Börsipäev 30.juuli - kuidas lõppeb nädal ja kuu?

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  • Mõned mõtted enne börsipäeva:

    • Põrge on olnud viimastel päevadel päris ilus ja praegu oman kuu lõikes oluliselt rohkem pikki positsioone. Põhjad on siiski protsessid (mitte hetked) ja turg peab põrke jätkumiseks ka lähipäevadel tugevust näitama. Kui nii ei lähe ja uuesti põhjade juurde minnakse, siis olen valmis positiivsuse kiiresti unustama - kauplemine nõuab suurt paindlikkust.

    • "Straddle enne tulemusi" strateegiat olen lahanud nii- ja naapidi, kuid LHV Pro alla panin üles ka selle strateegia edasiarenduse "Straddle enne FDA otsust" (loe siin). Raha peab küll ajaliselt veidi kauem kinni hoidma, kuid kokkuvõttes võib see viimane strateegia veelgi edukam protsentuaalselt olla.

    • Kuna olen straddle'de kohta väga palju küsimusi viimasel ajal saanud, siis esmaspäevaks panen üles väikese küsimuste-vastuste vooru, sealt ehk edaspidi kergem vastuseid saada.

    • USA majanduse koguvõlg (vaata siin). Iga kodaniku kohta 24 833 USD. Tõusvad intressid.

    • Kell 15.30 USA II kvartali SKP, number mis mõjutab päris tublisti nii aktsiaid, dollarit kui ka intressimäärasid.

  • Gapping Up

    GILD +10% (beats on revs and EPS; multiple upgrades), AIRT +12% (reports JunQ, short squeeze), MACE +19% ($3 mln share buy back plan, sells car wash; up in sympathy IPIX +5%, TBUS +2.8%), NTGR +16% (beats by $0.03), CKCM +16% (reports Q2), MONE +12% (beats by $0.04, Piper upgrade), GERN +6% (reports Q2), BSX +3.2% (BSX's Taxus drug-eluting stent is back on the shelves of Brigham & Women's hospital), KLAC +1% (beats by $0.03; WR Hambrecht upgrade).... Under $3: INFO +11% (beats by $0.12), BSQR +9% (reports Q2).

    Gapping Down

    MGAM -27% (misses by $0.02, misses on revs; CIBC downgrade), APCC -14% (misses by $0.07; JP Morgan downgrade), THQI -11% (misses, guides lower, Piper downgrade), FLML -8% (misses by $0.16), CDCY -3.3% (beats, but guides Y04 below consensus), SOHU -3%, INTC -1.5% (WSJ reports Intel is telling customers it won't meet a high-profile milestone for improving chip performance this year).... Under $3: PRTL -40% (misses qtr), DFIB -18% (reports Q2), CNXT -10% (reports in line, but guides SepQ below consensus).
  • GDP tuli tublisti alla ootuste (oodati +3.7, tegelik +3.0), aga nõrkusest juuni lõpus olid märku andnud juba ettevõtted oma kasumihoiatustega. Seega väga suur üllatus ei olnud ning futuurid väga palju ei kukkunud.
  • USA majandus oli teises kvartalis oodatust veelgi nõrgem ning majanduskasv vaatamata ülimadalatele intressimäärade oli 3% (oodati 3,7), samal ajal kergitati esimese kvartali kasvunumbrit 4,5 protsendile (varem oli number 3,9). Seega üks hea ja üks halb uudis.

    Energiahinna tõus tähendas inflatsiooni kiirenemist 3,3 protsendini. Föderaalreserv vaatab ise toidu ja energiahindasid mitte arvestava inflatsiooniga ning see number kerkis vaid 1,8%, esimeses kvartalis oli vastav number 2,1 protsenti.

    Makronumbritele reageerisid futuurid negatiivselt ning oodata on kerget avanemist allpool. Teise negatiivse faktorina on endiselt jõus kallinev nafta.

    Intel (INTC) teatas, et Pentium 4 ( 4 gigahertsine protsessor) esitlemine lükkub edasi järgmise aasta esimesse kvartalisse.

    Rev Shark:

    When the market is in a strong trend, certain plans tend to work quite well. If it's trending up, buying the dips often yield nice results. If it's trending down, selling or shorting the rallies is the path to profits. Of course, at some point the indices will undergo a change in the longer-term underlying trend and those simplistic approaches will fail to work, but while the trend is strong, this strategy can yield excellent returns.

    With that in mind, the question we need to contemplate is whether the recent market action is the start of a meaningful and lasting change in trend or just an opportunity to sell and/or short temporary strength.

    We shouldn't be at all surprised to see some bounce in the indices after the steep dive that has taken place throughout July. The selling was strong, steady and severe, and it is inevitable that the pressure would be dissipated to some extent by a bounce. What we need to do is examine this bounce to see if there are any indications that it's something more than just a run-of-the-mill oversold bounce.

    There are many things to consider when evaluating the possibility for a change in trend and making this judgment, but the three I like to focus on are volume; sentiment and psychology; and the technical conditions.

    The volume over the past few days does not reflect a sudden surge of buying by big institutions. All three of the major indices saw volume decline at least a little yesterday from already average levels. Given that we have a large amount of earnings reports hitting, we should have slightly higher volume anyway. The fact that volume isn't better reflects the hesitation of the big hitters to load up at this time.

    Sentiment and psychology are a much trickier thing to measure. The Investor's Intelligence survey has held steady with more than 50% bulls, even though the market has fallen sharply for several weeks. We never saw extreme readings in many of the sentiment indicators such as the VIX and put/call ratios, either. Mutual fund cash levels are at very low levels, according to recent reports. Despite that information, short-term bulls like Doug Kass on Street Insight believe that "most of my hedge fund cabal is positioned quite conservatively (read: underinvested/short)." In other words, Doug feels that the bulk of the market is too bearish and therefore ripe to be frustrated by a fairly sharp rally.

    One reason I don't share that view with Doug is that there seems to be so much focus on identifying a turn in the market at this point. The debate over whether we have seen the worst is very intense, and the spiky action tells me that many folks are anxious to embrace the idea of at least a big bounce. From my perch, sentiment just isn't negative enough to support a meaningful turn.

    The third consideration is the technical picture. All of the major indices are below their 50- and 200-day simple moving averages and are mired in downtrends that commenced at the beginning of the year. There is substantial overhead resistance on all the charts. We have little support and no meaningful bases. A lot of folks are holding positions with unrealized losses, and they will be happy to exit if they can do so close to even. There is nothing in the charts to lead us to believe that a bounce of meaningful magnitude is at hand.

    The technical picture brings up the related issue of the tendency of traders to sell the bounces in a downtrending market. My sense is that the bears are letting the bulls have their bounce now, especially in technology stocks, but they are going to short them aggressively as they hit overhead resistance. It is the money play in a market like this. Of course, if they are wrong, it adds substantial fuel to the upside as they are squeezed, but the bulls are going to have to be very aggressive to accomplish that.

    Overall I'm skeptical that we have anything more than an oversold bounce. That doesn't mean there aren't some good opportunities on the long side. There are, especially among stocks that have posted strong earnings reports.

    I'll be back with more in a bit.

    Gary B. Smith:

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