Börsipäev 23. -24. märts

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  • Rev Shark:

    On Cusp of a Trend Change, the Game Plan
    3/23/05 8:13 AM ET

    "First comes spring and summer, then we have fall and winter, and then we get spring and summer again. There will be growth in the spring." -- Chance the Gardner

    "I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature but we're upset by the seasons of our economy." -- Benjamin Rand

    -- From the movie "Being There"

    The one great certainty in the stock market is change. Trends always end, new ones emerge and the cycle repeats. It is as inevitable as the seasons but investors have great difficulty embracing change. They become frustrated when a cycle of growth ends and one of death and rejuvenation begins.

    Investors are now dealing with a transition from one cycle to another. We have been in a rising interest rate environment for a while now but the Federal Reserve accelerated matters with some not-so-subtle language about increased inflationary concerns. Signs of inflation, especially in commodities, have been around for a while and all that the FOMC has done is acknowledge it and make it clear that it will aggressively deal with the problem.

    Our job as investors is to recognize the change that is taking place -- the acceleration of inflationary concerns -- and to find ways to deal with it as we wait for the next step in the inevitable cycle to emerge. This isn't a time to do battle and curse what is happening; it is a time to understand the dynamics at work and find ways to deal with them.

    The one thing that should be clear is that inflation is not good for the bulls. When inflation and rates rise, bonds start to become a more attractive alternative to investors looking for yield. Individual stocks may find profits squeezed, which can make equities less enticing.

    The first thing we need to think about is which stocks tend to do well in inflationary environments. Technology and health care companies that don't carry large inventories are often better performers when prices are rising. They are able to pass along increased costs and aren't squeezed by price increases from suppliers.

    I've been talking about the possibility of a rotation into technology and biotechnology for a while now and becoming increasingly confident that it is just a matter of time before those groups start to lead. Increased inflation concerns may be the catalyst that triggers that move.

    We have sharp drops this morning in oil, gold and other commodities as the dollar accelerates. Obviously money is shifting from those recent leaders as well as homebuilders and other cyclical plays. The cash needs a place to go and the most logical place is technology stocks that offer good "value." A lot of technology stocks are expensive but there are some interesting "growth at a reasonable price" plays, especially in smaller and secondary stocks.

    Biotechnology is a sector that is little affected by inflationary concerns and may be viewed as a safe haven for investors looking to shift some cash. Keep an eye on that group for signs of relative strength.

    Most importantly we have to keep an eye on the big picture. All of the major indices are in downtrends now and have technology damage to contend with. The worst thing we can do is look for the trends that accelerated yesterday to suddenly end. This market is not healthy and it is a mistake to think otherwise.

    Early action is flat. Overseas markets were slammed. The sharp fall in oil is helping matters but we have inventory numbers that will be carefully watched. We also have CPI, which is particularly important as sensitivity to inflation increases.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    ATPL +34% (announces special dividend of $12.50/share), XMSR +3% (starting in 2006, XM radios will be factory-installed in all Hyundai models), CPWR +3% (IBM Settlement; BofA upgrade), ELTK +20% (extension of 95% move yesterday), GIGA +11.3% (signs contract with Boeing), BOSC +20% (signs contract with Israeli aircraft industry), HUN +3.1% (recent IPO started with a Buy at Merrill, UBS and Deutsche, $32, $31, $30 tgts ), BOOM +3% (extension of recent momentum), INNO +3%, EYET +2.4% (Merrill Lynch believes Macugen's launch is surpassing expectations).

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: ORCL -1.7%, CCBL -10.5%, ESIO -4.4%.... Other News: VISG -9%, GMTN -5.2% (FBR downgrade), SCIX -5%, PDLI -3.3% (Nuvion update), STTS -2.6%, AHL -2.3% (prices secondary offering), LOGI -2.2%, TXU -1.7% (SEC subpoena).
  • Nafta -4%, turg plussis ja EUR/USD juba isegi läbi 1.30 kukkunud.
  • Nafta on paarikümne aasta pärast tähtsusetu produkt (vähemalt kütuse toorainena).Alternatiive on kindlasti juba mitmeid millede kasutusse jõudmine on lähitulevik.
  • ja need alternatiivid oleksid siis mis? zero point energy?
  • Samuti tahaks vihjata, et nafta ei ole mitte ainult energia. Naftasaadused on terve rea muude toodete lähtematerjaliks. Kas isegi mitte plastide tegemine ei lähtu naftakeemiast?
  • Usa tarbimise põhjal (2003, thousand barrels per day):

    Asphalt and Road Oil - 503
    Aviation Gasoline - 18
    Distillate Fuel Oil - 3937
    Jet Fuel - 1574
    Kerosene - 55
    Liquefied Petroleum Gases (ie propane) - 2068
    Lubricants - 141
    Motor Gasoline - 8937
    Petroleum Coke - 454
    Residual Fuel Oil - 772
    Other* - 1585
    Total - 20044

    * - Pentanes plus, petrochemical feedstocks, still gas (refinery gas), waxes, and miscellaneous products. Beginning in 1964, also includes special naphthas. Beginning in 1981, also includes negative barrels per day of distillate and residual fuel oil reclassified as unfinished oils, and other products (from both primary and secondary supply) reclassified as gasoline blending components. Beginning in 1983, also includes crude oil burned as fuel

    Kui alustada autokütuse asendamisest, siis on võimalik olulist kokkuhoidu saavutada küll. Kuid majanduse sõltuvus naftaproduktidest on ikkagi väga tugev. Üks tähelepanek veel - nafta ei ole homogeenne, igast nafatatüübist kõike teha ei saa. Naftal on olulisi kvalitatiivseid erinevusi, millega peab ka kindlasti arvestama.

  • Rev Shark:

    Tech, Biotech, Here We Come
    3/24/05 8:14 AM ET

    "If confusion is the first step to knowledge, I must be a genius."

    -- Larry Leissner

    A scenario of falling crude oil and commodity prices, even as inflationary concerns increase, has created a confusing and uncertain market. Throw in poor technical conditions, terrible breadth, weak small-caps and oversold readings and we have a real mess of a market to deal with.

    The bright side of chaos and confusion is that out of the ashes, new trends or themes often emerge. Change in the market never comes smoothly or easily. New trends begin in fits and starts and keep us guessing as to whether they are real. Only after the fact does it become obvious what metamorphosis we were undergoing.

    My working hypothesis is that we are undergoing a shift in leadership. The recent leaders have been groups such as homebuilders, steels, early cyclicals, commodity-related businesses and, most notably, oils. The Nasdaq and technology stocks have been laggards since the first of the year. I believe there is a now a good chance that technology and biotechnology will start to outperform.

    The increased focus on inflation and interest rates in the past few days helps bolster that idea. Technology and biotech tend to be less affected by inflation than groups like housing and capital goods. Investors will realize this and start sifting through the underperforming technology stocks looking for safe havens.

    The problem with the rotation theory is that the overall market is in terrible shape technically, and the trend is clearly down. We may see some bounces but a new uptrend will not be easy to establish.

    Keep in mind that relative strength doesn't necessarily mean that a group is going up. It may simply mean that it is going down more slowly than the rest of the market. It's awfully tough to make money even in the strongest sectors of the market if those sectors are flat or down.

    Rotation into technology and biotechnology is my working hypothesis right now but that doesn't mean that I take action. It is just a theory that I want to keep in mind as I watch the action in this market unfold. If it does look like this is occurring I will be in good shape to jump on board since I am mentally prepared to act.

    We have a positive start on the way. The primary reason is that General Electric (GE:NYSE) has increased its earnings guidance by 1 cent and commented on "solid growth" in its markets. This is a market looking for good news and sometimes 1 cent is enough. Oil and gold are bouncing back up and bonds are trading up slightly.

    Don't forget that tomorrow is a market holiday so we should see trading slow down this afternoon as traders head for the exits and a long weekend.

    No positions in stock mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    YHOO +3% (announces $3 bln share repurchase), LEXR +91% (announces jury award of $380 mln against Toshiba), OATS +14% (SEC filing says Burkle beneficially owns 2.62 mln shares), AVM +8.3% (receives FDA approvable letter), PTIE +6.5% (announces positive phase III results on Oxytrex), VISG +6.2% (Defense Dept order), HYGS +5.2% (signs agreement with Hitachi Zosen), NVTL +5% (announces new model), BOOM +4.7% (extends recent momentum), ELTK +4.5% (extends recent momentum), ELN +4.4% (positive Piper comments), ALVR +3.6%, PIXR +2.3% (announces 2-for-1 split), Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: XRTX +12.4%, DRI +7.1%.... Under $3: BWEB +13.5% (extends 13% move yesterday), ENMD +7.7% (co and Celgene enter into licensing agreement).

    Gapping Down

    S -11% (Kmart merger-related - see 9:08 comment), GIGA -14% (profit-taking after 93% move yesterday), BHIP -12% (reports Q4), ADPT -7.4% (lowers guidance; RBC downgrade), WTSLA -6.3% (to delay Q4 results), ICOS -4.8% (poor clinical data; CSFB downgrade), QUIK -4.8%, MTLK -3.4% (guides lower), SNDK -2.9% (potential fall-out from Lexar's court victory - JP Morgan), ATYT -2.2% (reports FebQ), NOK -1.4%.
  • huvitav et taser on küll väga palju lühikeseks müüdud aga katmist küll eriti ei ole
    uudise peale oleks võinud arvata et tuleb kõvem positsioonide katmine
    ps. kuidas stop lossi panna kui pos on juba käes
    kas panen lihtsalt müügitehingu ja siis sisestan stopi hinna ja ongi kõik?
  • TASR ronis peale esmast spike'i veel tükk aega edasi, näeb välja küll shortide katmisena.
  • arvestades lühikeste positsioonide hulka tundub seda vähevõitu
  • Kõik ei torma kohe katma ja kindlasti tuli ka uusi shorte lisaks.
  • LEXR short siit 7.12, stop 7.26 - tundub huvitav.
    Viimased paar tundi voib tulla pikkade possude katmine - ees nii CC kui pikk nadalavahetus.

    short LEXR
  • Mis toimub LEXARiga? Hüpe 3-lt 7le ja seda peale pikka kukkumist.
  • LEXR kinni 6.83, valjumine ei onnestunud koige paremini.
  • tty, see juhtus:

    Lexar Media (LEXR) says jury finds Toshiba (TOSBF) and Toshiba America Electronic Components liable of breach of fiduciary duty and theft of trade secrets and awarded Lexar more than $380 mln in damages..

    Aktsia kohta tegi see $4.80 umbes ..
  • Hmm, hetkel tegin lühikeseks müügi, stop 7,15
    Kuid selle uudise valguses ei tundugi see enam nii hea mõte olevat.
  • LEXR on kõvas kahjumis ja põletab hoogsalt raha. Näiteks 4Q2004 kohta alandas ettevõtte hiljuti guidance'it, oodates kahjumiks $60-$65 mln. Sellises tempos jätkuks sellest summast 6 kvartaliks ... aga lühikeseks müümisel on ohtusid kolm: 1) pricing pressuse sektoris väheneb, 2) saadud summaga suudetakse tootmist piisavalt efektiivsemaks muuta, praegu on Lexaril tootmine võrreldes konkurentidega kallim, 3) võimalikud uued positiivsed kohtuotsused, täna näiteks rääkis üks analüütik $1 bln võimalikkusest. Nii et risky bet both ways.
  • vääääga roheline on olla. (aga vähmalt korralikus kasumis).
    Stop allapoole ja pühasid pidama
  • 16:27 LEXR sees Q1 -$0.14-0.18 vs -$0.29 consensus; sees revs 'at least $200 mln' vs $179.33 mln consensus
    16:25 LEXR prelim -$0.80 vs -$0.72 consensus; revs $188.5 mln vs $187.9 mln consensus

    Aktsia järelturul mõnevõrra üleval, ilmselt nii palju üles aktsia siiski ei jää. Mgmt's credibility on piisavalt kannatada saanud ilmselt, et analüütikud ilmselt ei usu neid prognoose. Just my guess.
  • Mõnevõrra üleval = $6.80 - $6.90 juures.
  • ilmselt esmaspäev algab kerge LEXR hüppga üles.
  • tty,

    kell 22.51 said teada paev vana uudise, tegid luhikeseks muugi (enne uudise teada saamist?), siis kahetsesid seda, kell 23.00 raakisid juba korralikust kasumist...No ei usu, et Sa nii suure kogusega opereerid, et u 10c liikumise puhul korralikust kasumist raakida.
    Kumb oled: virtuaalimees v kalamees?:)
  • Tere Spunk123,

    Ilmselt on meie kasumi "korralikuse" mõõde erinev. Antud juhul on minu jaoks kasum korralik võrreldes selle rahaga ja ajaga mis selle tekkimiseks kulus.
    Lühikeseks müügi tegin enne hüppe põhjuse teada saamist - kuna eeldasin et nii kiire hüpe peab alla tulema. Lühikeseks müügiks veendumusele andis kindlust juurde hinna kiire langemine. Lexerit olin mõnda aega jälginud ja kohtuprotsessidest olin teadlik - kuid ei pööranud sellele infole piisavat tähelepanu. Kui sain hüppe põhjuse teada siis hakkasin kahtlema kas ja kui pikalt langus kestab. See mure on siiani kuna miski ei välista uut ostuvaimustust esmaspäeval.

    Kuna sa tundsid huvi: siis jah on reaalne tehing - kuid väikese summaga, sest emeerika turg on võõras ja lühikeseks müüki olen varem vaid korra pruukind. Seega riskid minule mitmekordsed.

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