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Börsipäev 9. veebruar

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  • Sarnaselt eilsele ei ole mingeid olulisi makroandmeid USAst ka täna tulemas. Euroopa indeksid on päeva alustanud suuresti eilsete sulgumishindade juurest, USA futuurid on hetkel ca +0.6% kuni +0.8% üleval.
  • Taaskord head kuulamist Marc Faberilt, kes Bloombergi intervjuus käsitleb USA võlaprobleemi ning Hiina väljavaadet.

  • Täna kell 17.00 siiski tulemas üsna oluline näitaja, nimelt Dets. Wholesale Inventories, kust oodatakse 0.5% kasvu.
  • DAVID ROSENBERG: S&P 900 HERE WE COME! http://pragcap.com/david-rosenberg-sp-900-here-we-come
  • Traders and hedge funds have bet nearly $8bn (€5.9bn) against the euro, amassing the biggest ever short position in the single currency on fears of a eurozone debt crisis. (FT link)

    Pessimism euro suhtes on suureks kasvanud & kui tähelepanu taas dollari probleemidele läheb, siis võib euro teha korraliku ralli.

  • Marc Faberilt tõesti head kuulamist. Muidugi päris terav on küsida, et mida FED suitsetanud on?
  • Faber on selle aastal päris teravalt ka Obama tegevust kommenteerinud: "I don't have a very high opinion of Mr. Obama. I was negative of Mr. Bush but I think Mr. Obama makes him look like a genius." (video link siin)

  • Läti Q4 SKP langes 17,7% yoy, võrdluses kolmanda kvartaliga oli kasv aga 2,4% (qoq)
  • Eks nad jõulude ajal ikka rohkem laristasid
  • USA turud avanevad täna tugevalt ülevalpool. S&P500 ja Nasdaq100 futuurid hetkel +0.9%.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.55%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.42%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.01%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.24% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.44%
    Venemaa MICEX -1.72%
    Poola WIG +0.07%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.19%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng +0.96%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.46%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.89%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.78%
    Tai Set 50 -0.40%
    India Sensex 30 +0.67%

  • Give the Bulls Some Room
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/9/2010 8:40 AM EST

    Perhaps all pleasure is only relief.
    -- William S. Burroughs

    The travel plans of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet have sparked speculation that a plan to bail out Greece is in the works. That rumor is causing the euro to rally against the dollar, and the weaker dollar is helping to boost gold, oil, basic materials and a number of other sectors that have been struggling lately.

    The weak dollar was one of the main driving forces behind the market rally last year, but the greenback's recent rally has been keeping pressure on this market. We are seeing a pretty strong pullback in the dollar this morning, and that's causing the strong open.

    Even after the late-day bounce last Friday, the market has been very weak and is still quite oversold, so we are technically in position for a bit of a relief bounce. I was looking for this sort of bounce action yesterday and was surprised that the bulls were so anemic, but they have a better news excuse for strength today, and we are even more oversold after the weak action yesterday. As such, a relief rally here isn't a huge surprise.

    The important thing now is that we step back and look at the bigger picture. Don't be too fast to celebrate. The worst thing you can do is assume the character of the market is turning positive again just because we have a good bounce. A tremendous amount of damage has been done lately, and it won't be fixed quickly. The market can have a strong day or two and still remain technically broken.

    When the market is in a downtrend like we have seen over the past few weeks, we have to keep looking for failed bounces. In an uptrend, the best approach is to buy pullbacks. In a downtrend, the best approach is to sell strength. Failed rallies are the hallmark of a downtrend, and we have to assume they'll keep happening until we get proof to the contrary.

    The bounces within a downtrend can be very abrupt and very strong. There are always so many market players trying to catch a bounce that when one occurs after a nasty downtrend, we see a rush to add long exposure and that can really spike us up sharply. The sharp spike entices even more folks who are on sitting on the sidelines with high levels of cash, and we can see an even a bigger bounce as they are sucked into the market. That is why it is said that bear-market rallies are often the strongest.

    So at this point we need to be a bit skeptical of the bounce, but we'll give it some room in case the dip-buyers start chasing it. The burden of proof lies with the bulls, and they have been acting awfully anemic lately. Now they have some positive action to work with -- let's see how much juice they have. I suspect that this bounce is a selling/shorting opportunity and not the beginning of a new uptrend, but we need to have a little patience and see how things play out.

    Stay objective and don't get caught up in the emotional response of the bulls. They'll be very relieved to see some green, but there isn't any compelling reason to believe that our problems are over.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: ACLI +32.4% (light volume), CITZ +9.2% (thinly traded, light volume), HAR +7.7%, AIN +5.3% (light volume), ZBRA +3.7%, NYX +2.9% (light volume), CTSH +2.9%, ANDE +2.3%, UBS +1.3%, MCD +1.2% ... Select financial names showing strength: NBG +9.1% (Reuters reported that Greek bailout speculation lifts euro), DB +6.6%, LYG +5.8%, CS +5.6%, ING +5.6%, BCS +4.6%, STD +3.7%, RBS +3.6%, HBC +2.4%, MS +1.6%, WFC +1.3%, BAC +1.2%, JPM +1.2%, GS +1.0%... Select oil/gas related names trading higher: PBR +2.8%, E +2.2%, STO +1.7%, SLB +1.4%, TOT +1.3%, SU +1.3%, BP +1.1%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: HL +5.0%, RTP +4.0%, MT +3.7%, GOLD +3.6%, BHP +3.4%, VALE +3.3%, BBL +2.6%, SLV +2.4%, EGO +2.1%, GDX +2.0%, SLW +2.0%, GLD +1.3%... Other news: CERS +28.1% (reports positive outcome of Phase 1 Clinical Trial of INTERCEPT red blood cells), CLWT +14.9% (announces that its subsidiary, Yixing PACT Environmental Technology, has been awarded a contract by a Korean stainless steel company worth about $ 3.8 mln), DVAX +10.3% (announced initiation of a large-scale Phase 3 trial for HEPLISAV),\ TI +3.3% (still checking), TM +3.0% (Toyota to recall 436,000 hybrids globally - Reuters), AZN +2.9% (FDA approves new indication for AstraZeneca's CRESTOR)... Analyst comments: PETM +9.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), CAT +3.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), RDS.A +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight at HSBC), VZ +1.0% (upgraded to Mkt Perform at Bernstein).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LCAV -9.5%, ERTS -7.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), CONN -6.4%, TMRK -6.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), TPI -4.8%, MLM-3.9%, BWY -3.3%, HIG -3.0%, LNC -0.9%... Other news: EVEP -5.1% (commenced public offering of 3.0 million of its common units representing limited partner interests), NLY -3.2% (announces public offering of convertible senior notes)... Analyst comments: GME -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse).
  • Stiglitz soovitab interventsiooni.

    Economist Joe Stiglitz, who is advising the Greek government, denied that the country would require a bailout, and urged national authorities to intervene in markets to "teach the speculators a lesson," according to The Daily Telegraph on Tuesday. According to The Telegraph, he likened the situation to the Asian financial crisis, in which even healthy economies were targeted as hedge funds and investors withdrew from the region.

    "The speculators will always look for the weakest link. What they're doing now is a version of the Hong Kong double play in 1997/1998.“

    "What Hong Kong did in response was to raise interest rates and intervene in the stock market. They burnt the speculators and Europe needs to do the same thing."
  • Põhjuseid tänase turu ralli taga võib otsida Kreeka, Hispaania ja Portugali võlakirjade tulususe langusest (ja koos tulususe langusega kukuvad ka riskid riikide pankrotiohu osas). Järgnevalt 10-aastaste võlakirjade tulusused:

  • Varud vähenemas, mis viitab nõudluse võimalikule taastumisele:

    December Wholesale Inventories -0.8% vs +0.5% consensus, November revised to +1.6% from 1.5%

  • Kreeka hakkab püksirihma pingutama:

    Greece will cut all public sector salary supplements in 2010 by 10 pct, according to Finance Ministry - Reuters. Reuters reports that Greece will freeze public sector pensions above 2,000 euros a month, give 1.5 pct hike below. They will apply top 40 pct tax rate on incomes above 60,000 euros annually. Tax bill provides incentives to bring deposits back from abroad.
  • Bloated public sector: In Parliament, for example, the administrative staff has increased to 1,500 from 700 in the last few years, even though the number of members of Parliament has remained the same. Last year alone, 29,000 public-sector workers were hired to replace 14,000 who retired, according to the finance ministry.
    Aga samas: Striking is a bit of a national sport in Greece. Last month, the country’s unionized prostitutes took to the streets, protesting unlicensed competition from Russian and Eastern European immigrants.

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