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Börsipäev 29. märts

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  • Bulls Get the Nod

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/29/2006 8:47 AM EST

    "Surprises are foolish things. The pleasure is not enhanced, and the inconvenience is often considerable." -- Jane Austen
    There was nothing particularly surprising about the Fed's decision to raise interest rates again, or its murky policy statement. The Fed's fairly confident about the economy, worried about inflation, and it isn't going to tell us what it plans to do probably because it doesn't even know that answer itself.

    Despite what seemed like just a continuation of the status quo, the federal funds rate, which tracks the odds of what the Fed might do, now shows a 40% chance of two more hikes when only one more hike was widely expected previously. Obviously if fed funds rates jumped to that degree, someone was surprised and underestimating the hawkishness of the Fed until very recently.

    The question for us to ponder is the impace this will have on the stock market. Do we need to price in further interest rate hikes or have they been discounted already? You will find some good arguments for the proposition that the market not only has failed to price in two more hikes but has been ignoring interest rate pressures for a while. How in the world can all of the major indices be sitting at or near highs when we have inflationary pressures and rising interest rates?

    The answer is that maybe the economy is in better shape than some think. High interest rates are a negative because they increase the cost of doing business and they hamper economic growth, but the Fed seems to be telling us that the economy is actually chugging along very nicely and that is why we have to keep an open mind about further rate hikes.

    I'm not going to delve too much into the macroeconomic arguments because when it's all said and done, the only thing that matters is what the market is telling us. Although there seems to be a very high level of concern that we need a rest and are due for a pullback, the technical picture of the market remains strong.

  • Üsnagi intrigeeriv börsipäev, intressimäära tõstmisele järgneval päeval kombivad turgu tavaliselt suuremad fondid. Laiapõhjalised ja vana majanduse indeksid nagu Dow ja S&P 500 pole hommikust tugevust suutnud hoida ning miinusesse minekule õige lähedal, Nasdaq seevastu maaklerfirmade toel kenas plussis.
    Omaette teemadeks Apple ja Google, Apple puhul ei taha ükski toetustase enam püsida ning Google on S&P 500 indeksisse lisamisest saanud tuule tiibadesse.

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