Börsipäev 26. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA turgudel avanemise eel suuri muutusi pole toimunud, vaid nafta hind on kukkunud alla 43 dollari, mis võib turu tõusule katalüsaatorina mõjuda.

    Negatiivse uudisena avaldati täna töötu abiraha taotlejate number, mis kerkis 10 000 võrra 343000 taotluseni. Peamiseks põhjuseks on toodud orkaan Charley mõju.

    Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) alandas oma 2005. aasta kasvuprognoose 20-25 protsendilt 15 protsendile. Aktsia on eelturul pea 20% miinuses. Teine samas vallas tegutsev kohvikukett Starbucks (SBUX) aktsia on samuti löögi alla, firma augustikuu müük kerkis 8%, samas kui oodati vähemalt kahekohalist kasvunumbrit.

    Charles Norton:

    Good morning. Thanks to Rev Shark for letting me fill in while he's away; I'm looking forward to sharing my thoughts with you today.

    The major indices all closed stronger yesterday, thanks primarily to the sharp drop in oil, which has lost 10.7% over the past four days. It's down again this morning and now has a $43-handle, when just last week all the talk was where it was headed after it hit $50 a barrel. While volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq increased slightly from Tuesday's anemic levels, it still came in very light and below average, which is not unusual for late August when most of Wall Street goes away.

    In fact, since stocks bottomed almost two weeks ago, there has not been a single day of above average volume, signifying that institutional investors are sitting this move out. One of my concerns is that low-volume rally attempts, without participation from the big money, are more likely to fail. I'm also apprehensive because the S&P and Dow never had a follow through. Only the Nasdaq, which is the weakest of the three, managed that. There also doesn't seem to be any clear leadership.

    There's a subtle difference between an oversold bounce and a sustainable rally. New bull markets begin with a follow-through day and gains on sharply higher volume as institutional investors pile in. Take last March, for example. Volume on the S&P was above average for eight straight days as the market bottomed, signaling that the big funds were putting money to work. New leadership also becomes clear when a sustainable rally is underway, as stocks with strong earnings and sales growth begin to break out from sound price bases.

    By contrast, the current rally seems to be an oversold bounce following six weeks of heavy selling. Volume during this bounce has been non-existent, and while a few stocks are breaking out, in my opinion metals and transports are not the type of sectors that are going to lead during a new bull market. An increase in short interest, which at 7.675 billion shares now stands at the highest level in the past year on the NYSE, has helped support stocks.

    Clearly, institutions are on the sidelines, and with volume light, stocks are easily whipped around by the news of the day. The market continues to be driven by economic, political and terror news. Until these issues begin to get resolved the market may have a hard time making headway. Now we're right back into resistance and a retest of the August lows seems more likely than a march towards yearly highs. I'm playing it this way and using the strength to reduce my exposure.

    But discipline dictates in my book, and so if I see something that were to change my mind, I'll reverse course and let you know.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    ZIGO +14% (beats by $0.08, beats on revs), GILD +4.2% (announces positive preliminary reults from Study 934), TASR +4.2% (receives follow-on order), EXM +3.4%, APOL +2.8% (guides for Y05).... Under $3: STKR +34% (supplies lasers to BAE which was awarded a US contract), DFIB +13% (announces largest govt purchase of AEDs in history).

    Gapping Down

    KKD -19% (misses by $0.10; guides Y04 revs below consensus), CECO -10% (FT reports that the US DOJ has launched an investigation into CECO), OMNI -20% (files 10-Q), CMOS -8% (beats, but guides Q4 lower), FRED -7.5% (delays qtr release until later today), AHO -7.1% (reports a weaker-than-expected 2Q), SBUX -4.7% (Aug comp store sales), CYBX -4.5% (Piper downgrade), DLTR -4.2% (reports Q2), SINA -3.9% (chairman denies rumours of stake sale to Yahoo), EYET -2.8% (analyst comments on briefing documents), IMCL -1.8%.
  • Nokialt tulemas uus 9300

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