Carmen Kassi teate, aga Doug Kass'i?
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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See mees on karude karu,
Seabreeze Partners riskifondi juht,
sageli Barronsi poolt tsiteeritud,
tehnikaaktsiates lühike juba kaks aastat,
märtsi alguses otsustas pikaks minna,
loomulikult ei ennusta ta kiiret tõusu
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/herbonthestreet/1326979.html
ja tema kiri klientidele
Fear is a necessary ingredient to a bottom and a necessary catalyst to a market rally. Fear abounds, in some measure, abetted by concerns that Greenspan doesn't understand the gravity of the economic downturn. I think that view is B.S. He is the maestro, and has gracefully maneuvered the economy down to a manageable (and inflation-free) level, and has also gracefully eradicated speculation (a concern that I have held for some time).
Stocks are starting to ignore poor earnings announcements, e.g., AMCC (AMCC:Nasdaq - news) missed big and the stock rallied. This means that the market has sufficiently discounted the eroding fundamentals. Same goes for GLW (GLW:Nasdaq - news) (layoffs announced? stock rises by 10%) and JDSU (JDSU:Nasdaq - news) (layoffs).
Wall Street analysts have given up hope. Tech stocks, which represented 29% of the S&P a year ago, now stand at 18%? 'Oops I did it again' ... the lowering of ratings on brokerage stocks by two major firms this week as ANALysts wake up to tepid trading volume and absence of underwritings ... where have these lagging indicators (analysts) been? The stocks had dropped by almost 50%, and now they recommend sell? ... MORONS. [Did I say Doug was opinionated?!]
Increased talk of a 1500 Nasdaq by previously bullish strategists and observers.
Increased queries into my partnership, which is short oriented...I have been inundated with interest.
Low volume sell off over the last five days, a sign that selling is drying up.
The broader market started to underperform the OTC, as investors irrationally sell what they can and what is liquid.
I hope this is helpful, remember I have been bearish as hell for two years. That said, I don't expect a spike up, just an orderly advance from depressed levels.
PS! Srry, et Carmen Kassist juttu ei olnud! -
Ka Doug arvab siis US analüütikutest nagu mina ühes teise foorumis " .. Seega - analüütikud oleks pidanud seda olukorda ette nägema.Pärast aktsiate langust targeteid alandades ja downgrade'des käituvad nad minu arvates nagu kamp koiotte, kes kõrbes klähvivad auto peale mis 5 min. tagasi mööda sõitis. ..." :-) Aga üldiselt väga mõistlik jutt.
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peale keskmisest vulgaarsema suhtimise hetkel toimuvasse, ning väikese eneseupitamise, ei aidanud mr. kass'i kommentaar investoreid just oluliselt edasi oma otsustes. sellise arvamuse lugemine on investorile suhteliselt väärtusetu, igast suuremast equity desk'st võiks analoogset juttu saada tundide kaupa, valige ise millise maja silt teile tänaval rohkem meeldib ja kus teid jutule võetakse... :)
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karner,
sellise vahega, et Kassi jutt töötab juba rohkem kui kuu aega,
viimane ennustus oli peale Cisco megahoiatust üleeile, et see annab vaid värsketele pullidele soodsa võimaluse turule sisenemiseks:
Cisco 17.25>15.30>17.40
PS! Ta on väljavihastanud juba kõik TSCM kommentaatorid, kelle skeptilistele ennustustele seab omad optimismi vastu -
Graafik,
Mr. Kass on igati vajalik nähtus, seda ma ei püüagi vaidlustada. samas on tema kommentaaride/flash'de, stiilis: "olin 2a. lühike, nüüd keerasin ennast ümber", kasutegur keskmise investori jaoks suhteliselt madal . kogu argumentatsioon oma otsuste põhjendamisel on veidi "mahlakamalt" esitatud avalik informatsioon, easy reading; one man story jne. võiks selle kohta öelda.
vaadates fakte, märtsi alguses promotud kannakas ja tech's pikaks minek poleks vist siiani eriti edukaks osutunud. -
CSCO on muidugi endiselt l.-term investorite file'des hea ost, mida odavamalt seda parem. samas, ega see ka kellegile eriline uudis pole..:-)
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Doug Kass'i konspekt Greenspan'i eilsest kõnest:
1. Tarbimine on nõrk, kuid mitte lootusetult
2. Firmade kasumimarginaalid ja rahavood on olnud tugeva surve all
3. Kütusehindadest põhjustatud inflatsioon on tõenäoliselt tipus
4. Tööhõive vähenemine paneb piiri palkade kasvule
5. Hinnad kasvavad, kuid vaoshoitult -
Kassi värske üllitis:
Market Recovery Signals?
From my vantage point, there are several factors that most be resolved for the market to resume it's ascent. They are:
1. A stablization and decline in energy prices. By contrast, yesterday, natural gas prices and gains in crude (+71 cents to $29.04) and heating oil prices (+$1.62 to 78 cents)surged. A continued rise in energy prices will serve as a tax on the consumer. I am not clear as to whether or when Energy prices will moderate.
2. The technology fog (orders, and backlogs) must clear. This leading group got a punch to the groin on Friday morning when Juniper reported a large miss against expectations. I feel strongly that time will heal this sector.
3. General Electric's planned acquisition of Honeywell International -which is being delayed due to moves by Europe's antitrust enforcers - must be completed. It is my view that this deal will likely be approved shortly. Upon completion, I expect that AOL Time Warner replaces Honeywell in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, making longs (like El Capital Cramer) jubilant. I will then short more AOL.
4. Another one or two cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This is a necessary reagent to insure an economic recovery. Additional rate cuts are forthcoming.
5. More skepticism, as expressed by Investors Intelligence readings, etc. The recent decline in the broad market averages, and in Tech stocks should serve to increase levels of Bearishness, and reduce levels of Bullishness.
6. The underwriting cycle must improve. Improving capital markets will aid the important Financial sector (I just recommended the purchase of brokerages late yesterday). There are already signs that this is ocurring. For example, this morning the Kraft IPO was raised in price.
I remain optimistic that most of the factors listed above will resolve themselves positively. I am less certain of the timing. -
TEN POSITIVE SIGNS
1. General Electric leading the market.
2. Breadth improving.
3. Financials good across-the-board.
4. Possible sentiment extreme as measured by negativity in general, and panic in the high yield bond market.
5. Tech rallying despite vague rumors of an IBM eps shortfall, and continued negative news, especially in semi sector.
6. Oil prices falling.
7. AOL and EBAY leading Internet sector. (As Jay mentioned, EBAY breaking out of trading range).
8. Approaching quarter-end. Many stocks indiscriminately sold so as to show in portfolio at 6/30/01.
9. Long Bond yields stable.
10. No one believes the Market CAN rally -
Date Stock Action Recommended Base Price Recent Price Percent Change Recomendation Venue 6/11/01 Merrill Lynch* (MER:NYSE - news - commentary) Buy $63 $67 6% TheStreet.com 6/11/01 Goldman Sachs* (GS:NYSE - news - commentary) Buy 92 92 0 TheStreet.com 6/11/01 Morgan Stanley* (MWD:NYSE - news - commentary) Buy 62 65 5 TheStreet.com 5/28/01 AOL* (AOL:NYSE - news - commentary) Short 53 53 0 Barron's 4/16/01 Harley-Davidson* (HDI:NYSE - news - commentary) Short 42 48 (14) Barron's ** -
Outlandish Prediction #1. At some point tomorrow, the NASDAQ will advance by more than eight percent!
Outlandish Prediction #2. Today's intraday lows (DJIA, NASDAQ,S&P) will not be penetrated for the balance of the third quarter of this year (and maybe not for the rest of 2001)!
Outlandish Prediction #3. Microsoft becomes a must own stock based on today's pronouncement. Mr. Softee trades at $80/share before $65!
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Võtame nüüd veidi tagasi ja vaatame vanad asjad uuesti üle:
TEN POSITIVE SIGNS
1. General Electric leading the market.
Leading down?
2. Breadth improving.
Hetkel pigem vastupidi.
3. Financials good across-the-board.
Hakkab minu meelest just pehmeks keerama.
4. Possible sentiment extreme as measured by negativity in general, and panic in the high yield bond market.
Vaata hiljutist VIX'i või Bulls versus bears lugemeid -pigem vastupidises faasis.
5. Tech rallying despite vague rumors of an IBM eps shortfall, and continued negative news, especially in semi sector.
See on pöördunud - SOX on kahtlases seisus, IBM'st rääkimata.
6. Oil prices falling.
OK.
7. AOL and EBAY leading Internet sector. (As Jay mentioned, EBAY breaking out of trading range).
Nende ralli näitab väsimuse märke.
8. Approaching quarter-end. Many stocks indiscriminately sold so as to show in portfolio at 6/30/01.
Mingil määral OK, mõnede aktsiate puhul siiski oli ka üritus hinda ülespoole ajada.
9. Long Bond yields stable.
Aga vales kohas - liiga kõrgel!?
10. No one believes the Market CAN rally
Praegu usuvad paljud liiga kaljukindlalt suverallit! Samas äkki saamegi tänase päeva jooksul selle ära nähtud?
Jääksin oma suvise NAZ 1700-1800 põhja prognoosi juurde. -
kristjan, kui see sulle ameerika paduoptimistide taustal mingit lohutust pakub, siis ma ühinen sinu arvamusega...
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Ega mind pole vaja lohutada, mul said oma QQQ putid kenasti eile kinni. Aga trigger-happy finger higistab praegu päästikul ja loodab korralikku rallit (ja shortimisvõimalust) näha saada... :-)
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Ole ahne kui teised on kartlikud ja kartlik kui teised on ahned.
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QQQ jõudis 02 juulist kukkuda eilseks -6 punkti.
Samal ajal optsioonide Implied volatiilsus kasvas üle 10%
Put optsioonide hind hüppas nagu kurjast vaimust vaevatud.
Täna QQQ tõuseb ja volatiilsus langeb.
Nüüd vaja vaid oodata et QQQ tõuseb veel umbes 45 -ni.... Ja vola langeb.... siis korrata Put optsiooni ostmist ja peale QQQ langust ning vola tõusu müüki.
Raha tuleb turboga...
:)
...eh kui kõik alati nii täpselt käiks... -
Kassirojul 3'st 3 mööda nende "outlandish" ennustustega. Polnud seekord vanal õnne... 1700-1800 vahemik on käeulatuses ja minu arvates võib selektiivselt alustada pikaks minemist.
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Kassi pole viimasel nädalal RealMoney.com kommenteerima lastud ka.
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Tuleb nentida, et NAZ 1700-1800 põhja prognoos ei pidanud kohe kuidagi kodanike destruktiivsele tegevusel vastu. Meie oktoobri alguses tehtud Q3 ülevaate ja prognoos (mõõdukalt bullish e. "Idiotismist investeerimisel").
