Börsipäev 10. september

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  • USA turud on avanemas miinuses. Negatiivsega tuli turule alumiiniumitootja Alcoa, samas kiitis kohus heaks Oracle ostupakkumise PeopleSoft ülevõtmiseks.

    Peoplesoft (PSFT) aktsia on eelturul 13% plussis ning Oracle (ORCL) vaenulik ülevõtmine võib isegi teostuda, sest kohus lükkas tagasi kaebuse, et Oracle ülevõtupakkumine rikub trustidevastast seadust.

    Augustis langes tootjahinnaindeks 0,1% (ei arvesta toiduainete ja energiatootmist), samal ajal oodati väikest kasvu. USA kaubavahetusdefitsiit vähenes juulis 8,9 protsenti 50,1 miljardile dollarile, ootused olid 2 miljardi dollari osas suuremad.

    IT teenuseid pakkuv EDS (EDS) võib koondada kuni 20 000 töötajat kahe järgneva aasta jooksul. Teine negatiivne uudis turu jaoks tuli Alcoalt (AA), alumiiniumitootja aktsia kaotas eelturul 7% väärtusest kui teatas, et kolmanda kvartali prognoose täita ei suudeta.

    Rev Shark:

    The semiconductor sector has been one of the worst-performing groups of 2004, downtrending for over nine months. A surprisingly weak midquarter update by Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) a week ago sent the group down once again and many of the bullish supporters of the group, such as Tom Kurlak, threw in the towel. The thinking was that yes, things looked bad, but they could still get worse.

    Yesterday Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) and National Semi (NSM:NYSE) issued generally good reports but offered weak guidance. The typical reaction to such news would have been negative, but the action in the group had been so bad for so long that many folks started thinking that the worst had already been fully priced in and things can only get better from here.

    The optimistic buyers jumped in, the shorts covered and the bargain hunters hurried to join the party so they wouldn't be left behind. The end result was one of the best days technically for the Nasdaq since June.

    The question we confront this morning is whether chip stocks can continue to attract enough buyers who think the absolute worst is already priced in. The key here is solid follow-through. If yesterday marked the bottom then within three to 10 days we should see another strong upward move in the group on high volume. That would be the signal that momentum has indeed shifted.

    The interesting paradox now is that the strength in the chip stocks helped the Nasdaq produce exactly the sort of follow-through day that confirms a trend. What is going on is that there is rotation from group to group, and this is holding the indices up even though there is no one group that can be deemed the "leadership."

    Yesterday was a good example. Although the chips were strong there was weakness in other key groups such as retailers, Internets and drugs. Financials also floundered, although they had be the key leadership group recently.

    The theme right now is "rotation." There are some good pockets of strength to be found but they are shifting quickly. Whether the indices can work higher depends on the groups performing in tandem. If chips prove to be more than a one-day wonder and if financials, retailers and biotech can regain their recent momentum the indices will be in good shape.

    One of the big things this market has had going for it recently is a high level of skepticism. The rally in chips may now result in enough of an increase in bullishness that scaling the wall of worry may become more difficult. Traders love the chips and when they embrace them, bullishness rises quickly. A high level of bullish is the one thing that folks like Helene Meisler see missing before a short-term top will come into play.

    I remain concerned about seasonality and am skeptical that technology stocks can regain substantial upside momentum now. That doesn't mean there aren't some good trades to be had but I'm sticking with short time frames.

    We have a slightly positive open shaping up while we wait for the PPI report. Overseas markets were mixed but investors are hopeful that chips will come through again.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    WLDA +43% (wins large Defense contract -- Reuters), Up in sympathy: AIRT +7.2%.... Other News: PSFT +12% (Judge rules in favor of ORCL making merger more likely, some analysts think ORCL may increase bid), NTSL +22% (to be acquired by Cisco), LNDC +11% (Roth upgrade; tgt upped to $12), GNVC +9% (positive Phase I data), EBKR +6.5% (momentum from yesterday's 23% move), MOBI +5.3% (BusinessWeek profile), AKS +4% (JP Morgan upgrade), TTWO +3.4% (reports JulQ), BEAS +3% (BofA speculates BEAS could be part of a merger in the future), ORCL +2.8% (see PSFT), TASR +2.3% (bounces from 10% sell-off yesterday; short squeeze).

    Gapping Down

    VC -13% (to charge related to Ford; cut to Underperform at CSFB; tgt cut to $5 from $11), AA -5% (cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley following preannouncement), SCUR -6% (Wedbush downgrade), ATML -4% (guides Q3 revs lower; RBC downgrade), ISIL -4% (guides Q3 EPS and revs below consensus), AMTD -1.5% (reports Aug metrics).... Under $3: TMTA -15% (lowers rev guidance), BPUR -15% (supplements existing shelf registration), UAIR -6% (to file bankruptcy on Sunday - NY Times).
  • Pooljuhid üritavad taas turgu vedada. Põhiliselt tuleb see tõus shortide hirmust ja katmisest, tõusu pikkus sõltub seega paljuski sellest tegurist.

    Ja veel, JP Morgan daungreidis (jah, reiting toodi tõesti allapoole) Nokiat (NOK), aktsia selle peale eriti siiski ei liigutanud.
  • Alcoa (AA) on ikkagi korralik tööstugigant ja -8% liikumisi teeb päevas üliharva, enamasti ei liigu majandustulemuste pealegi eriti. Täna aga selline miinus kasumihoiatusele järgnes, kuna AA on Dow Jones indeksi üks oluline komponent, siis see langus tähendab ka 20 punkti miinust Dow-le. Seal ka üks peamine põhjus, miks ka täna Nasdaq plussis ja Dow miinuses.
  • Sel aastal hakkab 9/11 jälle läbi saama ja tundub, et mingit pauku ei tule. Mõned kommentaarid pooljuhtide kohta:

    JP Morgan in Asia expects Semi Capital Equipment stocks to be in a "bottoming process" through 3Q04 based on incremental negative news flow offset by valuation support, after which they think an early stage recovery is likely in anticipation of a re-acceleration in 2Q05. Based on discussions with contacts at multiple equipment co's last week, firm says it is clear that a Japanese-domiciled flash memory J.V. between a US chipmaker and a Japanese chipmaker has surfaced recently and intends to place an order for 10k W.S.P.M. in 4Q04, which firm estimates is worth about $500 mln to the equipment industry, and says was not expected and factored into guidance. JP Morgan expects equipment stock valuations to provide support in a near-term bottoming process as incremental negative newsflow materializes in Q3 pre-announcement and earnings season. Firm sees LRCX, KLAC, and ASML as very attractive, and highlights LRCX.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley issue an "attractive" rating on the European semiconductor stocks. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the valuations of the global semiconductor stocks are unlikely to decline significantly in the near term. Given the current attractive valuations and in-line end demand, the European semiconductor stocks are expected to offer reasonable returns in the near term, the analysts say. Morgan Stanley prefers the stocks of ASML Holding (Nasdaqil kaupleb sümboli alla ASML) and Infineon Technologies (NYSEl kaupleb sümboli all IFX) in the sector

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