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Börsipäev 20. oktoober

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  • Rev Shark:

    Some Promising Signs of a Turn
    10/20/2005 9:09 AM EDT

    Success is not a place at which one arrives but rather the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey. --Alex Noble

    Yesterday was a very successful day for the bulls. After a poor earnings report from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), the mood was extremely negative. Early breadth was three decliners for every advancer and the selling was intense. After struggling for most the morning, the market slowly improved. Once the early highs were overcome, the buying accelerated and remained strong right to the closing bell. Volume was improved, breadth nicely positive and even Intel was back to even. It was a classic intraday reversal and accumulation day that was technically very bullish.

    The question we ponder this morning is whether this is the start of a bullish journey to greater heights or just a brief little buying flurry that will disappoint and disgust market participants who are eager for a better market. There are some indications that this is the start of more than just another brief bounce.

    From a fundamental standpoint, it was very bullish that the market could shrug off the poor report from Intel. The fact that the market rallied and Intel was basically unchanged tells us that the bad news was already priced into the market. This action tells us that sentiment was too negative and that most folks who were inclined to sell had already done so.

    Intel has had a history of being a catalyst for a change in overall market direction. General Electric (GE:NYSE) is often cited as a bellwether stock, but it really is Intel that leads the market more than any other. The action in Intel yesterday supports the idea that overall market psychology may be shifting. The recovery on bad news is a good start but we aren't out of the woods yet.

    In addition to what seems to have been an extreme level of negative sentiment we also had good technical conditions for a market recovery. After the nasty downtrend to start October we got an oversold/dead cat bounce. Of course the overanxious bottom callers were quick to tell us that we needed to rush in and buy and that the market was heading straight back up.

    Fortunately that didn't happen. The market sputtered out on Friday and Monday and started to pull back to recent lows. The selling on Tuesday morning helped to wash out the overanxious bottom callers and set the stage technically for a good bounce.

    The best technical bottoms come only when there are several failed bounces and retests of lows. That process moves stock from the hands of the skittish and uncertain into the grasps of the more confident and steady. Once that process is completed there is a launching pad from which to move higher.

    So we have some promising signs of a turn and we can be a bit more bullish, but keep in mind that the journey higher is not going to be an easy one. There are plenty of obstacles, most notably inflation and interest rate issues. We have a couple of poor earnings report from Amgen (AMGN:Nasdaq) and eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) this morning to contend with and we'll see how readily the market can shrug those off.

    A pullback here would not be a surprise and in fact, would be healthy as long as it doesn't go too far. The Nasdaq could give back 15 points this morning and retreat to 2075 and still be in good shape. However, if we go further than that and volume increases we'll have to increase our defensiveness quickly.

    Overseas markets were strong overnight in sympathy with our action. Crude oil is down and weekly unemployment was a bit lower than expected. We have a very slightly negative open on the way

  • Netflixi (NFLX) tulemused muidu OK aga murelikuks tegid juhtkonna kommentaarid VOD (video on demand) teemal. Nimelt ei näe nad ennast hetkel Tivo (TIVO)ga koostööd tegemas. Minu jaoks oli pigem ebameeldiv üllatus, sest pikemas perspektiivis on tegemist peamise kasvumootoriga. Pikemalt LHV Pro all veidi hiljem.

  • Kellel võimalus vaadata käibega graafikut, siis CVX täna väga inetu mustriga, ehk siis 5,6 miljonit Chevroni aktsiat müüdud. Sarnane blokktehing tehti Exxoni aktsiaga kui ühe tehingu käigus müüdi 23 miljonit aktsiat. Üsna inetuks on pilt muutumas naftasektori aktsiate jaoks.
  • Põhjamaades tulemas rekordkülm talv


    Kui jutt tõsi, siis peaks ostma Fortumit.
  • Google saavutas tänu suurepärastele majandustulemustele järelturul ajaloo kõrgeima hinnataseme, kerkides $330 piiri alla.

    Kasumit teeniti aktsia kohta $1.32, samas kui analüütikute ootused seisid keskmiselt $1.22 juures. Ka lõppenud kvartali käive suutis ootustest üle olla ($1,58 mld vs $1,46 mld).

    IPOst alates on Google nüüdseks tõusnud umbes 340% ning järelturul kaubeldakse umbes 46-kordsel järgmise aasta ennustataval kasumil, mida on kohandatud erakorraliste teguritega (EPS $7,14). Sellega ollakse P/E osas konkurent Yahoo'ga umbes ühes hinnas. 

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