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Börsipäev 21. märts

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  • Täna teatab Föderaalreserv Eesti aja järgi kell 20.15 oma otsusest intressimäära poliitika osas. Viimaste päevade turuliikumine indikeerib, et oodatakse pisut positiivsemat nägemust Fed-ilt tuleviku osas. Tõde selle realiseerumise või mitterealiseerumise kohta selgub juba õige pea.

    Briefing.com aga näiteks ei näe põhjust varasema fed-i ettevaatliku nägemuse sõnastuse muutmiseks:

    Briefing.com expects the stated Fed outlook to remain the same as the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of forward policy adjustments will depend on the incoming data and the effect on the Fed's outlook. Briefing.com expects over time that the Fed's patience will bring reward as more modest price pressures come from the slower pace of growth without the economic risk of extending the policy tightening. Time will tell whether more tightening is in fact necessary.
  • Piper Jaffray upgrades Microsemi (MSCC 19.58) to Outperform from Market Perform and raises their tgt to $25 from $20, as they believe bookings have steadily improved so far this year for a business rebound in Q2 and in particular, feel that Microsemi's lack of exposure to the weaker pockets of end market demand such as handsets and PCs is a positive for the co's business in this environment

    Baird upgrades Valassis Communications (VCI 17.36) to Outperform from Neutral and raises their tgt to $25 from $18, as they believe the discounted valuation against conservative expectations provides an attractive risk/reward during a fairly uninspiring 1H07 as the integration of ADVO begins

    HSBC raises Oil Sector to Overweight from Neutral

    BofA initiates Fortress Investment (FIG 26.82) with a Buy and a $35 tgt

    Lehman initiates Fortress Investment (FIG 26.82) with an Overweig

    Credit Suisse adds Office Depot (ODP 35.48) to their U.S Focus List saying they view it as the most attractive risk reward profile in the retail hardlines group over the next 12-18 months. The firm also, says given the recent share price weakness, they believe investor expectations have been reset, limiting downside risk.

    NVIDIA (NVDA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

    OfficeMax (OMX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

    Täna hommikul on turud alustamas pigem positiivse tooniga. Tulemused on olnud samuti positiivsed:

    MS Morgan Stanley beats by $0.52 (76.11 ) Reports Q1 (Feb) earnings of $2.40 per share, $0.52 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.88; revenues rose 28.6% year/year to $11 bln vs the $9.36 bln consensus.

    Citigroup kommenteerib Oracle (ORCL ) peale tulemusi:

    ➤ Oracle delivered upside to Q3 with rev. of $4.45B (+26% y/y) beating our est.by $136m. EPS of $0.25 beat by $0.02, with net income up >30% y/y.➤ Middleware saw 82%, and apps 57% license growth, indicating that Oracle hasmomentum to get over the tougher rev comp in Q4 (24%). Guid. is just 5-15%license and 10-14% rev growth. Our est. are 10% license and 12% rev. growth.➤ While the slipped deals from Q2 did close, mgmt. indicated that quarters getdone by 1000's of deals. Additionally, renewable support rev. is approaching 50% of total rev., which aids margin expansion. ➤ With ~$5 upside to our TP, ORCL remains one of the cheapest names in our group. Maintain 1M and $23 target (20x FY08 EPS of $1.15).While FY08 will see more tough comps, the HYSL acq. could provide upside to FY08 est.

    Stock Market Beat analüüsib Adobe (ADBE) tulemusi.

    FedEx (FDX) kaupleb eelturul madalamal peale käibega prognoosidele allajäämist. Ettevõtte tulemusi mõjutasjahtuv majanduskeskkond ja tormid (meenutab natuke eilset HAL hoiatust). "The U.S. economy grew at a lower rate than we expected in the third quarter, and we saw continued adjustments in the automotive and housing markets. I believe, however, this represents a healthy transition for the economy as it phases into a more sustainable growth rate".  Tasub jälgida ka UPS.

    Eelmisel kuul langes USA ehitustööliste hõive kõige rohkem alates 1991. aastast ning huvitavad arengud on toimumas ka laenuandjatega ning kinnisvaramaakleritega. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday it is cutting 320 subprime mortgage jobs in two operations centers because it is tightening its lending standards to home buyers with poor credit histories.

  • Shark ütleb, et mitte Föderaalreservi sõnavõtt pole oluline, vaid see, kuidas seda turuosalised tõlgendama hakkavad. Ilmselt võib oodata Fedi päevadele sarnaselt üpris lahjat kauplemist kuni kella 20.15ni ning seejärel aktiivset ja volatiilset kauplemist.

    Watch the Emotions, not the Fed

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/21/2007 8:43 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Beauty in things exists in the mind which contemplates them."

    -- David Hume

    The FOMC interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EDT this afternoon will have a major impact on the course of the stock market. Determining the impact on the market is mostly an exercise in psychology; it is much more important to understand the thinking and feelings of market players than it is an attempt to exactly predict what the Fed might do.

    No one is expecting the Fed to actually adjust interest rates today. The focus is on the accompanying policy statement and whether the language will be less concerned about the problem of inflation and more concerned about economic growth and problems such as subprime mortgage lending. Market bulls are hoping for at least a subtle hint that an interest rate cut may be forthcoming in the next few months.

    The less optimistic folks will tell us that there simply is not enough evidence yet that inflation has cooled enough for the Fed to back off from its hawkish stance. The core inflation rate is still running higher than they would like and even though there is some economic slowdown and issues in housing, inflation remains the Fed's primary focus.

    The big question for us this morning is figuring out how the market will react. What makes things particularly tricky is that we have had a low-volume bounce over the last five days in front of the news. If folks are buying then they are obviously expecting something positive and that means there will be some pressure to lock in gains as the news hits.

    What complicates things is that the bounce the last few days, while producing good-sized point gains, has not come with the volume and vigor that reflects a high level of confidence that the market is ready to go higher. The action has felt like it was more a product of trapped bears and underinvested bulls who were forced to add long exposure as the market failed to pull back. A sudden increase in negativity has put a floor under the market and the generally positive recent news flow is helping to produce a squeeze higher.

    Are market players still sufficiently negative and poorly positioned that they will be squeezed once again on the Fed news? That is a possibility but what is more important is the degree to which they are expecting something friendly from the Fed. The high level of underlying negativity vs. positive expectations about the Fed creates a very interesting tug of war and one whose outcome I am not going to try to predict.

    I plan on waiting to see what the news is before I make any big moves. Conditions seem ripe for a further squeeze higher but the Fed could quickly change the mood if it doesn't toss us some slight dovishness.

    We have a flat start setting up. Overseas markets were mixed and oil and gold are trading up.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ICFI +19%, TSTC +19%, ORCL +4.6%, ADBE +3.7%, CHAP +1.6%... Mortgage Lenders up on FMT's deal to sell $4 bln in sub-prime loans: FMT +16%, NFI +6.2%, LEND +4% (also Citadel Investment reports 4.5% stake in LEND)... Other News: SNDK +6.1% (signs license deal with Hynix, also will set up joint venture), AVRX +11% (extends yesterday's 15% move, co reports tonight), VYYO +6.5% (initiated at Janco with $15 tgt), HMY +6%, ASTI +6% (extends recent momentum, +56% in a week), CYTR +4.9% (receives $10 mln from exercise of warrants), XIDE +4.5% (extends yesterday's 11% move), FIG +4.4% (four firms initiate coverage on this recent IPO), PDE +4.3% (takeover chatter), NVDA +4.2% (Goldman upgrade), IFON +4.1% (to unveil new product), AMAG +3.9% (Deutsche initiates with $100 tgt), MAMA +3.4%, AAPL +0.8% (Apple TV is now shipping)... Under $3: CMGI +3.8% (mentioned positively in Barron's Online).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: PRTS -45% (also RBC initiates with $8 tgt), FSII -13%, CTAS -7.2% (also Merrill downgrade), DIET -6%, FDX -3.8% (down in sympathy: UPS -1.6%), AIR -2.2%... Other News: GTW -6% (denies takeover talk - Reuters), SLG -3.4% (announces notes offering, to sell Manhattan condo units to CLI), CVLT -2.8% (profit taking after recent move), ALU -2.7% (extends recent slide), TSCM -2% (Jim Cramer draws fire over manipulation comments - Reuters), AL -1.5% (Prudential downgrade), AA -1.2% (Prudential downgrade).
  • FOMC keeps Fed Funds at 5.25% as expected

    The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters. Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.

  • Ja dollar nõrgeneb...

    Dollar drops after Fed removes phrase on additional firming in post-meeting statement - Reuters
    Implied chance for June Fed easing hits 48% against 24% pre-FOMC decision statement -Reuters

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