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Börsipäev 23. veebruar

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  • Täna tuleb USAst kaks makronumbrit. Eesti aja järgi kell 16.00 teatatakse detsembrikuu Case-Schillery 20 linna indeks (indeksi kohta saab pikemalt lugeda siit), millelt oodatakse -3.1%list langust. Novembris oli langus -5.3%.

    Kell 17.00 teatatakse veebruarikuu tarbijausalduse näitaja, kust oodatakse 55.0 punktilist näitu. Aktsiaturgude seisukohast oleks hea näha võimalikult suurt tarbijausalduse näitu, sest see tähendaks, et inimesed kulutaksid hõlpsamini rohkem raha kõrgest tööpuuduse määrast hoolimata. Jaanuaris oli näit 55.9 punkti.

    Varastel hommikutundidel on USA tähtsamate indeksite futuurid püsimas eilsete sulgumistasemete juures. 

  • Mervyn King-i tänase sõnavõtu katkend UK parlamendis:
    There are signs of recovery in demand around the world and in Great Britain, but "this nascent recovery is fragile," Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told a parliamentary committee on Tuesday in prepared remarks. "The tensions that underlay the build-up of large world imbalances have not been resolved. And, at home, bank lending to the non-financial sector continues to fall," he said. Risks to the Monetary Policy Committee's central forecast for a gradual recovery of output remain to the downside, he said.
  • Täna avaldati saksamaa ärikliima IFO indeks:
    The Munich-based Ifo Institute on Tuesday said its business sentiment index slipped to 95.2 from 95.8 in January for the first decline in ten months. Economists had forecast a rise to 96.4.
    The figure follows a decline last week in the ZEW gauge of German investor confidence. The Ifo fall was driven largely by a setback in the retailing sector, the institute said.
    "For now, we still expect a strong competitive position to mean that Germany expands by a solid 2% this year. But if sentiment fails to pick back up in the coming months, that view will start to look too optimistic," she said.
    Põhjendusesk tuuakse jällegi halvenenud ilmastikutingimusi.

  • Igaljuhul kui järgmine kord politseile kiiruseületamisega vahele jääte, siis ärge kohe seisma jääge ning mängige auto gaasipedaaliga. Pärast lõplikku peatumist öelge, et teie pole süüdlane, vaid ohver. Ning nõudke politsei kaameralinti mitte süütõendi vaid asitõendina endale ning pöörduge kohtusse ning süüdistage autotootjat ning nõudke endale sadu tuhandeid kroone emotsionaalse õuduse läbielamise eest : ) USAs oleks see väga reaalne... Eesti ühiskond ses osas pisut konservatiivsem.

    Ma tahaksin tegelikult teada, kuidas eristatakse need, kes on tõesti oma autoga hädas olnud ja need, kes on valmis autotegijat niisama raha saamiseks süüdistama?

    Link ühele loole siin. 

  • Tundub üha rohkem, et Toyota maine kahjustus läheb ettevõttele väga kulukaks. Pikemalt kirjutasime portaalis Toyota juhtumist siin. Toon loost välja Audi juhtumi näite:

    "Sõiduautode ootamatu kiirendamisega on ajaloost valus näide võtta Audil. 1980ndatel seostati kuus surma USAs Audi iseenesest kiirendavate gaasipedaalidega. Kuigi pärast selgus, et viga oli ikkagi gaasipedaali vajutajas, jõudis meedia teema suureks puhuda. Audi otsustas võimaliku vea peale sajad tuhanded autod tehastesse tagasi kutsuda. Juhtum andis Audi mainele valusa hoopi ja ettevõtte müük kukkus USAs 83%-i võrra. Kui 1985. aastal müüs Audi 74 061 autod, siis 1991 kõigest 12 283."

  • Case-Schiller vastavalt ootustele:

    December S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y -3.08% vs -3.10% consensus, prior -5.34%
  • U.S. Chain store sales increased 1.9% in week ended Feb 20 vs year-ago week, according to Redbook
  • Siin ka üks video sellest, mida TM-le süüks pannakse..

  • Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.76%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.54%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.16%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.52% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.27%
    Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
    Poola WIG -0.62%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.47%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng +1.21%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.70%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.13%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.32%
    Tai Set 50 +1.62%
    India Sensex 30 +0.30%

  • You Can't Trust This Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/23/2010 8:38 AM EST

    Half of life is luck; the other half is discipline -- and that's the important half, for without discipline you wouldn't know what to do with luck.
    -- Carl Zuckmeyer

    Trading is about dilemmas. On any given day you can always find some positives but there is also going to be a set of negatives. Our job comes down to weighing which set of factors will assert the most influence on any given day.

    The biggest positive currently is that we are going up. Rising prices trump all other considerations. It doesn't matter how smart and compelling the bears might be -- if we are going up, the bulls are making the money.

    What makes things so tricky in the current market is that the foundation for these steadily rising prices is so shaky. It is very hard to trust it to continue when the momentum behind the move is so weak. That has been the case for a while, and I'm a bit tired of writing about it. Obviously these extended technical conditions don't mean that we can't just keep on rising. But it's very tough to buy with conviction unless you are a true believer who doesn't care about technical conditions.

    I'm also tired of writing about "V"-shaped moves, but that has been the key to the market action for nearly a year now. The propensity for "V"-ish moves is what has produced this big rally since last March and has caused so many market players to be chronically underinvested.

    The problem is that "V"-ish moves is that they just don't warrant much trust or confidence. It is the process of constantly backing and filling and consolidating that helps create a foundation from which the market can continue to trend upward. When that doesn't happen and we just go straight back up on declining volume, there is much greater risk that a bout of profit-taking will suddenly spike us down. When we have eight, nine or 10 days or more of rising prices, there are big gains to protect, so when some selling does kick in there is a rush to protect profits. As gains suddenly begin to erode, the exits get jammed and we end up giving back four, five or six days of profits.

    The bulls' response to these observations is that the "V" moves have worked, and all this worrying over that pattern is just costing you money. Maybe you should just forget that stuff and stay long this market.

    Certainly that is an alternative, but from my viewpoint, good trading and investing is all about establishing a methodology and controlling risk. Quite often your methodology and discipline will cost you as the market fails to follow the traditional patterns, but it's the long run that counts.

    The most important thing in investing is to stay in the game and protect your capital. If you don't do that, nothing else matters. That is why you have stay disciplined and use a methodology that may err on the side of caution. In my methodology, I simply can't trust "V"-ish moves very much, because over the years I have found that I'm not going to make good money if I chase stocks that are extended on light volume.

    So here we are with an extended market and a weak foundation. We may indeed keep going up -- in fact, it seems almost likely given the nature of this market -- but my methodology and discipline keeps me from putting much money to work. It might not be the right move in the short term, but I know that in the long run it is the way to go.

    Early indications are for some slight weakness. Europe was mostly down and Asia mostly up. Keep an eye on the dollar; an up move in the greenback is likely to be the catalyst that leads to some selling.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NDSN +8.5%, RDN +8.4%, NIV +6.6%, APEI +6.4%, FDML +4.7%, SHLD +4.5%, IDA +4.4%, SAH +3.4%, AMED +2.4% (light volume), LIZ +2.3%, HD +1.6%, PRGN +1.3% (light volume), PEGA +1.2% ... M&A news: SSTI +3.8% (Microchip Technology announces amendment to definitive agreement for acquisition of Silicon Storage Technology)... Select mortgage insurer related names showing strength boosted by RDN earnings: MTG +4.9%, MBI +3.9%, PMI +3.7%... Other news: PIP +32.5% (Awarded up to Additional $78.4 mln Under Existing Contract for Advanced Development of SparVax Anthrax Vaccine), IFLG +22.4% (continued strength from yesterday's 200%+surge higher), ZLC +11.4% (Apollo seeks stake in Zale - WSJ ), CPRX +10.5% (Catalyst Pharma Partners and The National Institute on Drug Abuse plan to initiate U.S. Phase II(b) clinical trial for cocaine addiction), TXCC +3.8% (Chairman bought 48,750 shares at $1.95-2.18 on 2/18-2/19), CIM +3.6% (still checking), HP +3.0% (will replace IMS Health in the S&P 500 index), AMLN +1.9% (Amylin and Takeda announce decision to advance development of Pramlintide/Metreleptin combination treatment for obesity), KNOT +1.4% (announces $50 mln stock repurchase program; upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity), PRSP +1.1% (will replace Helmerich & Payne in the S&P MidCap 400)... Analyst comments: CAVM +1.0% (UBS initiates with a Buy).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VCI -5.8% (light volume)... M&A news: SLB -4.6% (Smith Int'l and Schlumberger announce merger agreement; SII shareholders to receive 0.6966 shares of SLB, a value of $45.84)... Other news: IRE -5.8% and AIB -2.3% (Irish "bad bank" transfers delayed until end March - UK Reuters), OC -2.8% (filed for a common stock shelf offering by a selling shareholder), GSK -2.3% (Reviewers urge Glaxo's Avandia come off market - Reuters), SA -1.4% (announces 2.5 mln common share offering)... Analyst comments: VSH -1.7% (downgraded to Mkt Weight at Weisel), STP -1.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), LDK -1.2% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), NETL -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Brigantine based on valuation), TKC -1.0% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman), YGE -0.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), GILD -0.8% (downgraded to Sell at Morgan Joseph).
  • Russell 2000/IWM probing Monday's high bar low at 630.46/63.02
  • February Consumer Confidence 46.0 vs 55.0 consensus, January 56.5
    Ja turg tuleb kui kivi!
  • Tarbijausalduse number on siin nüüd tõesti pettumust valmistamas.
  • Present Situation ehk tänase olukorra hinnang kukkus 19.4 punktile - nii madalat näitu polegi vist indeksi ajaloo jooksul kunagi nähtud? Link aruandele siin. 

  • Greenspan says economic recovery "extremely unbalanced", driven by those with high incomes as stock prices recovered - Reuters
  • Seni on kõik põrkeüritused ära müüdud, kui siit nüüd põrgata ei jõuta siis võib õhtupoolik üsna veriseks minna.
  • Moody's downgrades hybrid securities ratings in Spain; Approximately EUR32 billion of securities affected
  • $44 bln 2-year Auction Results- Yield 0.895% (expected 0.912%); Bid/Cover 3.33x (5-auction avg 3.21x, Prior 3.13x); Indirect Bidders 53.6% (5-auction avg 42.4%, Prior 43.1%)
  • Bank of America approves proposal to increase the number of authorized common shares to 11.3 bln from 10 bln
  • White House says remains committed to 'Volcker Rule' - DJ
  • Salix pharma (SLXP) kauplemine peatatud, miskit tulemas FDA poolt.
  • Regional Fed hawks led push for discount rate hike - Reuters
    Reuters reports some senior Federal Reserve policymakers have been pushing for an increase in the discount rate charged to banks for emergency loans since mid-January, according to minutes from a central bank meeting. Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Fed, and his St. Louis counterpart James Bullard were first to call for the rate hike that was ultimately implemented last week, minutes of the Jan. 25 gathering showed. "In light of improving conditions in financial markets, some Federal Reserve Bank directors indicated that they favored increasing the primary credit rate by 25 basis points in order to begin to restore a more normal discount rate structure," the minutes said. The Fed has maintained that its move last week, which pushed the so-called primary credit rate up to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent, should not be interpreted as the opening salvo of a monetary policy tightening cycle. Instead, the Fed -- the U.S. central bank -- remains committed to keeping benchmark interest rates exceptionally low for an extended period of time, a promise reiterated in the Federal Open Market Committee's January statement. That the measure was led by some of the most hawkish voices within the bank could prompt some investors to second-guess such reassurance. It was Hoenig who, upon rotating back into a voting seat at January's meeting, dissented against the "extended period" language in favor of a less explicit low-rates vow. Hoenig has said that such language was devised to grapple with emergency conditions that are no longer in place. The discount rate minutes highlighted how much the Fed's outlook on the economy improved over the course of the month.
  • RUT on saanud huvitava toetustaseme 624 punkti peal, kuigi MA 50 621 kandis. Kas siit läbi kukkumisel ka suurem dip?
  • Huvi pärast sai kuulatud STEC 4Q conf calli ja mulje jäi suhteliselt kurb:
    a) Lisaks sellele, et EMC orderid puuduvad Q1 (see oli oodatud) jäi mulje, et puudub kindlus ka edasise suhtes. Kui analüütik küsis, et kuidas 2H10 orderitega on, siis vastus, et pole veel.. et liiga pikalt ette. Samas, kui EMC inventory läbipõletamine edeneb, siis võiks enamvähem selgust olla ka tulevaste orderite suhtes.. ja 2009 EMC suur order tehti küll pikalt ette. Ühesõnaga, jäi üsna kehv tunne kõige suurema kliendi osas, mitte ainult Q1, vaid ka pikemas perspektiivis.
    b) Gross margin on alla tulemas juba see kvartal ja oodatavalt ka edaspidi. Kuigi juhtkond lubab mitte hinnaga võidelda, siis praegustelt SSD -de high 50's marginaalidelt pakuvad tulekut ca 40% juurde nagu kõvaketaste tootjatel.. tuletan meelde, et kuigi praegu on kõvaketaste tootjatel suhteliselt hästi läinud, siis ajalooliselt on see suhteliselt )(/#")(¤")/¤&" äri olnud, pidevad hinnasõjad ja oversupplyd.
    c) Huvi äratamine teiste klientide kui EMC juures ei edene mitte kuidagi. Kellegagi mingit reaalset käivet ei ole, huvi äratamiseks tehakse rebatesid jne.. Kui niivõrd varases tehnoloogia levikufaasis + tehnoloogiatsükli tõusufaasis tuleb klientide huvi äratamiseks rebatesid kasutada, siis see on suht masendav. Lisaks on rebated sisuliselt sitema gross margini peitmine kõrgemasse opexisse.. kui see ära tasandada, siis tähendab see gross marginile veel kehvemat väljavaadet. ja tehnoloogiaaktsiad käivad praktiliselt alati just gross margini järgi.
    d) Opexist rääkides.. inimeste juurdepalkamine ja rebated tähendavad suuremaid kulusid..
    e) Järgmiste kvartalite osas Q1 edasi midagi konkreetset ei räägitud.. samas, mulje jäi, et Q2 on pigem sarnane Q1 -ga ja 2H osas tekkis vähemalt mul tugevaid kahtlusi, et see pressiteates lubatud normaliseerumine on pigem lootus kui kindel väljavaade.. seega ootaks väga tugevat selle aasta ootuste lõikust analüütikute poolt. Pakuks, et 2010 revenue estimate tõmbavad vähemalt konservatiivsemad analüütikud ca $200 mln juurde.. võrdluseks, tulemuste eelne ootus oli $411 mln Yahoo andmetel. Yes,it is that ugly.

    Ühesõnaga, tundub suhteliselt broken storyna. Uus tehnoloogia, mida keegi ei taha, kliendid ei võta omaks, kõige suurema ja tehnoloogiat nö valideerinud kliendi osas tekib tõsiseid küsimusi... fugly.

    Mis aktsiat veel üleval võiks hoida?
    a) Mõningane tehnoloogia väärtus
    b) $125 mln cashi bilansis ja $80 mln buyback.. samas, järgmised kvartalid saavad olema kahjumlikud ja buyback viib raha välja.. üldse see buyback tundub VÄGA idiootne. Bilanss ei ole nii tugev, rahavood on vägagi ebakindlad, investeeringuid tuleb pidevalt teha jne. Kahtlane, et reaalselt midagi tagasi ostma hakatakse, tundub ainult aktsia toeks tehtuna.
    c) Q1 perse oli oodatud ja selle ootuses kõvasti shorte sees, samuti üleüldiselt väga kõrge short interest (üle 40%).. shortide tees on suuremalt jaolt täitunud ja seega võiks oodata mõningast katmist ja squeezemiskatseid ning seda näitas ka järelturu action..

    All in all, pakuks aktsiale sobivaks valuatsiooniks mingi 2x selle aasta käivet.. ehk siis ca $400 mln ja aktsia väärtuseks $8 homme/selle nädala lõpuks.
  • Ahjaa, üks oluline pluss veel:
    d) Ettevõtte väitel pole praegu konkurente näha ja seda vähemalt 2010 lõpuni.
  • Panen siia STEC-i numbrid ka:
    STEC Inc prelim $0.51 vs $0.51 First Call consensus; revs $106.0 mln vs $101.84 mln First Call consensus
    STEC Inc sees Q1 ($0.11)-($0.13) vs $0.29 First Call consensus; sees revs $33-35 mln vs $79.73 mln First Call consensus
  • Revenue estimated isegi veel allapoole minu esmapilgul suhteliselt julgeid ootusi:
    - JP Morgan: downgrade to Neutral, 2010 rev est to $153.7 mln from $473.6 mln - jep, 2/3 võrra alandavad ootusi.
    - Deutsche Bank: downgrade to Hold, 2010 rev est to $207.5 mln..

    Siiamaani rohkem kommentaare pole, aga ilmselt näeme mingit $6 ringi targetit ka veel täna.. ja aktsiat $8 juures.
  • Sarjast "huvitavaid DCF mudeleid": JP Morgani worst case implied stock price: -$0.53

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