Börsipäev 17. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Läinud nädal päädis taas positiivse noodiga, kui S&P 500 kerkis 1,7%, näidates viie päeva lõikes 6%list ja 3. oktoobri põhjadest 11%list tõusu. Ka toorainete turg on positiivse sentimendi saatel kõrgemale liikunud, seda eesotsas vasega, mis kallines reedel 3% ning kaupleb aasta põhjadest ligi 10% kõrgemal.

    Põhjuse optimismiks andis USA oodatust parem jaemüük ning varasemate kuude numbrite korrigeerimine kõrgemale, mis on lubanud analüütikutel kolmanda ja neljanda kvartali majanduskasvu prognoose tõsta. Kuigi tarbijate kindlustunne näitas reedel halvenemist ning ka Euroopa võlakriis annab põhjuse aktsiaturgude suhtes jätkuvalt ettevaatlik olla, ei tohiks samas alahinnata turgude võimet siit veel kõrgemale ronida, seda eriti olukorras, kus käive on järjest rohkem kokku kuivanud.

    Tänane makrokalender jääb suhteliselt õhukeseks, kui fookuses on USA data. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse oktoobri Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitus ja kell 16.15 septembri tööstustoodangu muutus.

    Käesoleval nädalal saab tulemustehooaeg juba korraliku hoo sisse, kui raporteerimas on 20% S&P 500 ettevõtetest. Täna enne turgu avaldavad oma möödunud kvartali numbrid muuhulgas Citigroup, Halliburton, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo. Pärast turgu tulevad aga IBM, Stanley Black & Decker.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,5% kõrgemal ning Euroopa on avanemas 0,8% plusspoolel.
  • Zero Hedge vahendas nädalavahetusel Deutsche Bank'i analüütiku Alan Ruskini kirjutist, mille kohaselt on euro (ja ühtlasi ka S&P500) viimase kahe nädala tõusu üheks peamiseks põhjuseks Prantsusmaa pankade likviidsusprobleemid ja ka kohustusliku reservimäära tõstmise nõue, mille leevendamiseks on pangad realiseerimas USA dollaris nomineeritud varasid.
    In the last few days there has been talk that European bank repatriation of capital may be behind EUR strength. Setting aside the timing of asset sales, and the reduced universe of potential bidders for these assets, it is worth considering what happens when a European bank sells USD assets. European banks in aggregate are regarded as having a still sizable shortfall of USD liabilities. The most recent data for the end of 2010 (see the latest BIS annual report page 104), suggested the funding shortage had declined by at least half compared to before the 2008 crisis. More recently. the dependence on cross currency funding has gone up again, with the decline in US money funding. (DB’s Bill Prophet showed EUR region CDs of 7 of the 10 largest US money funds fell by over $70bn from May through September). Given this collapse, it is likely that European banks that do successfully sell USD assets, will try maintain the corresponding USD liability to mitigate against USD term funding that may not be rolled in the future. If a European bank sells a USD asset, it probably reduces the European Bank shortage of USDs by the sales amount. A smaller ‘USD shortage’, at the margin reduces the risk of a short USD squeeze of the sort seen in 2008, and to that extent is a minor USD negative, and EUR positive. It also fits with the EUR cross currency basis swaps coming in slightly of late, although this almost certainly has more to do with global risk appetite. This marginal USD negative, EUR positive impact, should not however be confused with a foreign exchange transaction whereby USD’s are converted into EUR.

    Kokkuvõtte ja järelduse teeb ZH ise omal tavalisel väga karusel moel:
    In other words, an internal bank run has somehow been interpreted to be stock positive... And there is your explanation for not only the paradoxical surge in the EURUSD and S&P, but why the correlation between the EURUSD and the Bund-France spread has completely broken down. Expect all of this to promptly, and very violently, correct once the market understands what an idiot it has been in the past two weeks.
  • Saksamaa rahandusminister Schaeuble on kommentaare jagamas: ta on jätkuvalt ühiste Euroopa võlakirjade vastu ja ütles, et eesoleval Euroopa tippkohtumisel ei pakuta võlakriisile lõplikku lahendust. Euro jõudis täna uude nelja nädala tippu $1,3914 tasemel, kuid on sattunud surve alla ja kaupleb 0,15% miinuspoolel $1,3860 juures.
  • Mõned senised tulemuste raporteerijad täna
    Citigroup prelim $0.84 ex-items, vs $0.81 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $20.83 bln vs $19.00 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Wells Fargo prelim $0.72 vs $0.73 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.6 bln vs $20.34 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Halliburton reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.94 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.92; revenues rose 40.4% year/year to $6.55 bln vs the $6.38 bln consensus.
  • Tehniliselt vaadatuna on EURUSD jõudnud tõusva trendikanali alumisse äärde, kaubeldes 0,75% miinuspoolel.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: C +1.1%.

    M&A news: ANDS +253.8% (Anadys Pharma agrees to be acquired by Roche for $3.70 per share), EP +27.6% and KMP +2.1% (Kinder Morgan and El Paso announced a definitive agreement whereby KMI will acquire all of the outstanding shares of EP), BEXP +19.1% (Brigham Exploration to be acquired by Statoil (STO) for $36.50/share in cash), SNDA +15% (discloses non-binding proposal from Chairman to acquire all of the outstanding ordinary shares for $41.35 per American Depositary Share, VTRO (halted, Inuvo announces plans to acquire Vertro; Vertro will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Inuvo in a tax-free exchange of shares at an exchange ratio of 1.546 shares of Inuvo common stock per each share of Vertro common stock).

    A few oil/gas related names boosted by EP news: WMB +2.9%, WLL +1.4%.

    Other news: GAME +11.7% (higher following SNDA proposal news), EK +9.7% (IMAX confirms it will license exclusive rights to Kodak's next-generation laser projection technology), S +4.7% (issued statement on launch day ales of iPhone 4S and iPhone 4; its best ever day of sales in retail, web and telesales for a device family in Sprint history), APC +3.9% and BP +3.6% (Anadarko settles with BP), PRGO +2.2% and TEVA +1.8% (still checking), ADBE +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RIO +1.4% (Rio Tinto to sell aluminum assets, according to reports).

    Analyst comments: CAT +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), AV +0.7% (thinly traded, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).
  • October Empire Manufacturing -8.5 vs -4.0 Briefing.com consensus; September -8.82
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ARCO -9.7%, (also announces launch of secondary offering of Class A shares), WFC -3.3%, MDU -2.2% (light volume), HAS -0.9% (ticking lower).

    M&A news: EPB -4.4% (Kinder Morgan and El Paso announced a definitive agreement whereby KMI will acquire all of the outstanding shares of EP; total purchase price, including the assumption of debt outstanding at El Paso and including the debt outstanding at EPB is ~$38 bln) STO -1.4% (Brigham Exploration to be acquired by Statoil for $36.50/share in cash).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -5.8%, DB -2%, UBS -1.9%, AEG -1.4%.

    A few solar names are ticking lower following CSIQ guidance: YGE -2.3%, JKS -2.0%.

    Other news: CSIQ -8.2% (reaffirms Q3 shipment guidance, lowers Q3 gross margin guidance), BHP -1.2% (BHP Billiton and Ferrous Resources in M&A discussions, but near-term deal for BHP to buy company unlikely, according to report out over the weekend).

    Analyst comments: NAV -2.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), IPG -2.2% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), AGNC -0.5% (American Capital downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities).
  • Täna on analüütikute kriitika alla sattunud LED aktsiad nagu Veeco Instruments (VECO) ja Cree (CREE).

    Morgan Stanley on lisanud CREE oma RTI nimekirja öeldes, et nende prognooside kohaselt peaks aktsia lähima 15 päeva jooksul kukkuma. Nende lühiajaline negatiivne vaade on eelkõige tingitud käesolevast kvartalist, sest analüütikud usuvad, et firma teatab oodatust nõrgemast prognoosist. Pikaajalises perspektiivis on Morgan Stanley endiselt firma suhtes positiivsed ning kinnitavad oma Osta reitingut.

    This is because of an earnings release. We expect Cree will provide disappointing guidance for the December quarter when they report earnings, scheduled for Tuesday October 18 because consensus forecasts likely do not reflect the full ongoing operating expenses associated with the Ruud acquisition announced on August 17. Investors already seem unsure of the acquisition and higher-than-expected opex will likely be an incremental negative. We remain positive on the long-term outlook for Cree shares and are Overweight the stock.

    Canaccord analüüsimaja annab VECO-le Müü soovituse koos $ 18 hinnasihiga.

    While VECO shares have already pulled back materially over the past few months, we still see further downside from current levels given our belief that market expectations are still too high for the global MOCVD market, resulting in potential downward revisions and negative momentum for the stock.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et vaatamata aktsiahinna langusele on seal endiselt kukkumisruumi, kuna konsenuse ootused on endiselt liiga globaalse MOCVD turu osas.

    Negatiivne on ka Deutsche Bank, kes kärbib VECO hinnasihti $ 35 pealt $ 25 peale.

    LED Lighting Gaining Momentum; MOCVD Weakness Continues
    Following recent checks, we are reducing our estimates on VECO and AIXG. CREE is somewhat better positioned compared to LED equipment companies although acknowledge limited near term catalysts with potential risk around Q3 earnings.

    DB analüütikud möönavad, et CREE on mõnevõrra paremas seisus kui VECO või AIXG, aga eelistavad samuti ära oodata kolmanda kvartali tulemused.

    CREE kaupleb eelturul 3,8% miinuspoolel, $ 28,60 kandis.

  • tööstustoodanguga on nii ja naa

    WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. industrial production rose 0.2 percent in September, in line with expectations, as a gain in manufacturing offset a drop in utility output, a Federal Reserve report showed on Monday.
    September's industrial output gain followed an downwardly revised reading showing flat output in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent gain in September.
    Utility output fell 1.8 percent in September after dropping 2.9 percent in August following a July heat wave.
    But manufacturing production rose 0.4 percent, with consumer durables rising 0.9 percent as production rose for automotive products and home electronics. This followed a downwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in August factory output.
    Mining output rose 0.8 percent, matching the gain posted in August.
    Capacity utilization, which gauges firms' performance relative to their full potential, edged up to 77.4 percent in September, from a downwardly revised August reading of 77.3 percent
  • S&P on pannud välja prääniku aga kui lähtuda siin mõne päeva tagusest FT artiklist, siis ilma täiendavate kärpemeetmeteta jääb see hispaanlastele tõenäoliselt kättesaamatuks

    S&P could revise the outlook on Spain and Barcelona to stable if government meets 2011 and 2012 budgetary targets
  • Green Mtn Coffee drops on volume; David Einhorn, speaking at the Value Investor Conf, pointed out his bearish position on the stock
  • CROX andis kasumihoiatuse:
    Crocs sees Q3 $0.31-0.33 vs $0.40 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $273-275 mln vs $280.42 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Crocs believes Q4 revenue will grow in the low teen range, vs consensus growth expectations of +23%

    Aktsia kaupleb järelturul 38% miinuspoolel, $ 16,60 kandis
  • nagu üks tore pealkiri yahoo kommentaariumis ütleb, Crox = clown shoes for idiots

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