Börsipäev 24. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 24. jaanuar

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  • Mitmel pool Euroopas avalikustatakse täna PMI indekseid, mis saavad üldse tänavu makro poolel olema suhteliselt olulised indikaatorid sellest, kuidas regiooni majandused suudavad toime tulla kärpeplaanide all, seda eriti aasta teises pooles, kus paljud loodavad vähe helgemat pilti võrreldes esimese kahe kvartaliga. Prantsusmaa on teinud juba otsa lahti, kui jaanuari töötleva tööstuse PMI tuli veidi alla ootuste, alanedes detsembri 48,9 punkti pealt 48,5 punktile (konsensus lootis näha paranemise jätkumist 49,0 punktile). Samas teenindussektoris on aktiivsus kasvanud ning PMI indeks tõusnud jaanuaris 50,4 punktilt 51,7 punktile (konsensus 50,3 punkti).

    Kell 11.00 raporteeritakse eurotsooni PMI indeksid ning lisaks kuuleme, kuidas muutusid novembris eurotsooni tehaste tellimused. USA poolel avalikustatakse kell 17.00 Richmondi Fedi jaanuari küsitlus. Lisaks peaks IMF täna avaldama globaalse majanduse väljavaate raporti ning president Obama peab Kongressi ees oma igaaastase kõne.

    Majandustulemustega tulevad enne turgu muuhulgas AK Steel, Baker Hughes, Dupont, EMC, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon. Pärast turgu aga AMD, Apple, Yahoo!.
  • Vastupidiselt Prantsusmaale on aktiivsus Saksamaa töötlevas tööstuses jaanuaris jõusalt paranenud, kui selle kuu PMI indeks kerkis detsembri 48,4 punktilt 50,9 punktile (oodati 49,0). Sama trend oli ka teenindussektoris, kus jaanuari PMI kerkis 52,4 punktilt 54,5 punktile (oodati 52,6 punkti).
  • Ka eurotsooni PMId olid jaanuaris arvatust paremad. Töötleva tööstuse oma oodatud 47,2 punkti asemel 48,7 ja teenindussektori oma oodatud 49,0 punkti asemel 50,5. EUR/USD on saanud sellest pisut tuge (+0,25%) ning USA futuurid eelturu miinust natuke vähendanud (ES hetkel -0,2%).
    Töötleva tööstuse PMI

    Teenindussektori PMI
  • Hispaania tänase oksjoni tulemused:

    Müüdi 1,4 miljardi euro eest 3-kuulisi võlakirju, nõudluse-pakkumise suhe 4,3 vs 2,86 eelmisel oksjonil ja tulusus langes 1,735% pealt 1,285% peale.

    Lisaks müüdi 1,11 miljardi euro eest 6-kuulist võlga, nõudluse-pakkumise suhe 6,9 vs 4,06 eelmisel oksjonil ja tulusus langes 2,435% pealt 1,847% peale.
  • Portugali võla kindlustamise hind on teinud uue tipu: 5-aastase CDS jõudis täna 12,7% peale.
    LONDON (Dow Jones)--The cost of insuring Portugal's debt against default was at record highs Tuesday as its bond yields remained at elevated levels amid concerns that a possible second bailout for the country in 2013 would include a Greek-model haircut for private-sector bondholders.

    Worries have mounted among experts that Portugal won't be able to return to markets for funding next year, forcing it to request a second bailout package

    Portugal's five-year credit default swap--a derivative that functions like a default insurance contract for debt--pushed above its record closing level in the continuation of the trend that started last week after the Standard and Poor's Corp. downgrade to "junk" status
  • Eurotsooni tehaste tellimused näitasid novembris -2,7%list langust võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga ning see vastas konsensuse ootustele.
  • Credit Suisse tõstis hiljuti oma S&P500 hinnasihti $ 1340 pealt $ 1400 peale ja Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda täpsemalt ka nende põhjendusi ja siin väike valik neist:
    1. US macro momentum has continued to surprise and the breadth of the economic recovery has been impressive.
    2. Euro-area. The ECB’s three-year LTRO is a potential game changer. It’s printing money; could be exceptionally large; could drive the euro to levels required to stop the recession (c€/$ 1.10); is driving the three-year bond yield to levels consistent with temporary debt sustainability in Italy and Spain; and, critically, it is a form of debt mutualisation (as the haircuts applied to collateral are too low), yet one that is less emotive for the German public than QE or the SMP. We think there are five elements to a resolution of the Euro crisis: growth, a ring-fence for the solvent, the solvency of the insolvent, a balanced current account in the periphery and the mutualisation of debt.
    3. China: a move to modest easing with inflation clearly falling. New loans rose in December and M2 growth has accelerated to 17.3% from a recent low of 12.9%.
  • MCD taas üle ootuste paremate tulemustega:
    McDonald's prelim $1.33 vs $1.30 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $6.82 bln vs $6.81 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • MCD - neist võib eelneva häppi peale väheks jääda

    aga ei, paistab et mitte.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DHT +18.7%, PLCM +14%, SNV +7.4% (ticking higher), WDC +5.2% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham), VMW +4.7%, DGX +4.3% (ticking higher), COH +3.4%, EMC +3%, TXN +0.8%.

    Other news: ACUR +7.5% (informed by Pfizer that OXECTA Tablets CII is now commercially available), BAX +2.3% (to initiate second Phase III trial studying GAMMAGARD LIQUID), PEET +0.3% (S.A.C. Capital discloses 5.7% stake in 13G filing), .

    Analyst comments: KORS +1.2% (initiated with a Outperform at Robert W. Baird, Overweight at Morgan Stanley, Overweight at Piper Jaffray, Buy at Jefferies, Outperform at Wedbush), LRCX +0.9% (ticking higher, tgt raised to $64 from $48 at Citigroup), BBBY +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ZNGA +0.8% (initiated with a Outperform at Robert W. Baird), MRK +0.7% (initiated with a Buy at ISI Group).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EAT -8%, JJSF -7.8%, ZION -7.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), IGT -7.4% (light volume), BTU -4.8%, STM -4.4%, KSU -4.1%, CSX -3.7% (also Names New Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer), SI -3.6%, BHI -3.2%, KMB -2.1%, HOG -2.1%, VZ -2%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -6.4%, IRE -6.1%, ING -3.4%, BCS -3%, BAC -2.1%, CS -1.9%, C -1.4%.

    Other news: IDCC -15.4% (confirms conclusion of Strategic Alternatives Review Process; Board affirms and expands business strategy to include patent sales and licensing partnerships), CTIC -5.5% (still checking), ONCY -5.4% (announces Cdn$15 million bought deal financing), PNNT -4.9% (announced that it plans to make a public offering of 9 mln shares of its common stock), DEPO -3.8% (Receives Notice of Paragraph IV Certification against patents for Gralise), GEL -3.5% (announces 2.25 mln common unit secondary offering by selling unitholders), MSO -3.5% (M is alleging MSO breached contract, according to reports), ADC -3.3% (announces public offering of 1,000,000 shares of common stock), TI -3.1% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: NOK -7.9% (Hearing downgraded at Danske Bank), DB -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), POT -1.9% (Potash downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), PSO -1.6% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), ABX -0.9% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Markets).
  • Baltic Dry Index on viimase kuuga teinud korraliku korrektsiooni alla, kaubeldes üle 50% madalamal detsembri keskpaiga tasemest.
  • The Foundation is Weakening
    James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jan 24, 2012 | 8:25 AM

    "The loftier the building, the deeper must the foundation be laid." --Thomas Kempis

    The indices have been holding up extremely well but the foundation is weak, momentum is slowing and the danger of a pullback is growing. Many market players were anticipating a "sell the news" reaction as earnings reports rolled in, but they were surprised when old, slow-growth technology names like Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM) suddenly turned into momentum stocks.

    There has been an unusually high number of warnings and lowered outlooks coming into the quarter, yet we have been running straight up since Dec. 19. The combination of high expectations, overbought technicals and tepid earnings sounds like a perfect recipe for selling, but it just hasn't happened yet. In fact, the obviousness of the setup has probably helped to produce a bit of a short squeeze as the bears have been overly anticipatory in looking for weakness.

    As I've written quite often, one of the tendencies of the market since the low in March 2009 is to become overbought on low volume. We have seen dozens of these V-shaped moves higher in the face of a long list of negatives. If you have been too quick to anticipate a market rollover, you have been burned time and again.

    The big question is whether the market players are going to be more aggressive as earnings reports come rolling in. Tonight we have the report from Apple (AAPL), which is probably the most important stock in the market. Several analysts have upped their estimates in the last few days and the stock is hovering around its all-time high. Expectations are high, which means the risk of disappointment is high as well, but AAPL has a tendency to surpass even very high hopes.

    The most important thing to keep in mind as we navigate is that we are walking the high wire and it's a little wobbly. That doesn't mean we are going to suddenly fall. Markets at their high generally don't suddenly collapse. What happens is that upside progress becomes more difficult, we see a greater number of intraday reversals and there is a lack of leadership. As more folks recognize that stocks are slowing, profit-taking picks up and we have a correction.

    But what really determines whether a market correction takes hold is the dip-buyers. When the market goes straight up like this one has the past month, it creates a big supply of underinvested bulls anxious to buy pullbacks. They don't like to chase strength, which leaves them sitting on the sidelines to a great degree, but the more the market runs up without them the more inclined they are to buy weakness.

    Dip-buying always sounds like a great idea when the market is trending to the upside, but dip-buyers often lose their nerve quickly when faced with real weakness. It is when the dip-buyers are no longer as confident when a significant correction sets in.

    I don't want to be overly bearish as the market has still not done anything wrong, but limited upside, slowing momentum and intraday reversals are signals that he market is slowing. I want to be mentally prepared to deal with a more challenging environment.

    We have softness this morning on chatter about Greece's continuing problems, but I suspect that market players are aware of the extended technical conditions and are looking harder for excuses to sell. Stay quick and nimble. We may be able to hold up in front of AAPL's big report tonight but the foundation is weakening.
  • Umbes 20 minutit tagasi ütles biotehnoloogiaguru Adam Feuerstein, et emailide ja twitteri postituste aktiivsuse põhjal otsustades saab täna seni suhteliselt tundmatust biotehnoloogia aktsiast (C hepatiit ravim) BLRX hype aktsia. Sel hetkel kauples aktsia $ 3,80 juures (+15%) ja nüüd on aktsia juba 31% üleval kaubeldes $ 4,30 kandis.
    Adam Feuerstein: $BLRX judging by my email & twitter stream, this unknown oral hep c stock will be momo trade of the day. Have fun!
  • Headlines crossing that S&P may downgrade Greece to 'Selective Default'
  • Mis see selective default tähendab - midagi lähedast orderly default-ile?
  • Selective default peaks olema kõige pehmem vorm ehk osad kreeditorid rullivad võlga üle ja võtavad vastu haircuti, vältides sellega suuremaid kahjumeid tulevikus. Orderly default aga peaks olema juba laiahaardelisem ehk kontrollitud pankrot
  • Adam Feuerstein on oma guru tiitli auga välja teeninud, sest BLRX kaupleb hetkel 72% plusspoolel, $ 5,62 juures.
  • IMFi värsked prognoosid:

    World Output lowered to 3.3% in 2012 (4.0% in Sept); 2013 lowered to 3.9% (4.5% in Sept)... U.S. lowered to 1.2% in 2012 (1.9% in Sept); 2013 lowered to 1.9% (2.4% Sept)... Euro Area lowered to -0.5% in 2012 (1.1% in Sept); 2013 0.8% (1.5% in Sept)... For 2012 Germany lowered to 0.3% from 1.3% in 2012... Italy lowered to -2.2% from +0.3%... France lowered to 0.2% from +1.4%... Spain lowered to -1.7% from +1.1%... U.K. lowered to 0.6% in 2012 (+1.6% in Sept); 2013 lowered to 2.0% from 2.4%... China lowered to 8.2% in 2012 (9.0% in Sept); 2013 lowered to 8.8% (9.5% 2013).
  • Tundub, et selective default eksisteerib ainult S&P žargoonis ja tähendab seda, et osa maksti tagasi aga natuke jäi maksmata. Tänasel kujul siis seda, et osad olid nõus, et ei maksta ning osad ei olnud nõus. Igasugused orderly, voluntary ja disorderly defaultid on poliitikute ja ajakirjanike poolt välja mõeldud, et mööda hiilida credit evendist.

    Iseenesest saab muidugi põnev olema, millal peaks CDS päästik valla pääsema. Kas siis kui keegi "D" reitingu annab? Mis saab siis kui üks annab ja teised ei anna? Mis saab siis kui "event" toimub, aga selle üle otsustav clearing house seda ei arvesta?

    Tundub, et inseneridel on siin tööd ja turgu, et CDS default swappidega turule tulla.
  • Nelli Janson
    Adam Feuerstein on oma guru tiitli auga välja teeninud, sest BLRX kaupleb hetkel 72% plusspoolel, $ 5,62 juures.

    BLRX +100% ($ 6,60)
  • Nelli Janson
    Adam Feuerstein on oma guru tiitli auga välja teeninud, sest BLRX kaupleb hetkel 72% plusspoolel, $ 5,62 juures.

    Self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • Bank of America: Bloomberg TV reporting that sources are saying bankers could see a 25% cut in compensation
  • Merkel on siis kokku monteerinud toreda käru, kus kõigepealt sunniti osalema ja nüüd sunnitakse suuremat kaotust kandma. PSI läbirääkimistel investorite poolel olnud ainus kreeklane, kes on Küprose keskpanga president, oli korduvalt toonitanud, et Merkeli soov erainvestorid kannaksid kahju on teinud Eurotsooni usaldusväärsusele äärmise karuteene. Mida edasi, seda enam hullemaks läheb. Ma ei usu, et Kreeka jääb ainsaks juhtumiks. See ei pea kindlalt juhtuma Itaalia, Portugali või Iirima puhul, aga järgmise kriisi ajal tehakse selline lüke kindlasti uuesti.

    Kui EU rahandusministrid leidsid, et 4% on palju ja peab olema 3,5%, siis mida PSI läbirääkijad seni novembrist jaanuarini pingutasid? Jätnuks kohe kõik ministrite otsustada.
  • BLRXi on parem mitte puutuda, see on õhupall mis peatselt lõhkeb. Seal on kokku sattunud Hep C haip ja vähekaubeldav aktsia. Ega Genoscience's kah ole täiesti eluvõõrad tüübid, et paljutõotava Hep C projekti täiesti niisama ära müüvad.
    Ja AF ei olnud sugugi esimene kes BLRX uudise avaldas. Tõsi muidugi, et ta on üks enim jälgitavaid biotehikommentaatoreid, seega on tema tviitidel natuke suurem mõju.
  • CME Group announced a record in daily trading volume for its benchmark Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract
  • Apple toetamas järelturul futuure
    Apple prelim $13.87 vs $10.08 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $46.33 bln vs $39.04 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Apple sees Q2 EPS of ~$8.50 vs $8.00 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs ~$32.5 bln vs $31.94 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate (420.41 -7.00)

    Apple reports 37.4 mln iPhones sold in Q1 vs Street est of ~30 mln; 15.43 mln iPads sold in Q1 vs Street est of ~14 mln; Q1 gross margins of 44.7% vs Street est of 40.7% and 40% guidance. "Apple's momentum is incredibly strong, and we have some amazing new products in the pipeline... We are very happy to have generated over $17.5 bln in cash flow from operations during the December quarte
  • AAPL-i tugevate tulemuste peale järelturul ülespoole kauplemas ka SNDK (+2,2%), BRCM (+5,9%) SWKS (+5,6%), CRUS (+7,5%) ja TQNT (+6,9%).
    AAPL aktsia hakkab uuesti kauplema meie aja järgi 23.50.

  • Apple'i vaba raha ning realiseeritavate väärtpaberite maht kasvas kvartaliga 81,5 miljardi dollari pealt 97,6 miljardile. Kui valuatsioonis seda arvestada, siis on bilansis aktsia kohta 103,7 USD raha ja likvideeritavaid väärtpabreid ehk ex-cash 2012 (sept) P/E 9x (konsensuse EPS enne tulemusi 34,8 USD).

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