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Börsipäev 3. märts

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  • Täna makroandmeid väga palju tulemas ei ole. Tähtsam vaid Pending Home Sales, millelt oodatakse jaanuarikuu kohta -3.5%list näitu. Kaks tundi enne turgude sulgemist (14.00ET) tuleb ka info USA veebruarikuu automüügi kohta - seni on sealt vaid negatiivset infot tulnud.

    Lisaks võtavad kell 10.30 ET algavast Morgan Stanley Technoloogia Konverentsist osa DELL, JNPR, MSFT, TXN, GOOG ja YHOO ning sealt tulevad sõnavõtud/väljaütlemised võivad neid aktsiahindu mõjutada.

    USA aktsiaturgude futuurid on eilse veresauna ja S&P500 alla 700 punkti ärakäimise pisut rahunenud. Hetkel S&P500 +1.1% @ 713 punkti.

  • Eurozone ready to rescue members if crisis hits
    By Tony Barber in Brussels
    Published: March 3 2009 10:05 | Last updated: March 3 2009 10:05

    Eurozone authorities would help a member-state in serious economic difficulties before it needed to turn to the International Monetary Fund because of a risk of debt default, a senior EU policymaker said on Tuesday.
    “If crisis emerges in one eurozone country, there is a solution before visiting the IMF,” Joaquín Almunia, the EU’s monetary affairs commissioner, said. “It’s not clever to tell you in public the solution. But the solution exists.”

  • Üks intervjuu siia, kus räägitakse võlakirjade tulususe kiirest võimalikust tõusust 2009. aasta teises pooles. Arvestades seda, kui palju raha on täna võlakirjadesse liikunud ning mis juhtub siis, kui võlakirjadest raha välja voolama hakkab, võib võlakirjade n-ö uksest välja trügimine yieldid väga kiiresti ülespoole tagasi viia. Üheks võimaluseks selle teema peale panustamiseks oleks osta TBT'd.

  • USA turud on ka eelturul olnud võrdlemisi volatiilsed, kuid lõpp-kokkuvõttes ollakse siiski avanemas ca 1%lises plusspooles. Nafta on eilse veresauna järel tagasi põrganud ning kaupleb +4.3% @ 41.85 barrelist.

    Saksamaa DAX +0.53%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.61%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.37%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.53%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.76%

    Poola WIG +1.25%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.69%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.30%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.05%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.24%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.56%

    Tai Set 50 -1.00%

    India Sensex 30 -2.09%

  • Banks Are the Key
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/3/2009 7:09 AM EST

    I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.
    -- Thomas Jefferson

    It is all about the banks. What the market needs more than anything is some clarity about the bank crisis. We have been in a vicious downturn every since Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner gave a speech on Feb. 10 with some vague outlines about what might be done to help banks. The market has not been able to find its footing since.

    To complicate matters further, we have seen a huge stimulus package and a giant federal budget. There is much political debate over whether this is just social policy disguised as an economic remedy. While this whole discussion may be draining investors of optimism, it is still the banking problem that is at the core of the pressure on the market. The spending bills will very likely have at least some short-term positive impact on the economy, but if we don't have a good plan for banks in place, the market is going to stay a mess.

    So we continue to descend into the abyss while we wait for something, anything, about how the bank problem will be handled. We are becoming quite oversold technically, so it won't take much at all to spark a bounce. In fact, just about any bank news will likely give us a good-sized move even if the critics are quick to rip in to it ... as they must assuredly will.

    The biggest positive we have going right now continues to be the intensity of the negativity. The selling yesterday was big and across the board. Virtually nothing was spared. Folks simply wanted out of this market and were willing to sell at prices last seen in 1997 in order to escape.

    Contrarian types such as Doug Kass will tell you that this extremely sour mood is an indication that a bottom is near. I agree that some sort of relief bounce is probably due to occur very soon, but I would forgo any sort of prediction about the lifespan of this bear market. We have to be extremely careful not to let standard bear-market bounces make us less zealous in protecting our capital. It is going to take quite a while for a healthy market to develop once again and while an intensely negative environment may eventually produce a strong countertrend bounce, there is no reason to think that it is anything special.

    We have a little bounce brewing in the premarket, but the news flow is fairly quiet. Bank news, when we finally see it, will be the key.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SWSI +24.1% (light volume), EGLE +13.0%, SUNH +9.7%, BRKR +8.4%, PDLI +7.3% (light volume), MWE +6.6%, AZO +6.4%, XLNX +4.7% (light volume), MTZ +1.4%, IDCC +1.0%... Select financials rebounding: C +10.8% (Citi looking at joint ventures - NY Post), PFG +4.8%, STI +4.8%, WFC +3.0%, BAC +2.8%, HIG +2.7%, UBS +2.5%, MS +2.5%, JPM +1.8%, BK +1.7%, GS +1.6%... Select drybulk shipping names trading modestly higher: EXM +5.5%, GNK +5.2%, DRYS +3.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: ACH +7.2%, MT +4.9%, AAUK +3.7%, AU +2.9%, X +2.8%, FCX +2.7%, GFI +2.5%, BBL +1.7%... Other news: AMD +7.0% (Bruce Claflin appointed AMD Chairman of the Board), AA +5.3% (still checking for anything specific), FSLR +4.2% (agrees to acquire multi gigawatt utility scale photovoltaic pipeline; also upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James), ORLY +4.1% (up in sympathy with AZO), GM +4.0% (General Motors set to buy Delphi steering unit - WSJ), CMP +3.1% (continued strength from yesterday afternoon's ~7 point surge higher; Oppenheimer discusses buyout speculation; sees businesses as complementary), NOK +3.1% (still checking), EIX +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney; also Jefferies reviews Q4 results and sees shares as undervalued)... Analyst comments: NE +5.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), QGEN +5.1% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), ESI +2.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping downIn reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CCIX -17.1%, HTE -11.7%, AMPH -6.3%, IDCC -6.1%, MDR -4.6%, SYKE -3.8%, WAG -1.3%... M&A news: ICTG -23.9% (announces that it has determined that it would not be in the best interest of the co to pursue the transaction proposed by Aegis on March 2, 2009)... Select European financials under continued pressure: ING -3.6%, LYG -3.2% BCS -1.4%... Other news: GENZ -6.7% (receives complete response letter from FDA on Lumizyme application; also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), ACM -6.0% (files for a mixed shelf offering for an indeterminate amount), IGT -4.7% (reduces quarterly dividend to $0.06/share from $0.145/share), GOLD -1.7%... Analyst comments: DHI -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), CECO -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
  • Nokia (NOK) aktsia lõpetas eilse paanikamüügi järel päeva vaid $8.74 peal. Arvestades aktsia hinnastatust ning seda, et telefoniostu edasilükkamise tsüklile järgneb väljavahetamise tsükkel, on tõenäoline, et 2010 tuleb tööstusharule tervikuna oluliselt parem tänavusest aastast. WSJ on seda täna ka oma looga kinnitamas.

    Handset sales to pick up in 2010 - WSJ. WSJ reports global handset sales declined in the fourth quarter and demand isn't expected to stabilize before next year, Gartner said. Gartner said about 315 million mobile phones were sold in the fourth quarter, down 5% from a year earlier, as manufacturers continued to struggle against weak consumer confidence in both emerging and mature markets. In the quarter ended Dec. 31, both emerging and developed markets saw growth of 2% from the previous three months -- the lowest quarter-to-quarter growth ever recorded for a fourth quarter, said Gartner's mobile device research director, Carolina Milanesi. "Efforts to reduce inventory will intensify in the first quarter of 2009 and continue into the second quarter of 2009," she added. "At the moment we are seeing growth in 2010," Ms. Milanesi said. "It will be very moderate, but growth." Ms. Milanesi said the focus in the handset market is shifting from hardware to software services and applications. "I think it's going to be the vendors which are following that trend best that will benefit from the growth," she said.  

  • Kulla hinna eilse kukkumise kohta arvati Bloombergis nii :

    Investors were selling gold to meet margin calls
  • Huvitav, milliseid uudiseid rev. Shark eeldab :o Pankade täielik natsionaliseerimine ?
    - Bank news, when we finally see it, will be the key
  • enne pööret oleks vaja ikka verd ka näha, eilne päev jättis kõik veel vapraks
  • crom... aga kuidas kõlaks välisinvestorid, ülevõtud jms?
  • Olen võlgu veel pending home sales numbri - bad...just as has been the case in the last several months.

    January Pending Home Sales m/m -7.7% vs -3.5% consensus, prior revised to +4.8% from +6.3%
  • speedy - ega sul veel vastlateaegset hernesuppi alles pole? Siin tuleks natuke jälle tuult lasta et 700 kätte saaks ;)
  • ei no siis pole kahtlust et tunni pärast oleme sub700 :D
  • eilne sai juba ära tuulutatud, täna läheb juba inertsist
  • millal õlled ära teeme? see reede mulle sobiks
  • näis lähipäevadel, kardan et pean see nädalavahetus perekondlikule üritusele sõitma
  • finants, retail ja reit on tänased underperformerid
    reit on kahest esimesest oluliselt sõltuv praegu
  • Well done, sauerkraut, kulus 33 minutit :)

  • Raske uskuda, et te mõnda muud õllet jooks :)

  • Kusjuures Soome Karhu on päris hea õlu. Peale nädalast Soome-Norra ekstreemretke hakkas väga meeldima.
  • edit:

    muidugi Põhja-Skandinaavia toiduainete kahtlasevõitu maitset silmas pidades maitseb seal mõni Eestilik toiduaine eranditult hea.
  • S&P500 indeks 2007. aasta oktoobrikuu tippudest -55%. YTD over -22%. Ma arvan, et oleks tasapisi aeg õlut vahetama hakata : )

  • Karhu on üks parimaid õllesid maailmas, minu jaoks
    ma ostan seda alati sealt koju kaasa vähemalt 12ploki,
    ja alati pudelis
  • Joel, seda on päris lõbus vaadata, kuidas dip buyerid iga rohelise jõnksu peale krabavad " nüüd tuli põhi, nüüd tuli põhi "
    ma arvan, et tõeline põhi ei saabu enne, kui need tüübid väsivad ja alla annavad
    nii et sutsu veel ootame selle õlle vahetusega ;)
  • kui S&P 2009 E=32 ja 2010 E=40, mis on võiks olla S&P fair value ?
    kas 600-700 vahemik oleks väga vale pakkumine ?
    a miks peaks ta hetkel 700+ kauplema ? ei ole ju ka antud prognoosid tugevalt põhjastatud ning tuleviku suhtes üsna palju määramatust veel
  • neid graafikuid mida siia postitate tuleks hakata äkki pikemaks venitama?
    näeks kus järgmine toetus ka on
  • yanek,nii pikaks ei saa et järgmise toetuseni venitada.DOW max graafikul tuleb enne 97 ühtlane langus kuni 88 aastani. sp500 on viiesaja punkti peal 95 aastal. indeksite järgi mingeid toetusi loota on vist nüüd liiast.
  • kiire pilk graafikule ja mina näen küll 6700 ja 5500 peal väikseid toetusi, kui me muidugi postituse kirjutamise ajal juba esimesest läbi ei ole
  • poisid, poisid, kes teist on täna ostnud 65 000 juuni 2,5 putti GE-le?? Äkki ikka jagaks teistele ka siseinfot!
  • tõepoolest, need paistavad olevat ostetud, mitte müüdud
    graafik on ka päris kole, kas turg ootab GE default'i
  • speedy, pigem kardetakse riigi dilutionit. Finantsettevõtte ju ikkagi...
  • deja vu, jaanuaris osteti samamoodi HBC märtsi putte ja the rest is history...
  • Aga vähem sarkastiliselt - GE on väheseid ettevõtted, mille kapitaliüksus kasumit teenib. 2009. aastast loodab tegevjuht Immelt, et üksus toob 30% kogukasumist. Julgeks väga kahelda ja turg jagab tundub seda seisukohta jagavat. Immelt on olnud üks pimedamaid juhte üldse viimasel poolaastal - ime ka, et teda ei usuta enam. Dividende vähendati, eks nüüd tuleb veel reitingute kallale minemist oodata. GE on kaotanud oma kõikidele kriisidele vastu pidanud laitmatu maine, mistõttu kipub vist nii minema, et ega mingil õiglasel hinnal lähitulevikus tähtsust polegi, emotsioonide tõttu reageeritakse ka GE puhul allapoole üle.
  • ega see ka mingi hea uudis ei ole, kui riik on sekkumas on GE defaultimas
  • Ameerika kodumaiste autode müük jätkas veebruaris kaljult allasõitu.

    General Motors reports February U.S. sales of -52.9% vs. -45% Street expectation
  • Seni raporteerinutest kõige vähem myyk langenud Hyundail (-1,5%) ja ... Porschel (-11,5%)
  • pullid hakkasid juba kapist välja tulema?

  • GE teema jätkuks uudis Poolast:
    Bank BPH, 66% owned by GE Money, wants to lay off 580 employees or over 12% of its workforce in an "employment rationalization," the bank said in a market filing.

    Kui suur GE Money exposure CEE-s üldse on, huvitav?
  • Omal ajal pakuti GE-d ka Ukiole kosilaseks vist :)
  • GE tahab valitsust omale äripartneriks saada

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