Börsipäev 18. veebruar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 18. veebruar

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  • Täna kell 15.30 avaldatakse möödunud nädala esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate number. Ootuseks on ca 430 000, mis oleks väiksem kui möödunud korral näidatud 440 000. Kestvate töötuabiraha taotlejate numbrilt oodatakse langust 4.5 miljoni juurde. Aktsiaturgude seisukohast on nii, et mida väiksem number, seda parem. Samuti teatatakse jaanuarikuu tootjahinnaindeks, millelt oodatakse ca 0.8%list kasvu ning tuumikosalt ca 0.1%list kasvu.

    Jaanuarikuu juhtivad indikaatorid teatatakse kell 17.00 ning neilt oodatakes ca 0.5%list kasvu.
  • Täna kell 18.00 annan LHV Investeerimiskeskuses USA turuülevaate seminari. Kel teema vastu vähegi huvi, soovitan tulla kuulama. Kohtade arv on piiratud ning seminarile saab ennast registreerida sellel lingil. 

  • USA pole  oma majanduse stimuleerimist kaugeltki veel lõpetanud . Allolevalt graafikult on näha, et The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act stiimulpaketist on jõutud kulutada kõigest kolmandik ja seega  üksjagu taganttuult peaks jätkuma ka 2010. aastal.

  • LHV Maailma Pro investeerimisideele Fundtech'ile (FNDT) on Dougherty analüüsimaja eile õhtul tulemustejärgselt oma hinnasihti tõstnud $12.50 pealt $17 peale ja soovituse neutraalse pealt liigutanud ’osta’ peale.
  • Marc Faber ei ole Hiina suhtes enam nii optimistlik nagu ta seda oli varem ning möödapääsmatu majanduskasvu aeglustumise juures hindab ta kõrgeks ka riski, et pikaaegne edulugu lõppeb krahhiga.

    I expect the Chinese economy to slow down considerably. The bigger question is that, will it crash? To that my answer is, yes, that is also possible. If you look at the economic history of the US from the year 1800 to year 2000, they had lot of ups and down caused by financial crisis, economic crisis, Civil War, World War One and the Great Depression and so on. We expected to have a big setback in China, which I think is quite possible. I think there is 99 per cent possibility that China will slow down considerably and I would say there is 30 per chance that it will crash. Also if growth in China slows down, it will have devastating impact on the industrial commodity prices and also on those who supply these commodities. 

    Soojemat arvamust omab ta aga India kohta, millele pühendas oma viimase  Gloom Boom & Doom raporti:

    India has been built up on much lower level of economic development and has the large growth potential. And unlike China, the consumer markets in India are not saturated. For instance in China everybody already has mobile phones and refrigerators. But in India, markets are still not saturated therefore the growth potential is high probably for the next ten to fifteen years.

    Link intervjuule. 

  • Initial Claims 473K vs 438K consensus, prior revised to 442K from 440K.
    Continuing Claims stays flat at 4.563 mln.
    January Core PPI M/M +0.3% vs +0.1% consensus, prior 0.0%.
    January PPI M/M +1.4% vs +0.8% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.2%.
  • Portfolio Recovery Assoc (PRAA) will sell 1,250,000 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $52.50 per share
  • Marcquarie hinnangul valmistavad Goldman Sachsi (GS) 1Q10 tulemused pettumuse ja käimasoleva kvartali EPSi prognoos langetati $3.1 dollarile, mis on Street-low ja märgatavalt madalam konsensuse poolt oodatavast $4.17 dollarist:

    Macquarie Equities Research is out with a very interesting call on Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) saying their mid-quarter analysis of market conditions lead them to the conclusion that Goldman’s sequential improvement in 1Q10 will not be as robust as originally expected. Concerns over sovereign debt, potential antibusiness actions by the US government and China’s attempts to cool growth have conspired to slow the recovery in global capital markets activity (pikemalt notable callsis). 

  • USA futuurid on kesiste makronumbrite peale ca 0.2% kuni 0.4% miinuspoolel kauplemas.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.16%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.09%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.39%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.30% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.26%
    Venemaa MICEX -1.69%
    Poola WIG -0.49%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.28%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng -0.54%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.36%
    Tai Set 50 -0.21%
    India Sensex 30 -0.62%

  • Let the Battle Commence!
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/18/2010 8:54 AM EST

    The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.

    -- Malcolm Gladwell

    The market held up and even managed to tack on some mild gains on Wednesday, but technically, we are still extended and facing a good amount of overhead resistance. The bulls have some good earnings news to work with this morning from Priceline (PCLN) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) , but Wal-Mart (WMT) appears to be a slight disappointment.

    What was most impressive about the action yesterday was that a strong rebound in the dollar was shrugged off by the market. On Tuesday, it was weakness in the dollar that helped to trigger a good-sized rally, but the reversal yesterday was generally ignored -- although oil, gold and other commodities did exhibit some relative weakness.

    The dollar is up a little this morning and is hitting a multi-month high, but there isn't a lot of reaction so far. Gold is taking a hit, but that is related to the news that the International Monetary Fund plans to sell up to $6.9 billion of its gold holdings. Gold has had a strong positive correlation with the major indices, so it will be interesting to see if that linkage persists.

    Overall, the market has been working on a bounce for eight days now. Tuesday was the best day of action during that span, but we still haven't been able to manage a technical 'follow-through' day -- a day where the market confirms a turn with a further good-sized move on above-average volume. The problem is that we just aren't seeing very good volume. While the bounce is impressive in its length, it has not had sufficient vigor to qualify as something more than an oversold bounce.

    We have had a little better leadership lately from technology stocks, and some of the key momentum groups, particularly China, have bounced, but we still don't have any red-hot pockets of momentum like we saw in the second half of 2009.

    Last year, the market consistently frustrated the bears. Last year, when we were extended and facing overhead resistance, we'd cut through it with great ease. The dip buyers would jump in on the most shallow of pullbacks and we'd just continue to trend upward until we made a new high.

    That was unusual action and not what we'd normally expect to see, however. This time, our recent bounces after breakdowns have not had the same amount of vigor, but it is impressive that the bulls are still chugging along after eight days. They haven't given up and headed back to the sidelines, even though they have made limited progress at times.

    When it comes down to positioning, the key factor for me is how many good, buyable charts I find. If the indices are acting poorly, but I still see charts I like, then I'll play those pockets of strength.

    The problem I have now is that after a rally attempt of eight days, we have a lot of stocks that have made strong moves right into resistance and don't offer good entry points. For example, look at HPQ this morning, which is up on a solid earnings report. The stock is gapping up to $50.50 or so, which is almost exactly the 50-day simple moving average. That is about a $4 bounce off the recent lows and, technically, that is tough resistance.

    There are plenty of other charts like HPQ out there and they either need to consolidate or correct before the market will have a better foundation to cut through the overhead resistance that it faces. The bulls have been doing a fine job of holding on to gains, but it is much tougher to make big upside moves from here. Fortunately, all they really need to do is hold us steady for a few days, which will give us a better launch pad for more upside. But the bears tasted success not that long ago and are going to be anxious to press their bets if we start to struggle.

    It is going to be an interesting battle and we need to stay very vigilant and flexible if we want to profit.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: INTT +34.3% (light volume), VDSI +9.4%, AEA +6.3%, PCLN +6.2%, ABB +5.3%, ITRI +4.4%, GT +2.9%, ENH +2.8% (light volume), ADI +2.2%, CECO +2.1%, NXY +2.1%, CLF +1.3%, HNZ +1.0%, HPQ +0.8%, AMAT +0.5% ... M&A news: ZNT +27.1% (Bloomberg reports that Fairfax is in talks to buy the co; may pay $38/share in cash )... Select financials showing strength: DB +1.7%, BCS +1.4%... Other news: VLNC +22.0% (Valence Tech, Beneteau group sign exclusive multi-year supply agreement worth up to $45 mln), SOLR +2.6% (GT Solar and Jiangxi announces new order totalling $20 mln), APC +1.7% (announces first deepwater discovery offshore Mozambique), EXPE +1.4% (trading higher in sympathy with PCLN)... Analyst comments: FSLR +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Brigantine), DE +1.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), VMW +0.9% (initiated with Buy at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RICK -10.8% (also the co and VCGH enter into letter of intent to merge to form largest publicly traded N. American Gentlemen's Club Owner), OC -4.3% , VCLK -4.3% , RAX -3.0% , AMMD -2.7% (also announces sale of Her Option global endometrial ablation product line), CPB -2.4% , IAG -1.5% (light volume), HWAY -1.4%... Other news: SIRO -5.6% (announced that it is filing a prospectus supplement to its existing shelf registration statement with the U.S. SEC relating to an underwritten public offering by Sirona Holdings Luxco S.C.A. of 7,000,000 shares of its common stock), DSCI -4.0% (prices a 972K share common stock offering at $5.50/share), PRAA -2.9% (announces public offering of 1 mln shares of its common stock), GSIC -2.4% (announces offering of common stock by selling stockholder), BP -2.1% (trading ex dividend)... Analyst comments: CTXS -0.8% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup).
  • February Philadelphia Fed 17.6 vs 17.0 consensus, prior 15.2
    January Leading Indicators +0.3% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%
  • Small plane crashes into Austin, Texas, FBI office, Fox News reports - DJ
  • Robert Shiller Yale University-st CNBC peal kergelt negatiivne poliitikute ja riigijuhtide tegevuse suunal. Teesiks järgnevate aastate väga madala majandusaktiivsus ka stiimulite najal ning tema sõnul põhiprobleem on selles, et keegi ei julge seda välja öelda. Sellest tulenevalt suure tõenäosusega tulevikus saadakse suure pettumuse osaliseks ja usaldus ning stabiilsus jällegi haamri all.
  • MGM tulemuste peale -7%
    viva las vegas :)
    Niipalju siis casino turust!
  • to harley: LVS 1Y +438% ka peale tänast kukkumist. tunnen kaasa.
  • Senator Dodd planning to introduce new financial overhaul bill next week - WSJ
  • US Senate Banking Committee members mull watered-down version of 'Volcker Rule', according to sources - Reuters
  • Banking Committee Members are considering strengthened supervision of banks involved in proprietary trading, according to sources - Reuters
  • Whithey CNBC-s üsna negatiivne pankade suhtes ja large cap ettevõtetele prognoosib vähemalt 10-15% langust sellel aastal. Kui finantssektorist kuhugi üldse investeerida, siis mainib BAC-i, mis ühtib ka meie LHV Pro inv. ideega.
  • Turg ei tee isegi mitte väikest jõnksu Withney negatiivsete kommentaaride peale.
  • Meredith Whitney, on CNBC, says her profit expectations are 30% below Street expectations because people are not incorporating a lot into their expectations for once the government takes the punch bowl away
  • Bank of America: Meredith Whitney calls BAC a "less worse bank" when asked if there was any bank that she would buy right now; says they have a lot of assets to sell and she thinks they will optimize those options to sell
  • US Treasury's Geithner says jobs, income growth in months, year ahead - DJ
  • First Solar prelim $1.65 vs $1.52 First Call consensus; revs $641.3 mln vs $581.44 mln First Call consensus
  • First Solar reiterates 2010 guidance for revenues, EPS, free cash flow, CapEx and op cash flow from Jan 17th Analyst Day meeting
  • Dell prelim $0.28 vs $0.27 First Call consensus; revs $14.9 bln vs $13.85 bln First Call consensus
  • Mille peale ES kukkuma hakkas? Ei leia uudist esimese hooga.
  • Täpsemalt siis ka

    Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures retreated as the Federal Reserve boosted the discount rate it charges on loans to banks after the close of exchanges in New York.

    Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March lost 0.6 percent to 1,099.5 at 4:33 p.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring next month slid 41 points, or 0.4 percent, to 1,0334.

    The Fed raised the discount rate from 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, saying the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term loans.
  • http://www.ap3.ee/article/2010/02/18/Ameerika_osariik_tahab_dollari_kullaga_asendada
  • Sellespärast IMF tahabki 190 tonni kulda turgu lükata.

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