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Börsipäev 15. oktoober

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  • Tund aega enne USA turgude avanemist teatakse täna septembrikuu tarbijahinnaindeks, millelt oodatakse 0.2%list kasvu - ilma toidu ja kütuseta tuumikosalt aga 0.1%list kasvu. Lisaks teatatakse esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv möödunud nädala andmete põhjal - ootuseks 520 000. Pullidele meeldiks kindlasti näha olematut inflatsiooni ehk CPId ca 0.0% ning võimalikult väikest esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arvu. Negatiivsust tooks oodatust suurem inflatsiooninäit ja/või oodatust suurem töötu abiraha taotlejate arv.
  • Kuna USA dollari langus on paljude varaklasside tootlust aidanud viimastel kuudel üles puhuda, jääb tegelik pilt märksa süngemaks ning seda ka Dow maagilise 10 000 taseme puhul. Zerohedge on oma blogis indekseerinud Dow tööstuskeskmise dollari indeksfutuuriga DXY , millest selgub, et dollari vähenenud ostujõu tõttu oleks kümne aasta tagune 10 000 piir reaalsel baasil täna ekvivalentne tegelikult 7537 punktiga.  
  • Tänase päeva tähtsaimateks tulemuste teatajaks on Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Nokia, Google ja IBM. Terviklikku tulemuste tabelit, kus seni on pea kõik tabelisse mahtunud ettevõtted EPSi ootusi ületada suutnud, näeb siit. 

  • Nokia non-IFRS tulemusi võeti esimestel minutitel üsna positiivselt vastu, kui testimas käidi 10.6 eurot. Hoolimata sellest, et müügitulu jäi ootustele 0.14 miljardi euro jagu alla, teeniti aktsia pealt kasumit 0.17 eurot (vs oodatud 0.13), müüdi 108 miljonit telefoni (vs oodatud 106.1 mln) ja näidati D&S marginaali 11.4% (vs oodatud 10.8%). Lisaks üllatati positiivselt käsiseadmete globaalse müügi prognoosi tõstmisega -10%-lt -7%-le.
    Ent miinusesse vedas aktsia NSN-i varade allahindamine 0.9 mld EUR võrra ning ettevõtte hinnang, et üksuse turuosa võib väheneda varasematest ootustest rohkem. Nokia kaupleb hetkel -6.5% languses @ 9.64 eurol
  • GS suutis ootusi ületada:

    Goldman Sachs prelim $5.25 vs $4.24 First Call consensus; revs $12.37 bln vs $11.02 bln First Call consensus

    Eile pärast JPMi tõusid ootused aga ilmselt liiga kõrgele & aktsia esialgu eelturul 2.2% miinuses $188 dollari juures.

  • Citi kahjum ka oodatust parem:

    Citigroup prelim ($0.27) vs ($0.38) First Call consensus; revs $20.4 bln vs $20.04 bln First Call consensus

    C on samuti vajunud 3.4% miinusesse ja kaupleb eelturul $4.82 dollari juures.


  • September CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.2%, prior +0.4%
    September Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.1%
    Initial Claims 514K vs 520K consensus, prior revised to 524K from 521K; Continuing Claims falls to 5.992 mln from 6.067 mln
  • EUR/USD on alla vajunud & maadleb 1.490'ga. Valuutaturul ka üks oluline Trichet'i seisukoht: Trichet says EUR not created to be global currency (reuters).

  • Tulemuste tabelisse mahtunud suurematest nimedest on EPSi ootustele alla jäänud üksnes Fastenal (FAST) ja Harley-Davidson (HOG). Sellegipoolest on kõik väga häid tulemusi juba oodanud ning üleostetud turgudel on raske ilusate numbrite peale veelgi edasi tõusta.
  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -0.53%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.24%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.56%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.34%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.19%
    Venemaa MICEX -1.18%
    Poola WIG -0.95%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.77%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.51%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.60%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.73%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.31%
    Tai Set 50 -5.52%
    India Sensex 30 -0.21%

  • Unmistakable Upward Trend
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/15/2009 8:37 AM EDT

    "Skepticism is unbelief in cause and effect."

    -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

    Goldman Sachs' (GS) earnings are out this morning and are well ahead of published expectations but apparently don't beat the whisper number. The stock is trading down a little over $5, but you can bet there will be plenty of traders looking for a chance to buy on the weakness.

    After yesterday's DJIA 10,000 celebration and the surprisingly good earnings reports from Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) many seem to be prepared for the market to just keep on steadily improving. The fact that we've already come so far from the March lows is an irrelevancy to many, and the attitude among some is that things are now improving so fast that you would be foolish to even be thinking about selling.

    That sort of sentiment is a little troubling, and we'll have to keep on eye on how frothy the bulls become, but the big advantage the bulls have is that there are still far too many folks who have never been able to embrace the positives in market. They have been fighting it for many months now, are underinvested and are convinced it is all just a matter of time before we see a nasty correction.

    As we keep going up and up, these skeptics are slowly drawn into the market, not because they are true believers and really want to buy but because they are pragmatic and are hoping to make some money while the rest of the world is acting so crazy. They don't plan to stick around. They are skeptics and are keeping their fingers on the eject button, but if the fools are going to keep on buying, they we will go along for the ride. The end result is one of the most hated bull markets I have ever seen.

    Luckily for the bulls, they have tremendous momentum going for them -- good earnings news; anxious, underinvested bulls ready to buy dips; and a lot of cheerleading. We even had a Dow 10,000 special last night, which I think was a repeat of something we saw about 10 years ago.

    We can sit here and try to be critical of this market and the bulls that love it. It isn't hard to make a case for why such strength is so irrational. The fundamental arguments about the economy are easy to make, and only extreme optimists wouldn't wonder a little bit if maybe the market has run ahead of the economy

    Nonetheless, the trend is unmistakable and is straight up. We might be cute and try to catch some quick pullback because conditions are overextended, but it is very dangerous game to play. There is just too much money out there looking for a place to go, and with the potential of good earnings for the next few weeks, it is the bulls who are in control.

    Citigroup's (C) earnings are now out, and while its numbers are ahead, the reaction is some selling. Don't forget we have the mighty Google (GOOG) and International Business Machines (IBM) reporting tonight, so there is going to be plenty of reasons for the bulls to remain optimistic.

    As you consider the action, keep in mind that while there are plenty of reasons to not like this market, there are very few good reasons to fight the strength.

    We are a little soft in the early going, but this market consistently has come back from the early pressure. With IBM and Google on the agenda tonight, I don't think that the optimism is going to disappear too fast.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DSW +10.0% (light volume), GTN +5.5%, WDFC +5.4%, APH +4.6% (light volume), AVGO +3.2%, UMPQ +1.9%... M&A news: RUBO +26.8% (Rubio's receives an unsolicited letter outlining a proposal to acquire all outstanding common stock for $8.00 per share)... Select drug related names showing strength: SHPGY +2.4%, GSK +2.3%, NVS +1.0%... Select communcations/telecom related names trading higher: RVSN +3.9%, BT +2.7%, VOD +2.0%... Other news: ACOR +55.3% (announces positive vote by FDA Advisory Committee for Fampridine-SR; also upgraded to Buy at Merriman and upgraded to Outperform at Baird), SLTM +36.2% (announces FDA 510(k) Clearance of new Fraxel restore dual laser system), CLSN +14.0% (Celsion's Global Phase III ThermoDox trial approved by SFDA in China), PLX +9.2% (announces positive top-line results from its Ph. III clinical trial for UPLYSO for treatment of Gaucher Disease), THLD +8.1% (licenses Glufosfamide to Eleison Pharmaceuticals), APSG +3.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BTI +2.5% (still checking), CBY +1.8% (still checking), BP +1.8% (still checking for anything specific), LYG +1.0% (Lloyds TSB talks with Rathbone on investment management assets - DJ)... Analyst comments: SPWRA +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MNI -10.4%, NOK -8.0%, DTLK -4.3% (light volume), , HOG -3.9%, CY -3.7%, BAX -3.5%, FCS -3.3%, SCHW -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), PPG -2.5%, SPTN -2.4%, C -2.4%, ATR -2.3%, GS -2.2%, XLNX -2.1%, CCK -2.0%... Select financial names showing weakness: AIB -5.0%, COF -4.1%, AZ -2.5%, MS -2.1%, BBV -1.7%, CS -1.6%, NMR -1.4%, JPM -1.2%, WFC -1.1%... Select metals/mining names pulling back: GSS -3.7%, NG -3.1%, CDE -2.9%, ABX -1.9%, SLV -1.7%, GG -1.7%, MT -1.2%... Select casino related names trading lower: LVS -5.2%, MPEL -4.4%, MGM -3.4%, WYNN -2.9%... Other news: GKK -7.1% (still checking), DGIT -3.1% (files for 4.5 mln share common stock offering and $25 mln preferred stock offering), VIA.B -2.3% (prices 19,382,945 VIA.B common shares offered by National Amusements at $28.25/share), CBS -2.3% (prices 26,040,909 common shares sold BY NAIRI at $12/share), BJS -2.2% (receives second request under US Antitrust Review; downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), BHI -1.9% (receives second request under US Antitrust Review; downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), LAZ -0.9% (WSJ reports CEO Bruce Wasserstein has died)... Analyst comments: HST -3.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Baird), LRCX -2.6% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), SII -1.9% (initiated with Underperform at BMO), TRV -1.4% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), KMP -1.3% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Oppenheimer), ASML -1.0% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup).
  • Aasiast oli täna suures üle 5%lises miinuses Tai aktsiaturg - USA börsilkaubeldavaks Tai fondiks on TTF.

    Tai languse põhjuseks on nende 81-aastase kuninga tõsised terviseprobleemid.

    Thai stocks fell more than 5 percent on Thursday in a second day of heavy foreign selling on concerns over the health of Thailand's king, traders said, despite comments from the palace that his health was improving.
    Thailand's benchmark stock index, which has raced up more than 50 percent this year, was down 5.16 percent at a one-month low of 693.70 at 0520 GMT, led by selling in large-capitalised stocks.
    Earlier, a palace official told Reuters the king's health was improving but he needed time-consuming physical therapy.
    King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest-reigning monarch at age 81 and Thailand's single unifying figure, has been hospitalised since Sept. 19 when he was admitted with fever and fatigue.
  • GBP-lt tugev pullback tāna.
    The Bank of England's interest rate cuts and injection of money into the economy through quantitative easing (QE) are now working, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC (A050540.KQ - news) ) member Paul Fisher told the Financial Times.
  • Indeksid tiksuvad vaikselt ülespoole & siin üks klassikaline bullish arvamus:

    Harris of BoA Merrill lynch, for example, argues that we are seeing the lagged effect of the immense monetary and fiscal stimulus pumped into the system. The market can see the economic numbers improve and investors also know that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to push rates higher until 2011. That is because the output gap (the difference between what the economy is actually producing and its potential) is still large. Inflation will only start to emerge once that gap has been closed, and that could be some years away. So investors have the choice between cash yielding zero, government bonds at 3-4% and equities which can rise 3% in a week.


  • & samalt lehelt tasakaaluks ka üks karune nägemus:

    The bearish view came from Josh Rosner of Graham-Fisher. Mr Rosner was one of the first analysts to spot the potential havoc caused by the interaction between subprime mortgages and structured products like CDOs. He thinks the economy will not rebound as it did in the 1980s. Demographic trends are not as favourable (the baby boomers were entering their prime earning period in the 1980s; now they are retiring); while credit card use was about to explode (now it is contracting). He argues that small businesses, a key source of job creation are still being denied credit; one problem is that small businessmen can no longer afford to use their houses as collateral.

  • 3% nädalas :D

    1.03 astmes 52 = 365% aastas :D
  • Ma ei mäleta, et kunagi viimase 5 aasta jooksul nii vähe kasumihoiatusi oleks olnud kui selles kvartalis. ˇNii et selle järgi peaks järgmised kaks nädalat kõva ralli olema, sest midagi negatiivset tulemas ei ole..
  • aga ootused paistavad olevat veel palju kõrgemal...
  • Google prelim $5.89 vs $5.42 First Call consensus; revs ex TAC $4.38 bln vs $4.24 bln First Call consensus
  • IBM prelim $2.40 vs $2.38 First Call consensus; revs $23.6 bln vs $23.40 bln First Call consensus
  • IBM sees FY09 $9.85 vs $9.78 First Call consensus & previous FY09 guidance of at least $9.70; reaffirms FY10 roadmap
  • GOOG esimene reaktsioon oli +15 punkti, kuid hetkeks juba flat. IBM sai kohe tuntava müügisurve osaliseks, vajudes $123 toetustaseme juurde.
  • Huvitav saab oleme see tänane järelturg ja homne turg. GOOG suutis jah kohe liikuda kuid siis langes.
    Mida arvata nende tulemuste peale? GOOG reklaamis ikka kõvasti üles oma tulemusi.
  • GOOG ei ole mingi asi iseenesest,kui indeksid kukkuma hakkavad pole pääsu kellegil

    rimm on topist,,,

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