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Börsipäev 24. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Latvia’s PPI up 13.2%. According to Statistics Latvia, producer prices in Latvian industry increased on average 13.2% in December yoy (0.7% sequentially). For full 2006, the producer prices increased 10.3% yoy, which is the steepest growth since 1996. The increase was mostly caused by price increase in the manufacture of wood and of products of wood.

    Ukraine’s inflation forecasted at 13.6%. The International Monetary Fund has worsened the Ukrainian inflation forecast from 13.5% to 13.6% this year, BBN wrote yesterday. IMF’s GDP forecast for 2007 remained unchanged at 4.5%. Particularly, the management board of the Fund pointed out the difficult investment situation in Ukraine, and a good elasticity of Ukrainian economy in conditions of the increasing prices of energy carriers and the country's higher internal balance.

    Nuclear plant to stock exchange? According to BBN, The Lithuanian Free Market Institute continues to urge the government to sell some stock of the future nuclear power plant on the stock exchange. According to the Institute, floating some of the shares on the stock exchange would highlight the advantages and potential problems of the new nuclear facility.

    Lattelecom to stock exchange? BBN wrote that there will be no swapping deal between Latvian state and TeliaSonera concerning the shares of Latvijas Moblais Telefons (LMT) and Lattelecom. Most likely is the alternative plan to turn Lattelecom into the public joint-stock company and to sell the shares on the stock exchange, the newspaper added.

    DTV could be delayed in Lithuania. This week, Lithuanian radio and television commission will review the request to postpone digital TV services until July. The request was made by some DTV broadcasters who are unhappy with TEO (Acc), since TEO failed to meet its obligations to reimburse the cost of DTV device acquisition for final services users, the broadcasters claim.

    Another retailer planning Baltic invasion. The German fashion retailer New Yorker plans to open new stores in the Baltics. In May, the company will open a store in Riga. It has signed a rental agreement for three floors of the Fitinghof building in central Riga until 2018. In addition, the retailer also plans to enter Estonian market this year by setting up a store, and plans to open another three stores in Latvia and Lithuania. New Yorker was established in 1971 and currently runs 470 stores in European capital cities i.e. it is almost 5x as big as Baltika (Neutral). Clearly, the Baltics with its 7m population and 20% annual retail sales growth is a region tempting many big European players. This summer Marks & Spencer opened its first store in the Baltics in Riga.

  • Kui tõenäoline on Lattelekomi IPO?
    Kas Eesti Telekom saab pärast seda TeliaSoneralt loa laieneda Lätti?
  • Lattelecomi IPO mõtted on hetkel suhteliselt algses järgus. Minu teada lihtalt tutvustati valitsusele eile erinevaid alternatiive ja IPO oli üks võimalikest. Erinevate alternatiivide hindamist veel ei ole tehtud ja seega tegelikkuses praeguse info põhjal on IPO kohta raske midagi enamat öelda.

    Kui Lätti laienemine TeliaSonera erinevate tütarde vahel enam konkurentsi ei põhjusta, siis usun et laienemise tõenäosus kasvab. Senini on TeliaSonera selle konkurentsi koha pealt jah suhteliselt ranget joont hoidnud.
  • Lisaks veel ... varasemalt on TeliaSonera vist öelnud, et kui konkurentisküsimus enam päevakorras ei ole, siis on Lätisse laienemine juba Eesti Telekomi enda otsustada.
  • Bear Stearns

    - downgrades Pfizer (PFE) to Peer Perform from Outperform;

    - downgrades Oil Service & Equipment sector to Market Weight from Overweight. Firm downgradeson warm winters, Grant Prideco (GRP) (PT $60 ), Weatherford (WFT) (PT $55 ) , Dresser Rand(DI) (PT $30 ),Pride International (PDE) (PT $42 ) and TODCO (THE) (PT $55 ) downgraded toPeer Perform from Outperform. Union Drilling (UDRL), ENSCO (ESV) downgraded to Underperformfrom Peer Perform.

    Goldman Sachs

    - mentions positively on Research In Motion (RIMM), says the enterprise market shows strength inboth US and Europe and that checks are likely to show an impact from the recent increase incarrier subsidies due to consumer demand. 12-month target is $185;

    - upgrades Homebuilding sector to Neutral and several individual changes. Firm cites a slowing ofthe recent decline, though is still concerned with the fundamentals.

    - upgrades: DR Horton (DHI), MDC Holding (MDC) to Buy from Neutral. Toll Brothers (TOL) toBuy from Sell, Ryland (RYL) to Neutral from Sell.

    - downgrades: Hovnanian (HOV), Meritage(MTG) to Neutral from Buy. Lennar (LEN) to Sell fromNeutral, M/I Homes (MHO) to Sell from Buy.


    - initiates Comcast (CMCSA) with an Overweight rating and Price target of $52.

    JMP Securities

    - upgrades Cardinal Health (CAH) to Market Outperform from Market Perform. Price target of $80is established.


    - closes out seasonal and "Alpha Bets" calls in semicap equipment. Firm is closing out the "bottomcall" it made in August 2006 but maintains a bullish secular bias. JPM notes its powder isdry to get more positive when it senses the time is right from a valuation, cyclical, and seasonalperspective. If further notes its expectation that equipment stocks will outperform the market in2H07;

    - upgrades Intuit (INTU) to Overweight from Neutral, believes this tax season will be strong favoringQuickBooks.

    Merrill Lynch

    - downgrades Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) to Neutral from Buy;

    - reinstates Cablevision (CVC) with Buy, prior rating for the shares was Neutral;

    - initiates MasterCard (MA) with Neutral;

    - upgrades Texas Instruments (TXN) to Buy from Neutral with Target $35.

    Morgan Stanley

    - reduces equity allocation to Neutral from Overweight. Firm is selling equities and raising cash,making cash the largest overweight in its asset allocation. Bonds remain Underweight. MerrillLynch (MER) is removed from Rising ROE Bucket, while Merck (MRK) is added to MispricedGrowth Bucket;

    - downgrades Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ) to Equal-Weight from Overweight. Price target decreasedto $36 from $39;

    - downs Motorola (MOT) to Equal-Weight from Overweight.

  • Eilne börsipäev: http://www.lhv.ee/forums/index.cfm?id=139921

    Foster Wheeler-i (FWLT) ostmine Jacobs Engineeringu (JEC) heade tulemuste peale oli päris elegantne. Eriti tore on näha, et sama ideega tuli välja kaks inimest.

    JEC on üks suuremaid E&C (Engineering and Construction) tegijaid ning suurem osa nende tuludest tuleb just nafta ning maagaasi väljapumpamisega ning refineerimisega seotud sektoritest. Kuna nafta ja maagaasi hind on viimasel ajal tippudest oluliselt alla tulnud, siis oodati selle negatiivse mõju kajastumist ka investeeringutes. Vähenenud investeeringud tähendaksid väiksemaid tulusid ka E&C firmade jaoks.

    JEC-i head tulemused ning üllatuslikult 2007. aastaks tõstetud kasumiprognoosid lubavad aga arvata, et investeeringute maht ei ole siiani vähenenud.

    Miks FWLT ostmine JEC-i kommentaaride peale oli elegantne? Põhjus päris lihtne. FWLT on E&C sektoris kõige suuremat nafta exposuret omav tegija. Lisaks sellele on tegemist väga volatiilse aktsiaga, mis on kauplejate poolt armastatud.

    Sarnased tegijad on veel FLR, SGR ning CBI. Viimasel oli ka uudis.

    Tänane küsimus: Miks kukkusid eile Checkfree (CKFR) aktsiad?
  • CKFR customers BAC and WG broke out banking and bill pay metrics following earnings. Some of those metrics were not as strong as traders/investors would have hoped. Street expectations were for a sequential uptick in growth trends due to seasonal patterns, at both BAC and WG. That did not happen.

    Kas tänaseks on mingeid ideid parem?
  • Dogma Has No Place in Stocks

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/24/2007 8:48 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "A life based on reason will always require to be balanced by an occasional bout of violent and irrational emotion, for instinctual drives must be satisfied."

    -- Cyril Connolly

    The market is becoming increasingly difficult to navigate as the battle between logic and emotion intensifies. Although we have had some weakness, primarily in the technology sector, much of the market continues to hold up quite well. However, the action has been choppier and follow-through, either up or down, has diminished.

    The bears have had some recent success but the bulls remain in control. One moment it looks like we are ready to crack and the next it looks like new highs are on the agenda, which makes sticking to a strong opinion about market direction quite frustrating.

    In the current environment both sides are convinced the other side is being unduly emotional. The bulls believe the bears are blinded by negative emotions and the truth is that the economy is in pretty darn good shape, there is a high level of liquidity, and stocks are not outrageously overvalued. The bears believe the bulls have been sucked into unwarranted upward momentum that ignores issues like inflation, growth, and a technically extended market.

    Whatever your feelings about the market, keep an open mind in the short term if you hope to rack up some gains. Being overly dogmatic about market direction is going to cost you as volatility increases. There is money to be made on both sides of the market right now as the battle between logic and emotions plays out.

    Although the hard-core bulls and bears will tell you to stick with one thesis, the truth is that this is a time when moving fast and staying flexible are more important than usual. Don't forget to take gains into strength and don't be too fast to panic-sell on dips. Until we have a clearer technical picture we are going to have to keep on dancing to lock in some gains.

    We have a positive start on the way as Yahoo! and a few others in the technology group put up good earnings reports. Yahoo! sold off initially last night due to poor forward guidance but talk about its long-awaited Panama ad system turned the stock sharply higher. Panama is very similar to Google's system, which ranks search-engine ads by both the amount advertisers pay for keywords and the relevance of the ad, and apparently there are high hopes that being more Google-like will help Yahoo!. What is interesting to consider is that if Panama is such a great thing, why isn't Yahoo increasing its earnings guidance? In any event, the stock is up this morning despite a downgrade from Goldman.

    Oil and gold are driving big gains overseas. Also, hope that additional interest rate hikes will not be aggressive is helping London in particular. We have a pullback in oil and gold this morning after big moves yesterday and they should be in focus today.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: YHOO +5.4% (stock higher despite Goldman downgrade), TRCR +35%, HYSL +10% (also JMP Sec upgrade), SUNW +9% (also KKR to invest in convertible notes; also First Albany upgrade), EZPW +9.6%, CTXS +9.1%, RFMD +7.6%, SRT +5.8% (guidance only), DSPG +5.7%, STX +4.3% (also multiple price tgt increases), IDTI +4.1%, GLW +3.5%, NYB +1.1%... Other News: DMGI +33% (announces deal with Apple), MDCO +6% (co decides to not go ahead with stock offering), NXY +5.1% (extends recent momentum on takeover speculation), CSIQ +4.7% (announces contract with SolarWorld), MT +4.2% (extends recent move following favorable Dutch court ruling on Dofasco), NICH +1.9% (extends yesterday's 9% move on earnings report), EMC +1.4% (Bear Stearns upgrade), NOK +1.1% (up in sympathy with RFMD), SIRI +1.1%.

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: CLZR -18% (also Needham downgrade), AMD -6.6% (also multiple downgrades), QLGC -6.6% (also Baird downgrade), SUPX -6.4%, SAP -5.6%, ATI -3.4%, STLD -3.8%, HSY -3.6% (also names new C.O.O.), GD -2.3%, AMAG -2.2%, CHKP -1.6%... Other News: TNS -16% (co rejects buyout offer, updates outlook), NWACQ.PK -9% (Delta C.E.O. says not in merger talks with Northwest - Reuters), DSX -7% (prices offering), CAL -2.7% (JP Morgan downgrade), PEIX -2.6% (profit taking after stock ran ahead of state of the union address), YRCW -2.6%, AAV -2.2% (announces $100 mln financing), STP -1.7% (Morgan Stanley downgrade).
  • Jeffries kardab, et eilse etanooliaktsiate (PEIX, ANDE, VSE, DIL, DVSA, XNL) ralli näol võis tegu olla klassikalise "osta kuulujuttu" mänguga ning usub, et nüüd, kui State of the Union kõne on seljataga hakatakse taas keskenduma maisi hindade tõusust tulenevale marginaalide survele.

    BofA arvamus nafta rafineerijate koha pealt:

    BofA reaffirms Buys on refiners VLO and SUN; thinks TSO is the only refiner with potential 4Q earnings upside
    Banc of America reaffirms Buys on top picks Valero (VLO) and Sunoco (SUN). While they say investors may have to wait a month for the rally's catalyst (maintenance kicking in and demand reaccelerating in March), they would advise being early rather than late with equities trading near trough value of 7x expected P/E. Firm thinks Tesoro (TSO; reports Jan 29) should sustain recent gains as the only refiner with potential 4Q earnings upside.
  • Toornafta varud suurenesid 0.7 mln barreli võrra, keskmiselt oodati 1.3 miljonilist suurenemist.
    Distillatide varud suurenesid 0.7 mln barreli võrra, keskmiselt oodati 0.25 miljoni barrelilist vähenemist.
    Mootorkütuse varud suurenesid 4.0 mln barreli võrra, keskmiselt oodati 1.5 mln barrelilist suurenemist.
  • EBAY prelim $0.31 vs $0.28 Reuters consensus; revs $1.72 bln vs $1.67 bln Reuters consensus

    EBAY sees FY07 $1.25-1.29 vs $1.24 Reuters consensus; sees revs $7.05-7.30 bln vs $7.16 bln Reuters consensus

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