Börsipäev 4. oktoober - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 4. oktoober

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  • Wal-Mart teatas, et muudab varasemat Same-Store-Sales oodatavat müüginumbrit septembri 5-nädalase perioodi jaoks 1.8% pealt 1.3% peale. Arvestades, et kõige esialgsem vahemik oli ikkagi 1% kuni 3% ja keskmiselt oodati, et number tuleb vahemiku ülemisse äärde, siis nüüdne on vahemiku alumises ääres.
    Eile täitis Wal-Marti aktsia pärast oodatava septembri SSS numbri 1,8% avalikustamist allapoole tehtud gapi. Praegune 1.3% prognoos mõjub nüüd küll nagu hane selga külm vesi, mistõttu on punktine allapoole avanemine igati loogiline.

    Täna langetas Prudential omapoolseid toornafta ja maagaasi hinnaprognoose. Oluliselt langesid 4. kvartali prognoosid, kus nafta hinnaks ootab Prudential $63 barreli eest(varem oli $68) ja maagaasi eest $6.50/mcf(varem $7.50/mcf). Samas, 2007. aasta prognoosid jäeti muutmata, kus jätkuvalt oodatakse, et toornafta keskmiseks hinnaks kujuneb ca $65 barreli eest ning maagaas vastavalt $8/mcf.

    Turg avaneb miinuses

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    IMCL +8.4% (co discloses that Icahn rejected a $36/sh offer from a major pharmaceutical co; IMCL uses this as an example why shareholders should reject Icahn's attempt to dislodge board members), OMG +6.8% (guides sharply higher), CTDC +18% (extends yesterday's 19% move), SKS +5.3% (declares $4/sh special dividend), BOBE +5% (Sept same store sales), ARNA +4.3% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), WWW +4% (reports Q3 results; Matrix upgrade), MED +3.8% (CNBC stock picking champ Thomas Ko buying MED), LMIA +3.6% (announces Gulfstream contract), ARRS +3.2% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), ONNN +2.9%, CCOI +2.8% (RBC upgrade), SIRI +2.2% (announces subscriber data), HGSI +1.8% (reports significant progress on commercialization), CBEY +1.8% (prices offering), VLO +1.5% (provides guidance), MRVL +1.2% (recovers a bit after yesterday's 12% sell off), GM +1.2% (amends governance policies; Bear Stearns upgrade), Under $3: AVAN +18% (signs deal with Pfizer).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    AH -11.5% (guides sharply lower), HWAY -7.7% (guides AugQ below consensus), TIVO -7.2% (court allows sale of rival DVR; Bear Stearns downgrade; Kaufman reits Sell, lowers tgt to $5 from $7), WCI -6.7% (guides lower; also UBS downgrade), AVII -6.1% (disappointing clinical data), ACOR -5.7% (announces private placement), GERN -4.7%, LWSN -4.5% (reports AugQ), DIVX -3.4% (on Mad Money, Cramer says it's time to take profit after recent run-up), SIRF -3.1% (negative DigiTimes article), AMAB -2.7%, WMT -2.4% (lowers Sept comp guidance), XMSR -2.2% (Q3 subs below consensus), SYMC -2.2% (FBR downgrade), ISIL -1.9% (Piper downgrade), F -1.7% (Bear Stearns downgrade).
  • Täna kaupleb "investorite" lemmik AH ca 10% madalamatel tasemetel. Eilse Pru prognooside tõstmise peale lendas stock $3.

    Co lowers Q3 guidance to $0.55-0.65 vs $0.81 consensus, down from $0.75-0.80 prior guidance. The revised outlook primarily reflects the timing of revenue associated with ground vehicle supplemental armor programs for the M1114 Up-Armored HMMWV,
  • Hiljuti sai ENER tähelepanu osaliseks. 28. sept: Jefferies notes that at the Intel's Developers Forum, INTC displayed a prototype 128 MB wafer based on Energy Conversion's (ENER 33.70) phase change memory that it intends to use as a flash memory replacement. The firm believes this is a significant development that is likely to drive ENER's share price higher.

    Täna tuli initiga välja DB ja annab hinnasihi $44.
    Deutsche Bank initiates Energy Conversion Devices (ENER 35.16) with a Buy and $44 tgt, as they expect UniSolar to drive revenue growth and profitability by 2H07, and licensed PRAM technology to present a call option with substantial potential beginning in 2008
  • CIBC upgrades Cambridge Display Technology (OLED 5.66) to Sector Outperformer from
    Sector Performer and $9 tgt, based on P-OLED's increasing OEM acceptance and the substantial
    potential in providing high res/contrast, energy efficient, color displays for high-volume mobile devices.

    Kunagi kirjutasin OLED tehnoloogiast ka meie lehel. Huvi võib üles näidata ka PANL.
  • Still Passing on the Big-Cap Feast

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/4/2006 9:20 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't."
    BR/> -- Erica Jong

    My recent consternation over the strong but increasingly narrow market has generated a lot of well meaning advice. "Just buy big caps." "The big dogs are finally going to outperform and small-caps will continue to suffer." That's the tenor of the more polite mail I receive. If you look at the market action over the last month or so, that certainly was good advice. But will it continue to be good advice?

    Maybe, but even if big-caps do outperform that doesn't mean the best course of action will be to simply pile into them and then sit back and, hopefully, watch them rack up the gains. Even if they do well you have to keep in mind that they are not going to move that fast. General Electric is never going to be a high-beta, momentum stock even if it is outperforming the indices.

    I've been contemplating the best approach if we continue to see big-cap outperformance and it is clear to me that it would be a mistake to reinvent myself and start buying and holding big-caps. I might find some trades that require a bit more patience than I'm used to with smaller caps, but even in an environment where big-caps dominate there will be short-term opportunities in small stocks that have far more return potential than the big-caps.

    Big-caps are nice for big funds because they don't have major liquidity issues and they are easy to accumulate without having any major effect on price. Big funds prefer that, and the brokers and media have always been prejudiced toward the household names that everyone knows. It is much easier to hold the interest of the general public when you are discussing JC Penney (JCP:NYSE) vs. a Minrad (BUF:NYSE).

    I'll keep watching the big-caps and looking for some I might want to buy but the narrower the market gets and the more they outperform the more I worry about the overall health of the market. I believe that my chances of outperformance through the end of the year will be to stay focused on the high-beta, momentum stocks and to be aggressive when the opportunities do arise. They may underperform as a group but the individual opportunities will be far greater than in the land of giants.

    Wal-Mart put a damper on the early action by cutting its monthly sales forecast. Asian markets were weak on weak commodity prices and some rumbling about nuclear testing by North Korea but Europe benefited on lower oil. We have Fed head Ben Bernanke on the calendar this afternoon so watch for blurbs from his speech.

    At the time of publication, De Porre was long BUF, although holdings can change at any time.
  • NVDA lendab kuuluka peale, et INTC võib olla firmast huvitatud.
  • NVDA message boardist võib veel leida:
    "Friedman Billings raises their tgt on NVDA to $34 from $32 saying their checks at NVDA and ATYT channel partners suggests that near-term conditions for NVDA remain strong, due to stabilizing PC build rates, as well as NVDA design wins resulting from ATYT roadmap uncertainty."
  • Kuuldavasti on turu tõusu taga osaliselt ka macro-hedge-fundid, mis on sidunud oma ostuprogrammid naftahinna langemisega.

    Retailerid on oma aasta tippudel (mis üldiselt indekseid vaadates ei ole üllatav). Arvan, et septembrikuiseid müügitulemusi teatavaks tehes näeme tugevat sell-on-the news reaktsiooni.
  • Oliver, kas selliste kuulujuttudelele nagu NVDA puhul, vastamine on kohustuslik või tehakse seda ainult siis, kui tõsi taga? Kas NVDA või tõenäolisemalt isegi Intel ei peaks mõne pressiteatega välja tulema?
  • Lissabon, reeglina on ettevõtetel strateegia, et selliseid rumoreid ei kommenteerita. Kui juba kommenteerid, võid sellega anda vihje jutu tõenäosuse kohta.
  • Lissabon, tõenäoliselt ei kommenteerita ja kohustuslik see ka ei ole. Kommivad võibla siis, kui kuulukad muutuvad liiga agressiivseks ja destabiliseerivad kauplemist tugevalt. Muidu tõin kommentaari lihtsalt välja, kuna aktsiakäive oli vägev ning tõus relatiivselt tugev võrreldes turuga. Sellised kommentaare liigub suht tihti ning hea on neid vähemalt teada.

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