Börsipäev 23. august

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  • Alustuseks 1 lugu tänasest Äripäevast, :) ...

    USAs on levimas uus aktsiapettus, kus mesimagusa häälega naine jätab automaatvastajasse sõnumi, kiites täiesti väärtusetuid aktsiaid.

    Seejärel teatab helistaja, et sattus valeühenduse otsa, kirjutas Eesti Päevaleht Online.

    USA aktsia- ja börsikomisjon (SEC) andis eelmisel nädalal välja hoiatuse, kus selgitas pettust.

    Naine jätab automaatvastajasse intiimselt kõlava sõnumi oma sõbrale Tracy'le, öeldes, et aktsiahind on madal, aktsiaga kaubeldakse vähe, kuid kohe hakkab hind tõusma. Ta viitab, et sai teavet aktsia kohta „Evanilt, kuumalt börsikutilt, kellega ma käin“, vahendas New York Post.

    Aktsiahind on praegu 50 senti, kiud sel nädalal tõuseb ta 5-6 dollarile, nii et osta nii palju kui jaksad, teatab naine veel.

    SECi teatel on tegemist ilmselt pumpa-ja-loobu-skeemiga, kus helistaja loodab, et sõnumit kuulvad inimesed ostavad aktsiaid, tõstavad nõudlusega hinda ning kui aktsiahind on kasvanud, loobuvad petturid enda nimel olevatest aktsiatest, saades nii kasumit.

  • Gapping Up

    ARTI +21% (to be acquired by ARM Holdings), IPAS +11% (announces deal with Boeing), COMS +8% (may double or even triple if things go right -- Barron's), IMOS +8% (started with Overweight at Lehman), MNST +7.2% (Cover Story in Barron's), MEDX +6.6% (Special Protocol Assessment agreement with FDA), MYL +6.6% (granted FDA approval for generic Lopressor, Zyrtec and Zoloft), OVTI +5.1% (Piper earnings preview), GNSS +4.9% (wins patent infringement cases), FDX +2.3% (guides higher).... Under $3: STEM +25% (receives patent), ASTM +17% (in sympathry with STEM), VPHM +17% (exercises option to license co's intranasal pleconaril).

    Gapping Down

    ARMHY -19% (to acquire ARTI), NTMD -5.4% (negative WSJ article), NT -3.4%, CYBX -3% (AG Edwards says a merger with ANSI is not likely), WMT -1.3% (lowers same store guidance).
  • USA turud on avanemas plussis. Nafta hind on langenud alla 47 dollari barreli eest. Euroopa turgudel on suurimateks tõusjateks lennufirmade aktsiad, mis kannatasid eelmisel nädalal enim nafta hinna kerkimise tõttu.

    Maaklerfirmadest kergitas UBS Philipsi (PHG) reitingut ning Merill Lynch lisas aktsia oma Euroopa fookusnimekirja. Euroopa turgudel kerkis aktsia 3,5%.

    UBS alandas maaklerfirma Merill Lynch (MER)  kasumiprognoose 5% võrra. 2004. aastaks prognoositakse aktsia kohta 4,28 dollari suurust kasumit.

    Valuutaturgudel on nafta hinna langus mõjutanud positiivselt USA dollari kurssi . Lisaks on positiivselt mõjunud investorite ootused intressimäärade tõstmise osas.

    Rev Shark:

    After struggling through July and half of August the bulls finally tasted a little victory last week. It was quite a relief for the long-suffering bulls to rally nicely even as crude oil approached the $50 a barrel mark.

    Even though the low-volume nature of the move is of definite concern there are some positives to consider, such as the excellent breadth and the strong action in a variety of individual stocks, especially some small-caps. The fact that we shrugged off oil prices, continued struggles in Iraq and mediocre economic news was impressive.

    What we have to watch for now is overconfidence. Many of us are inclined to declare that the worst is over and that it is clear sailing. In fact, things are likely to become tougher rather than easier. Technical resistance becomes increasingly tough as traders protect recent gains and the bears consider new entry points for shorts. The oversold pressure on the market has been relieved to a great extent and that will no longer be a driver.

    I've been whining about the low-volume nature of this bounce and I keep hearing from folks who say, "It's August and everyone is on vacation so it isn't important." Yes, August does typically tend to produce low volume and perhaps that is why September is historically the worst month of the year for the market. Seasonality is an issue that we need to keep in mind going forward.

    The real problem with volume isn't that it is light compared to what it is during other times of the year, but that it is light compared to the volume that we saw on the way down. Ideally we fall on light volume and rally on increased volume. That didn't happen on this bounce. We didn't see any increase in volume over what we had in the preceding weeks. That is not what lasting rallies are made of. That doesn't mean the bulls can't keep this move going but they are going to need big institutional buyers to start showing more interest soon.

    Don't let a little taste of victory make you reckless. If anything you should be more vigilant that ever for signs that this bounce may lose its vigor. Our inclination is to want more of the same after we have had a taste and it is easy to be a bit rash in our decision-making.

    We have a slightly positive open on the way. European markets are seeing a bit of a bounce as technology stocks recover but Asian markets are weighed down by the move in oil. Oil is holding fairly steady around $46.70 so far.

    We don't have any economic news on the calendar today. Analysts are beating up the brokers, which are struggling due to the lackluster market we've had so far this year. Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) is reducing sales forecasts and is blaming hurricanes Bonnie and Charlie for affecting sales at 300 of its stores. We are likely to see some other economic fallout there as well.

    Gary B. Smith:

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