Börsipäev 25. märts - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 25. märts

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  • USA futuurid on varastel hommikutundidel ca 0.2% plusspoolel kauplemas. Üks huvitav graafik, mis mulle eile silma jäi, oli USA 10-aastase võlakirja tulususmäär, mis rallis 3.84%ni. Usun, et sellel tasub silma peal hoida, kuna üha kõrgem tulususmäär võlakirjaturul on suureks konkurendiks aktsiainvesteeringutele.

    Makroandmete poole pealt ootame täna kell 14.30 esmaste töötuabiraha taotlejate näitu (ootuseks 450 000) ja kestvate töötu abiraha taotlejate arvu (ootuseks 4.562 miljonit). Mida väiksemad need numbrid on, seda parem aktsiaturgudele.

    Kõigile LHV foorumikülastajatele siinkohal aga palve minu poolt. Oma magistritöö raames palun abi ca 10 minutilise aktsiaturgude teemalise küsitluse täitmisel. Tõsi, tavaliselt pooldame selliste küsitluste panemist 'vaba teema' alla, kuid kuna töö teema on seotud otseselt investeerimise ja aktsiaturgudega, kasutan moderaatori õigusi ning levitan oma küsitlust kuni märtsikuu lõpuni ka siinses börsipäeva foorumis. Link küsitlusele on siin. Palun kõigil, kel vähegi võimalik, selle täitmiseks 10 minutit eraldada. Suured tänud kõigile vastajatele! 

  • Mis nime all esineb foorumites staarinvestor (Äripäev) Arvo Nõges?
  • Kuivõrd sellise info levitamine teiste poolt on üsna ebaeetiline, siis viisakas oleks ka põhjus kirjutada, miks selline teave vajalik.
  • Ah, ega ei olegi vajalik. Lihtsalt lugesin Äripäeva.
    Võtan küsimuse päevakorrast maha.
  • Tänahommikune makro oli oodatust pisut parem:

    Initial Claims 442K vs 450K consensus, prior revised to 456K from 457K
    Continuing Claims falls to 4.648 mln from 4.702 mln
  • Texas Industries misses by $0.13, misses on revs (37.62)
    Reports Q3 (Feb) loss of $0.98 per share, $0.13 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.85); revenues fell 34.1% year/year to $117.8 mln vs the $123.1 mln consensus. "Net cash provided by operating activities was a positive $6.9 million during the quarter despite sales being down $60.8 million or 34% and all three cement plants incurring scheduled maintenance expenses. Abnormally inclement weather in all of our markets and the continuing impact of the recession led to cement, aggregate and ready-mix concrete volumes being down 24%, 40% and 31%, respectively. I think our operational focus of managing costs and generating cash along with our strong liquidity position have us well positioned for these uncertain times."

    Aktsia ei ole reageerinud tulemustele, kuid müügiäär $37.29.
  • USA S&P500 ja Nasdaq100 indeksi futuurid on eelturul ca +0.4% ning väga lähedal uute 1.5 aasta tippude tegemisele.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.82%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.83%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.56%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.55%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.36%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.39%
    Poola WIG +1.21%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.13%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.10%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.23%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.71%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.08%
    Tai Set 50 -0.20%
    India Sensex 30 +0.62%

  • Hold Your Ground
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/25/2010 8:46 AM EDT

    In the confrontation between the stream and the rock, the stream always wins; not through strength, but through persistence.
    -- Author unknown

    I often write that poor markets tend to wear you out rather than scare you out. When we are caught in a downtrend and go down day after day -- like we did a bit over a year ago -- many market players just gave up out of disgust. They aren't scared out by a sudden crash but are just worn out when the trend is unrelenting and it feels like conditions will never change.

    Here we are a year later, and the action is the mirror image. The bears have been ground into dust by this market that never seems to slow down. We haven't had any unusually large point gains, but the trend has been so steady and so consistent that it has worn out anyone who has been fighting it.

    The big difference is that when the market is trending upward like this, there is a lot of celebration by the buy-and-hold crowd and the media. In the simplistic world of the popular press, up is always good and down is always bad.

    The current uptrend is wearing out both underinvested bulls and bears who are hoping for even a minor amount of volatility. We have not had a full day of selling in nearly six weeks of trading. That is fantastic if you just buy and do nothing, but if you trade or are looking to put capital to work, it invokes a certain level of disgust after a while.

    So here we are again this morning with more positive action as a rescue of Greece is now looking more likely once again and the dollar weakens slightly. The big news yesterday was a sharp decline in bonds, and we'll have to see if that develops further.

    My advice for dealing with this market remains what it has been for a while: Try not to be overly anticipatory in looking for a top. If you are doing that, you are very likely worn out by this market. The approach that is working is to stay very-short-term bullish and to be very zealous in protecting gains. It is extremely tough to put new money to work in this environment, but that doesn't mean that the alternative is to fight it and look for a reversal.

    Until we have some greater volatility, it is going to be a tough market to aggressively trade unless you have no fear of greatly extended charts.

    We have some good earnings reports this morning from Best Buy (BBY) , Lululemon Athletica (LULU) and several others. Citigroup (C) is gapping up on news that the Fed may look to sell some of its holdings. Weekly unemployment claims are slightly better than expected and once again there is nothing but blue skies and apple pies.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NIV +25.8%, CRXX +15.1%, BKRS +13.8% (light volume), LULU +11.0%, TRIT +10.1%, ANCI +9.3%, BBY +8.1%, CAAS +6.8%, OMN +6.2%, GIII +5.5%... Select financial names trading higher: AIB +3.8%, IRE +3.3%, SNV +3.3%, STD +3.2%, C +2.9% (expands efforts to keep families in their homes with commitment to second-lien program), BCS +2.7%, RBS +1.9%, ING +1.7%, BAC +1.5%, AIG +1.2%, BK +1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: MT +2.5%, SLW +2.3%, RTP +1.5%, GOLD +1.4%, BBL +1.2%... Other news: SLXP +9.8% (FDA approves XIFAXAN 550 MG tablets for reduction in risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy recurrence; target raised to $42 from $38 at Jefferies), SCLN +8.1% (announced the European approval of ondansetron RapidFilm), CIGX +5.7% (Iroquois Capital Management discloses 7.8% stake in 13G), ETM +4.4% (Cramer said political radio ad spending will be "off the charts' which will benefit ETM - CNBC), SPWRA +2.7% (announces proposed offering of $200 mln senior cash convertible debentures), RTN +1.1% (increases dividend 21% to $1.51; co also announces new $2.0 bln share repurchase plan), AZN +1.1% (still checking), SHPGY +1.0% (Presents Positive Data for Patients with Type 1 Gaucher Disease Who Switched to VPRIV)... Analyst comments: GAME +4.6% (initiated with Buy at Auriga), EBAY +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), MAR +2.1% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), FSLR +1.6% (resumed with Buy at Kaufman).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RHT -2.8%, CAG -2.3%, PAYX -2.3%, CKR -1.3% (light volume)... Other news: MSN -26.8% (trading ex dividend), MELA -22.5% (has received additional questions from FDA regarding the review status of the PM application of its MelaFind device for early melanoma detection; downgraded to Sell Short at WBB Securities and downgraded to Sell at Roth Capital), FHN -6.5% (discloses two subsidiaries along with an executive officer received written "Wells" notices), DYAX -3.4% (filed for a common stock offering for an indeterminate amount), CLFC -2.7% (files for 3.45 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), CIM -2.7% (trading ex dividend), AEM -2.4% (still checking), WCRX -2.0% (still checking), DCTH -1.7% (files $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3 filing), DAKT -1.3% (expecting a lighter backlog going into Q4)... Analyst comments: AXL -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), GENZ -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), BRCD -2.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Bernstein), TX -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), AMED -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), CHH -1.1% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), VOD -0.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), FE -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), SBUX -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird).
  • Apple target raised to $265 from $250 at BMO Capital Markets
  • Eurogroup's Juncker says more confident than before that there will be a deal in Greece tonight - Reuters
  • Tänast võimsat rallit S&P500s on igaljuhul vedamas finantssektor. XLF on +2.45%, olles turust tõusnud üle kahe korra enam.

    C +5.3%, DB +3.6%, BAC +3.5%, WFC +3.3% jne.
  • Kuigi BAC oleks old atraktiivsem, seoses laienemisplaanidega Hiinasse
  • P.S Citigroup, Inc
    kirjaviga tuli sisse
  • Arne Alsin ütleb RealMoney all väga hästi, et investeeringute haldamise mõistmiseks tuleks lisaks majanduse või raamatupidamisõpingutele aru saada ka sellest, kuidas toimib inimpsühholoogia ning kasuks tulevad ka kokkupuuted õigusvaldkonnaga, et ühe aktsia plusside nägemise kõrval oskaks ka miinuste külge välja tuua.

    Arne Alsin
    What to study to get into money management
    3/25/2010 11:38 AM EDT
    I get asked a lot by young people about what they should study in order to pursue a career in money management, and I tell them 3 things: (1) Accounting - it's the language of business, after all (2) Psychology - with the tech euphoria just 10 years ago, the palpable pessimism just last year, it's essential to understand psychology, to be counter-intuitive, to understsand biases, etc., (3) Law - while I'm sure JJC will agree that law is not "on point," as they say, in terms of preparation, from day one in law school you're forced to be able to argue both sides of a case. Too many investors fall in love with an idea/theme and can't see the other side.
  • Euro Zone to shoulder 2/3 of burden of aid for Greece, IMF to take up 1/3, according to EU sources - Reuters

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