Börsipäev 11. detsember - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 11. detsember

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  • Mastercardi andmetel langes USA jaemüük (va. autod) novembris 5.5% yoy ning 3% mom. Üsna koledad numbrid, kuid oma osa oli hilistel Tänupühadel ning kütusehinna järsul langusel.
  • Venemaa valuutareservid vähenesid eelmise nädala jooksul $454.9 miljardi pealt $437 miljardini. Ühtlasi lasti rublal taas dollari-euro korvi vastu nõrgeneda 30 kopika võrra.
  • Merrill Lynch on langetamas Ericssoni (ERIC) soovitust "underperformi" peale, varasemalt soovitati aktsiat osta.

    Ühtlasi on Ericsson ka Morgan Stanley taktikaline idee:

    We believe the share price will fall relative to the industry over the next 45 days.This is because the stock has traded up recently, making short term valuation much less compelling.We estimate that there is about a 60% to 70% or "likely" probability for the scenario.

    Eile langetas ka Citi soovituse varasema "osta" pealt "hoiale", aga aktsia tõusis koos muu tehnoloogiaga. Täna on tõenäosus languseks oluliselt parem.

  • Opco on täna langetamas Garmin'i (GRMN) kasumiprognoose, kuid samas on pikemas perspektiivis positiivsemaks muutumas. 2009. aasta tuleb kahtlemata navigatsiooniseadmete tootjatele raske. Teisalt, turg on palju negatiivsust sisse hinnanud ja Garmin on tööstusharu üks liidritest, mis lubab raskel ajal turuosa suurendada.

    Oppenheimer believes the PND industry is continuing to see a material slowdown in growth and that macro pressures across Garmin's product categories could make 2009 revenue and EPS fall well below current consensus estimates. And that may all be for the best. For no one in Garmin's universe seems better positioned to weather the current macro storm and exploit the downturn to its long-term advantage. Painful as '09 will be, it may offer Garmin a wealth of opportunities in terms of share gains and acquisitions. They are lowering their 2009 estimates to 2.56 from 2.97 (vs $3.27 consensus) on GRMN, but are turning slightly more positive on the stock.
  • Baidu (BIDU) issues downside guidance, sees Q4 revs of $131-$133 mln vs $140.31 mln First Call consensus, and vs prior guidance of $151-$155 mln.

    Ja aktsia eelturul juba alla $100.

  • Arvaks, et BCE short 18ga omab pointi.

    BCE BCE leveraged buyout deal collapses - WSJ (18.29 )

    The Wall Street Journal reports the $41 bln leveraged buyout of BCE (BCE) collapsed Wednesday when a valuation expert at auditing firm KPMG LLC issued a final opinion that the transaction would create an insolvent entity. The takeover had been teetering since last month, when KPMG delivered a preliminary opinion that it couldn't provide a certificate of solvency. That assurance was an express condition needed to complete the deal. As the merger agreement expired Thursday at 12:01 a.m., buying group Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Providence Equity Partners LLC, Madison Dearborn Partners LLC and Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity issued a joint announcement that the deal was terminated, citing the failure to fulfill the contract's terms. The four private-equity firms said they aren't responsible for a $1.2 billion breakup fee. BCE is expected to take issue with that view and sue the private-equity group over the breakup fee.
  • Tundub, et seda BCE uudist juba oodati. Vaata 26. Nov liikumist, siis oli rumour.
  • Märksa kehvem aga samas huvitav tunduks natukesega riskida ja BIDUt shortida 112 ranges. 131M vs 151M eelmine guidance vs cons 140M ...oodatud, aga siiski halb
  • iddeoflo, nõustun et faili oodati suures ulatuses, siiski kalduks arvama, et mingid õhkõrnad lootused olid ja asja kinnitusele leidub müüjaid.
  • October Trade Balance -$57.2 bln vs -$53.5 bln consensus, prior revised to -$56.6 bln from -$56.5 bln
  • An End to the Bear? Don't Be Hasty
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/11/2008 8:27 AM EST

    In business, words are words, explanations are explanations, promises are promises, but only performance is reality.
    -- Harold S. Geneen

    As 2008 winds down, we are finally seeing stocks perform a little bit better. One of the most difficult things about this market over the past six months or so is that there has been absolutely no leadership. There has not been a group, sector or theme that has bucked the downtrend. Momentum traders have had nowhere to go but the short side.

    Early in the year we had some very strong action in commodity and oil-related stocks. However, after oil topped out in July, those stocks collapsed; many were cut 75% or more in the last few months. The primary reason for the decline was dramatic slowing in the worldwide economy, particularly China and India, which had been the main growth engines in the past. In addition, a stronger dollar helped to keep oil relatively weaker.

    Over the last four days, we have seen oil and precious-metals stocks bounce quite a bit. They are gapping up again this morning as the dollar is weak against the euro due to anticipation that the Fed will cut another 50 basis points to 0.5% and comments by the ECB that they "don't have much room to maneuver" after their recent cuts.

    It has been so long since the hot-money momentum traders have had a group they can pursue aggressively that they are showing some excitement over oil, commodities and precious metals this morning. As I mentioned yesterday, I like the metals and I'm taking some partial profits into strength.

    Outside of the commodity-related groups, the action is much more mixed. Financials struggled yesterday, but we had some bounce in semiconductors and homebuilders, and the big picture holds some promise. After the "buy the bad news" rally last week on the horrible monthly jobs data, we have been holding onto gains and building a good base, which is supportive of a further upside move.

    We also have positive seasonality into the end of the year to help us. A lot of money managers would love to tack on some gains in the next couple weeks to help mitigate what is going to be a very ugly year for most. We also have retirement fund contributions at the end of the year and the start of the next to help out a bit.

    In summary, we have a decent upside technical setup, some momentum in the formerly hot groups that traders loved early in the year, some positive seasonality and some motivation to produce some gains before the year concludes. Given those things, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt, but let's make sure we don't get carried away and start talking about an end to the bear market. We have a long road to travel and plenty of work to do before that happens. The market will have to prove to us by performance that it can be trusted, and so far it has just given us a little bit of a bounce. That is certainly better than the relentless downtrend, but it doesn't deserve a lot of trust.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HWD +16.3%, LLY +5.7%, ISYS +3.1%, BIDU +2.4%... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: BTU +3.8%, TOT +3.3%, BP +2.9%, COP +2.3%, NOV +2.2%, PBR +1.7%, RDS.A +1.4%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: SLW +7.2%, GG +5.7%, HL +5.6%, GOLD +5.5%, AUY +4.8%, ABX +3.9%, GLD +2.7%, AEM +2.5%, NEM +2.0%... Other news: CPE +11.8% (continued strength following past 2 days 100%+surge), NR +7.3% (announces that it has signed the Lot B contract with Petrobras; contract valued at ~$144 mln), MTU +5.6% (climbed in overseas trading), WIN +2.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AIG +2.9% (CEO says asset sales may be delayed - Reuters), XL +2.6% (issues statement in response to market rumors), BCS +2.4% (still checking), MAS +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DB +1.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: HSTX +3.9% (resumed with a Buy at Morgan Joseph).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIL -36.4%, URBN -21.1%, EMKR -11.3%, SWK -10.4% (light volume), LULU -8.2%, CMI -7.5%, CIEN -7.4%, PKY -5.9% (also filed for a $300 mln mixed shelf offering), IRET -2.2%... Select solar names showing weakness: JASO -10.2%(continued weakness following lowered guidance near close yesterday), YGE -6.4%, STP -3.5%, LDK -3.3%, FSLR -1.7%... Select drybulk shippers pulling back despite Baltic Dry Index gaining for fourth straight session: EGLE -9.0%, EXM -7.8%, DRYS -7.2%, DSX -4.4% (announces time charter contract for m/v Dione worth $6.2 mln), GNK -4.0%, TBSI -3.4%... Other news: HL -9.9% (announces it has entered into definite agreement to sell securities to institutional investors for gross proceeds of $21 mln), AEG -8.4% (still checking for anything specific), USB -6.0% (says provision in 4Q to be '90-110%' of net charge-offs - DJ), CBT -4.0% (expects weak demand for first quarter 2009; announces actions to address market challenges), IBKC -3.7% (announces the pricing of a 2.5 mln share common stock follow on offering at $40/share), BA -3.1% (schedules 787 Dreamliner first flight for second quarter 2009; first delivery for first quarter 2010; also downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), BCE -1.6% (confirms privatization transaction will not proceed).
  • Saksamaa DAX -1.5%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.1%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.4%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.0%

    Venemaa MICEX +1.9%

    Poola WIG -1.0%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.7%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.2%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine)  -2.3%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine)  -1.9%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.3%

    Tai Set 50 +0.4%

    India Sensex 30 -0.1%

  • jupp nööri vist oleks hea? BCE ja BIDU
  • paistab, et dollari ja naftarongid liiguvad nii kindlalt, et enam tagasi ei vaadata
  • davai, aitab sellest pullist juba - push poz to zero - hakkame tööle
  • mul on üks hea meetod, mis vahest aitab
    kui tahad, et aktsiad üles lähevad, siis puhud graafikule alt üles
    kui tahad, et alla tuleksid, lased toa paksult kõhutuult täis
  • ECB's Weber says that the ECB will not have a lot of new, relevant data in Jan that would lead to a reevaluation of monetary policy leeway; should avoid cutting rates below level where real rates would be negative -Reuters
  • kui me kõik korraga ühte ja sama asja teeksime, siis suudame tervet turgu liigutada
  • So your girlfriend rolls a Honda, playin' workout tapes by Fonda
    But Fonda ain't got a motor in the back of her Honda

    WN saab nädala muusikavaliku auhinna, superlugu.
  • sa arvad, et ma ainult purjus peaga oskan koerustükke teha? :)
  • Madis, kas sina aitasid meie ühisele üritusele kaasa?
    kumma poole valisid ?
  • kas täna-homme jälle mingi naftafutuuride lõpp pole?
  • tundub et siit saab alguse midagi suuuurt
  • tänan kõiki kes osalesid
    tuulutage nüüd toad ära, homme surume edasi

    ja neile kes puhuda üritasid - kahjuks pean teid kurvastama, tulevad mustad jõulud
  • minu karma juures tuleb loomulikult homme mega põrge....
    ei ole vaja seda hullu juttu tõsiselt võtta

  • Tubli töö, speedy conzales. Raskel ajal on ikka tihedamalt ühistegevuse lipu alla koondutud.

    Vt ka HaraldHaak rada7-s: ennast rahuldades mõtle Lainele

    kerige jutulõime veidi allapoole, 4.detsembri 10:29 postitus.

    "Pole eriline saladus, et seksuaalmaagia on üks lihtsamini praktiseeritavaid ja samas suhteliselt tõhusaid meetodeid reaalsuse painutamiseks oma suva järele, eriti kui seda teha koordineeritult ja massiliselt."
    "Järgmine kord ennast rahuldades mõelgem Laine Jänesele! "Energiate koondumise hetkel" suunakem oma heasoovlikkuse ja armastuse vaimne vektor Laine poole..."

    Võiks ka aktsiaturgude soovitud suunas nihutamiseks kõlvata.

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