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Börsipäev 29. veebruar

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  • Samasuguse pealkirjaga börsipäeva on võimalik alustada alles 2012. aasta veebruari viimasel päeval kolmapäeval. Mida siis toob liigaasta lisapäev meile?

    Delli tulemused jäid eile ootustele alla ja kindlasti tuleks jälgida aktsia liikumist. Negatiivsust lisas ka AIG, kes jätkas agressiivselt varade mahakandmist ja oli ka oma prognoosides konservatiivne. Langus küll õnneks väga suureks ei paisunud, kuna usutakse, et reaalsed kahjud, mida AIG aja jooksul peab kandma, on väiksemad, kui täna välja kuulutatud, siis siiski üle dollari pudeneti ka järelturul.

    AIG: "During 2008, we expect the U.S. housing market to remain weak and credit market uncertainty will likely persist. Continuing market deterioration would cause AIG to report additional unrealized market valuation losses and impairment charges..."

    Lisaks vimaste päevade Bernanke kommentaaride järel - mis rõhutavad USA majanduse nõrkust - on turul liikumas jutud, et tööjõuraport 7. märtsil (järgmise nädala reede) saab olema nõrgem kui oodatud (tänane konsensus on +40 000 töökohta veebruaris).
  • Siinsed mahedad talved on jõudnud ka Bloombergi - üks artikkel lumetust Helsinkist.

  • Kuigi pearõhk peaks tänasel aktsiaturul siiski olema eilsel Bernanke nirul majandussõnumil, Delli ja AIG nukratel numbritel ning Kohl's Corpi (KSS) kasumiprognooside langetamisel, siis oma mõju avaldavad ka tänased majandusraportid kell 15.30 Eesti aja järgi, mil teatatakse jaanuarikuiste isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste muutused (ootused vastavalt +0.2% ja +0.2%) ning tuumik PCE inflatsiooni näit (ootus +0.3%), mida Fed armastab kasutada.
  • AMBAC Fincl: CNBC commetator says that the Ambac bailout hit a serious snag; says rating agencies demanded more capital from possible bailout banks (11.80 )
  • Üks optimistlik kommentaar Apple'i kohta Realmoney all Jason Razniku poolt:

    Apple should do well in '08, but I think there may be another drop before we get a real run in AAPL. I believe there will be some negative news regarding iPod sales growth. I think cannibalization between Apple products (iPhone) is likely to account for a decent drop in iPod sales. Someone who would have bought a $299 iPod is more likely to just purchase an iPhone. Apple still profits from that, but obviously other media player sales are likely to suffer.

    I do think iPhone sales will continue to be strong. Just this past week, Apple received great exposure when Jon Stewart used an iPhone during the Oscars. Also, with the writers strike over, I'd expect the iPhone to be the trendy pick in upcoming primetime shows, as seen in several shows this week. People like to own what they see celebrities using on tv.

    I sold goog early last month because on a site I run, ad revenue resulting from goog dropped significantly, while traffic increased. This likely occurred because users could no longer click anywhere on an ad, rather only the actual url. Also, there was a slight seasonal advertising slowdown. Therefore, I was afraid that GOOG would announce ad click-thru rates slowed.

    The change outlined above will definitely bring higher quality traffic to advertisers. Good long-term move!
    I bought back google on Tuesday and will likely hold onto this one for awhile. Also, advertising looks like it's picking up again.

  • January Personal Spending +0.4% vs +0.2% consensus, prior month revised to +0.3% from +0.2%
    January Personal Income +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus
    January PCE Core y/y +2.2% vs +2.2% consensus (Fedi soovitud vahemik sellel näidul on muideks 1% kuni 2%).
  • Vahelduseks pistaks siia taas ühe nisu graafiku, mille hinna kõikumine mõlemale poole on viimasel ajal õige suureks paisunud:

  • Muideks UBS prognoosis täna, et finantsettevõtted kannavad tõenäoliselt varade mahakirjutamisega kahju vähemalt $600 miljardit. Tänaseks on maha kirjutatud $160 miljardit. Ehk kui $600 miljardiline prognoos täitub, siis on veel pikk maa minna.
  • Saksamaa DAX -1.57%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.94%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.72%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.65%

    Venemaa MICEX -1.26%

    Poola WIG -1.95%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.32%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.06%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.15%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.09%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.51%

    Tai Set +0.52%

    India Sensex -1.38%

  • Cycles Take Time
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/29/2008 8:12 AM EST

    Rapidity does not always mean progress, and hurry is akin to waste.
    -- Charles A. Stoddard

    One of the important things to remember about bear markets is that they take time to play out. Not only do prices fall sharply, but it takes a while for the cycle to play out.

    Unfortunately, the inclination of most investors is to look for a quick resolution to a difficult situation. We want to identify the problem, fix it and then move on. We don't want to wait for the solutions we employ to actually work, and we want to assume that we have fully anticipated all that could possibly go wrong.

    Over the past few weeks, we have seen some good example of this hurry to declare that the worst is over. There is much commentary about how a recession is likely to be avoided and how the market has already discounted the worst. I don't believe that to be the case, but even if it is, the market will still need time to deal with the macroeconomic changes that are taking place. It simply isn't reasonable to expect that we'll shrug off the issues we have been wrestling with lately and rush higher.

    When the market is downtrending like it has been for several months now, there is great anxiety to be fully long at the exact moment the market bottoms. That inclination to try to buy the exact low along with the tendency to keep on hoping that the worst is over is what constantly drives investors to be long prematurely.

    What makes it even more difficult is that during bear markets there are going to be some rallies. When we are already predisposed to catching the absolute low and hoping the worst is over, it is almost impossible to avoid being sucked into strength, even if there are few signs it will be sustained.

    The way the market has been holding up fairly well lately as a barrage of bad news hits is making things even more difficult. The logical conclusion is that if we aren't going down more than this on news that is downright terrible, then maybe we have already discounted the worst.

    Maybe, but in the current environment, what we may be seeing is the triumph of hope over reality. Market players become tired of the negativity and want it to be over, so they will occasional make a stand during downtrends and disregard the fundamentals for a while. Eventually, the weight of the issues takes hold again and we roll over, with the premature optimists adding to the selling pressure.

    Be patient. Let this bear market play out. The issues will be resolved in the fullness of time, and we will eventually have a better market again. In the meanwhile, we will hear much chatter about how the bottom is at hand and that we have a great opportunity to buy, so we'd better hurry. It can be very hard to resist that push to jump in with both feet, but don't forget that good markets will last for many months and there will be plenty of time to get on board when the bear-market cycle has played out.

    We have a weak open on the way as the market ponders the downbeat comments from Ben Bernanke yesterday, poor earnings from Dell (DELL) , record weakness in the dollar and record high oil and commodity prices.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MRVC +23.6%, SDIX +12.8%, IPG +12.7%, SAPE +12.2%, JOEZ +12.2%, UTSI +9.6%, OVTI +9.4%, INAP +8.1%, ESL +8.0%, CLUB +7.8%, FCN +6.0% (also announces the acquisition of TSC Brasil; terms not disclosed), GPS +5.4% (also announces $1 billion share repurchase program), CSCX +5.3%, INT +4.7%, NOVL +4.7%, URI +4.1%, SGMS +4.1%, BXG +4.0%, NXG +3.1%, WR +3.0%, JRJC +2.9%, HEI +2.7%, EXAC +2.6%, CTV +2.5%, ESEA +1.7% (also upgraded to Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald), SWN +1.3% (also declares two-for-one stock split)... Other news: COMS +21.0% (Bain Capital and China's Huawei plan to resubmit an application seeking U.S. approval for their planned $2.2 bln buyout of 3Com - WSJ), JAZZ +15.4% (FDA approves once-daily Luvox extended release), AGO +11.9% (announces commitment by Wilbur Ross to purchase up to $1 bln of common equity), TTWO +4.2% (approached by other cos since EA offer - WSJ), RHT +4.1% (still checking), QDEL +4.1% (says the FDA grants CLIA waiver for its QuickVue RSV test), KRY +3.7% (provides shareholders a recap of achievements and progress for the Las Cristinas gold project in Venezuela), IVN +2.7% (still checking), TTWO +2.7% (still checking), GXDX +2.2% (prices a 2.08 mln share common stock offering at $25.50/share).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SONS -10.4%, DECK -10.2%, CDL -9.6%, PARD -8.8%, HANS -8.3%, AMCS -8.0%, TIE -7.9%, DTSI -7.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Kaufman), HLX -7.0%, DF -6.4% (also files mixed securities shelf offering and removed from Focus List at JPMorgan), CEGE -5.8%, MENT -5.2%, BGFV -5.1% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), AIG -4.9% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), HRS -4.8%, FCH -4.6%, HMSY -3.7%, EAS -3.1%, CPHD -2.9%, UNS -2.9% (also downgraded to Hold at Soleil), LYV -2.5%, LIZ -2.1% (also delays annual report filing). Analyst downgrades: MF -9.2% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman and downgraded to Neutral at UBS and downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), RHD -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank and downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), LYV -2.5% (downgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph), VRX -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill).
  • Lisaks BWS Financialile kaitseb Sigmat (SIGM) täna ka UBS:

    Sigma Designs UBS says no change to fundamentals; lists beliefs why SIGM under pressure (29.98 ) -Update- UBS believes SIGM has been under pressure of late due to: 1) recent insider selling by mgmt; 2) comments by mgmt about lumpiness of business at a competitor conf; 3) feedback from clients comparing the business model to SIRF; and 4) slight dilution from VXP acquisition, although neutral for full year. 

    Allamüügi põhjustega oleme tuttavad, kuid enamus tundub pastakast imetud. Insiderite müügiplaanid olid paigas juba varem, business lumpiness tähendab meie jaoks kas suurt või väga suurt kasumit (seda ei tasu nüüd liiga tõsiselt võtta) ehk kiire kasvu tingimustes on prognoose raske teha. Sirfiga võrdlus võib olla asjakohane, samas asub IPTV oma elutsüklis natuke tagapool ehk baas on piisavalt madal, et kiiresti kasvada, lisaks on peale USA olemas veel oluliselt suurem maailm.

  • Mõned minutid tagasi käis CNBC'lt läbi jutt, et Moody's jätkab ABK reitingu ülevaatamist ja võib seda järgmisel nädalal alandada. Jutte võimalikust reitingu liigutamisest on varemgi olnud ning ausalt öeldes see mind enam sugugi ei üllata.

    AMBAC Fincl: CNBC commentator discusses Moody's review of ABK, says that ABK remains on review for possible downgrade, which could happen next week

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