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Börsipäev 3. aprill

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  • Futuurid kauplevad täna hommikul eilse sulgumisega võrreldes tänu madalamale naftahinnale ja Aasia turgude tugevusele tunduvalt kõrgematel tasemetel.

    Wachovia initiates NYMEX (NMX 132.97) with an Outperform, as they believe the co is well positioned in expanding energy markets with long-term positive industry trends in place and with the connection of its trading floor to CME's Globex, they expect the electronification of its markets will create above-consensus earnings power.

    Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Shutterfly (SFLY 16.00) with a Buy and sets a $21 tgt, as they expect the co to benefit from transformations now underway in the photo-services and personal publishing markets that are fueled by the proliferation of digital cameras and the continued adoption of broadband connections worldwide

    Thomas Weisel initiates National CineMedia (NCMI 25.70) with an Overweight and sets a $33 tgt, as they believe NCM could be among the fastest-growing, ad-supported media companies in the U.S. given its ownership in NCM LLC, which has quickly established a leadership position in the fast-growing cinema advertising market

    Stifel initiates Marvel Enterprises (MVL 27.78) with a Buy and sets a $34 tgt, as they see an attractive longer-term growth opportunity with the impending launch of the co's film slate, an initiative that serves as a catalyst for the business and offers significant earnings and cash flow upside potential while its toy operations should benefit from a new master license agreement with Hasbro which will add to cash flow with $110 mln in nonrefundable guaranteed payments expected in future periods

    Goldman upgrades Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI 30.21) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT 58.60) to Buy from Neutral..

    .Credit Suisse adds UTX to their U.S Focus List saying they believe that UTX provides investors with an attractive long-term capital appreciation opportunity along with solid defensive characteristics. The firm believes there is a substantial amount of margin expansion opportunity across a majority of the businesses at UTX.

    Jefferies believes that MU will report weak results for its sensor business when the co reports earnings on April 4, and they think this weakness will be viewed as a negative indicator for the entire CMOS sensor industry, specifically OVTI. Firm would stay on the sidelines until there are indications of pricing pressure subsiding or a mix shift to higher ASP megapixel sensors. Reits Hold on OVTI.

    Suntrust believes that the garden season has gotten off to a strong start, especially in the key locations of California, Texas, and Florida. Firm expects CENT will be the primary benefactor of the California weather, as its sales are more skewed towards this region, although continued margin pressure from birdseed input costs could weigh on Q2 results. Despite difficult comps, firm looks for SMG to post strong rev in Q2 as well, but thinks the co will also be impacted by input costs. Finally, firm believes that SPC's lawn & garden business has had a strong start to the season.

  • liialt paljud mängivad langusele, seega ostetakse turg väikeste käivetega üles ja putid jooksevad liiva!
  • Unscrambling the Market's Mixed Signals

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/3/2007 7:31 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "I dread success. To have succeeded is to have finished one's business on earth, like the male spider, who is killed by the female the moment he has succeeded in his courtship. I like a state of continual becoming, with a goal in front and not behind."

    -- George Bernard Shaw

    After a quiet but positive day yesterday, a good question to ponder this morning is, what is this market becoming? As I discussed yesterday, there are plenty of very good reasons for the market to struggle. The negatives are not only painfully obvious but already widely discussed, embraced and even acted upon by many. Is it just a matter of time before the market succumbs to these many hurdles and obstacles, or will it do what it so often does and find a way to frustrate the masses of people who have already decided on where things are headed?

    What makes things particularly difficult right now is that we have very conflicting indications. The technical patterns of all the major indices are all poor. After the very nasty decline about a month ago, we have rallied back up but are now facing some stiff overhead resistance, as you can see on the charts here. On the other hand, there is some darn good action in individual stocks. Plenty of money is still anxious to buy, and there are many things that have favorable charts and present good opportunities.

    So the question becomes, do we forgo present opportunities because of the bigger-picture concerns that are obvious in the major indices, or do we embrace the short term and worry about the health of the overall market down the road when we finally do start to see further problems and deterioration?
  • Upser. Kas mitte puttide väljakirjutajad ei ole sunnitud nende katteks aktsiaid müüma ja paljude langusele mängimise tulemus peaks olema turu suurte käivetega allmüümine. Või mõtlen ma täiesti valesti?
  • Erinevate analüüsimajade Top Pick'e oleme siin varemgi tutvustanud. Friedman Billingsi üheks tippvalikuks on Devon Energy(DVN). $100 hinnasihi täitumine tähendaks ca 40%-list aktsiahinna tõusu.

    DVN Devon Energy: Freidman Billings reiterates Outperform rating and Top Pick (70.11 )

    Friedman Billings notes DVN presented at the Howard Weil energy conf yesterday. They reiterate their Outperform rating and $100 tgt, representing a 7.5x 2007 TEV/DACF multiple. They note DVN is also on the FBR Top Picks list. Looking ahead to 2008, they see DVN's multiple dropping to 5.0x and the peers falling to 5.4x. They continue to be impressed with DVN's deep inventory of projects set to start up over the next 12-18 months, giving visibility on production growth over the next three years. Given the co's size in each of its core areas, firm continues to see the stock as a potential acquisition candidate for the super-majors, should they decide to go on a buying spree.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: LAYN +9.5%, NAPS +7.2%, LWSN +5.1%... Other news: LEND +20.1% (closes Farallon financing; updates corporate developments), CEGE +16.0% (provides final median survival data from second Phase 2 trial of GVAX for prostate cancer), ESLR +9.4% (announces contract increase with SunEdison), MI +7.9% (WSJ reports that MI and Warburg are near deal on spinoff, MI also upgraded at Fox Pitt), THRX +4.4% (announces positive results of clinical program in beyond Advair collaboration).
  • Legendaarne karu Doug Kass tunnistab, et turu "toon" on suurepärane ning lisaks on mees ehitamas (ja on ehitanud) suurimat lühikest positsiooni (SPY, IWM, QQQQ) peale 2000. aasta esimest poolt.
  • Kas siin pole vastuolu? Või Kassi jaoks on langus suurepärane nagu vanale karule iseenesestmõistetav?
  • Kass viitas turutoonile lühiajaliselt, aga shorti on ta kasvatanud päris pikka aega ning nägemus on samuti pikaajalisem/fundamentaalne.
  • Craig-Hallum Capital kommenteerib täna päris huvitavalt maksesüsteemidega/tarkvaraga seotud ettevõtteid. Viimaste ülevõttude valguses ei ole analüütikutel enam aasta pärast ühtegi ettevõtet katta ning $25-miljardiline hinnasilt ei peletanud First Data (FDC) ostjaid eemale (firma, mis analüüsimaja arvates ei lähe kunagi müügiks). Irooniliselt küsivad nad, mida peab üks payment-ettevõte tegema, et jääda "iseseisvaks."

    Minu arust päris naljakas kommentaar (Craig-Hallum): If you know a sell-side analyst making a living covering publicly traded payment related businesses, you may notice some tension as they envision a career change. At this rate, there won't be anyone to cover in another year or so.

    Viimaste kuude jooksul on toimunud väga palju ülevõtmiseid sektoris. Carreker ja Corillian (CORI) osteti CheckFree (CKFR) poolt. Digital Insight kositi Intuit (INTU) poolt. Näiteid on veelgi tuua..

    Firma poolt kaetavate ettevõtete arv sektoris on suhteliselt kokku kuivanud (4 ettevõtet) ning huvitav on asjaolu, et analüüsimaja arvates on potentsiaalselt kõige suurema tähelepanu all järgmise ülevõtukandidaadina LHV Pro valik Fundtech (FNDT). Väike turuväärtus, SEPA ja nõudlus toodete järele teeksid ülevõtu suhteliselt loogiliseks.

    Siin väike seletus SEPA kohta ja Fundtech (FNDT) on üks peamiseid kasulõikajaid.


  • Oliver, kas hea ajastus või tulid kõik LHV kliendid ostma? :)
  • Jim, kuhugi peab ju DNDN raha voolama! :)
  • Ja mitte ainult. Seda jätkub ka PFWD jaoks :)
  • Koomiline. See paistis eile kogu turgu lausa üleval hoidvat .

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