lennundussektori tõus
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Kas US Airways (U) võib veel tuhast tõusta? Praegu on ta juba pikemat aega alla 5 taala rippunud, 11.09, mis teha.
Prohvetid, ennustage! -
ennustada ei tasu, tuleb pilk peale heita. kuid üks siin läks juba põhja. Sabena
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SASil ei pidavat ka eriti hästi minema...
Mis SwissAirist kuulda on? Kauaks neil raha jätkub? -
Ma arvan, et lennundussektoris leiab paremaid investeeringuid. Alles oli siin avalehel üks artikkel. Osta tasuks vast väiksemaid firmasid, kes suudavad raskel ajal turuosa võita.
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Väike spekulatsioon:
Reisilenundus on muutunud (vähemalt täna) natuke kõhedusttekitavaks. Kunagi ei tea, kas jõuad pärale või ei. Ehkki statistika näitab midagi muud, on inimestel siiski NY pilt silme ees.
Samas lennata on vaja, sest ega business ajamata saa jääda.
Äkki muutuvad atraktiivseks väikelennukite tootjad? Learjet, Bombardier, Cessna, Piper, Pilatus?
Kas mõni neist ka noteeritud on? -
jaa, mõttekäik on loogiline
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Parim investeering lennundussektorisse on kas Southwest (LUV) või Alaska (ALK). Alaska Air on ainuke suurematest firmadest, kes teenindab Alaska osariiki, kus NY sündmused eriti kedagi ei huvita-- lendamine on neile elustiil. Southwesti hinnapoliitika ja efektiivne kulumajandus teeb sektori üheks parima kasumimarginaaliga firmaks. Mõlemad firmad olid ainukesed, kes 3Q-s kasumisse tulid ja seda ka ilma valitsuse abirahadeta.
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"Väike" ülevaade USA lennufirmadest :)
American Airlines (AMR) Liquidation likelihood: 20% Sales: $20 billion Income : ($917 million) Cash: $69 million Daily losses: $10 million to $15 million Share price: $18.55 (down 53% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor : 85% Actual load factor for October: 59.6% Long-term debt: $4.7 billion
Analysis: As the world's largest airline, American qualifies for the biggest piece of the government bailout. Looks like it will need the help, with a tenuous cash position and up to $15 million in daily negative cash flow. Its size will probably prevent its demise, but it has jumbo-jet sized problems to fix.
United Airlines (UAL) , unit of UAL Corp. Liquidation likelihood: 30% Sales: $18 billion Income: ($1.9 billion) Cash: $2.7 billion Daily losses $15 million Share price: $11.02 (down 72% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 96% Actual load factor for October: 63.4% Long-term debt: NA
Analysis: After booting out its CEO, United brought in an outsider, Jack Creighton, to cut costs, mend fences with unions, boost revenue and get people flying again. That's after the company took its focus off customers and onto an ill-fated potential merger with US Airways. What is this guy, Superman?
Delta Airlines (DAL) Liquidation likelihood: 25% Sales: $15 billion Loss: ($464 million) Cash: $2.78 billion Daily losses: $8 million Share price: $25.69 (down 50% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 85% Actual load factor for October: 60.5% Long-term debt: $8.9 billion
Analysis: CEO Leo Mullin says now is the right time to scope out airline mergers, suggesting he may be looking for one. Delta's cash position is relatively strong and the airline is among the least unionized, allowing it to tackle its labor costs more quickly than others.
Northwest Airlines (NWAC) Liquidation likelihood: 20% Sales: $10.6 billion Income: ($276 million) Cash: $2.8 billion Daily losses: $6 million to $8 million Share price: $13.24 (down 56% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 90% Actual load factor for October: 66.3% Long-term debt: $4.9 billion
Analysis: With a near-monopoly at its Minneapolis hub and a strong cash position, Northwest should stay solidly independent. CEO Richard Anderson says Northwest will take scheduled delivery of new planes in 2002.
Continental Airlines (CAL) Liquidation likelihood: 20% Sales: $9.6 billion Income: $98 million Cash: $1.2 billion Daily losses: $4 million to $5 million Share price: $18.35 (down 64% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 77% Actual load factor for October: 65.6% (latest figures from first half of Oct.) Long-term debt: $4 billion
Analysis: One of only two airlines to make money over the last 12 months, Continental should come through it OK. It's got one of the best records for on-time arrivals and isn't too far away from its break-even load factor. It's encouraging that it won't use federal loan guarantees.
US Airways (U) Liquidation likelihood: 80% Sales: $9.4 billion Income: ($333 million) Cash: $1 billion Daily losses: $6 million Share price: $4.49 (down 89% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 88% Actual load factor for October: 62.4% Long-term debt: NA
Analysis: It was dealt a huge blow when regulators nixed its merger with United. Now US Airways has to figure out how to quickly cut costs (already among the highest in the industry) while downsizing itself to profitability. The clock is ticking.
Southwest (LUV) Liquidation likelihood: 0.5% Sales: $5.7 billion Income: $602 million Cash: $1.48 billion Daily losses: $1 million (latest figures from first half of October) Share price: $17.70 (down 22% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 65% Actual load factor for October: 63.7% Long-term debt: $751 million
Analysis: It's the Dell Computer of the airline industry: keeps costs (and frills) low while maintaining loyal customer base. Within two percentage points of its break-even load factor, it's the only major airline that will make money this year.
America West (AWA) Liquidation likelihood: 90% Sales: $2.2 billion Income: ($128 million) Cash: $144 million Daily losses: $1 million to $2 million Share price: $1.78 (down 86% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 88% Actual load factor for October: 68.2% Long-term debt: $352 million
Analysis: The days appear numbered for this airline, dubbed "America's worst" by Forbes. The company is in rough shape in terms of cash and load factor. And getting people to fly the airline won't be easy. Recall the child traveling alone on the airline this summer--America West misplaced her.
Alaska Airlines (ALK) Liquidation likelihood: 15% Sales: $2.2 billion Income: ($41 million) Cash: $667 million Daily losses: NA Share price: $26.45 (down 13% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 75% Actual load factor for October: 63.6% Long-term debt: $869 million
Analysis: Like Southwest, Alaska Airlines has lower costs than the bigs, enabling it to hit profitability even in tight times. The niched airline was ranked by Forbes as losing the least amount of luggage.
Sales and income (loss) figures are for last 12 months. Cash and debt are for most recent quarter. Fourth-quarter estimated load factors provided by Fitch. Shares prices are for Nov. 7 close. -
lennusektori tõus jääb vist pikemaks ajaks tulemata:)
siiski on southwesti ja alaska aktsiad kõige vähem miinuses kui kogu sektor vastavalt ca 2,5%&8% -
Mis ma ütlesin nädal tagasi - U viskas täna üle 22%! nädal tagasi oli 4,8, nüüd läheneb 7- USDile.
Ennustan, et U adekvaatne hind oleks kuskil 12,7 USD-i järgm nädalal l6puks ja 25 USDi jaanuari keskpaigaks.
CAL tegi ka kena 10% hüppe. -
Viimane Barrons kiidab 911-sündmuste valguses erareaktiivide tootjaid ja lennuaja edasimüüjaid. Nimetas järgmisi aktsiaid BBDB.TO TXT RTN GD
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Ise mängisin UAL peale - ka teine ilusti 7% kaupa päevas tõusnud...
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Pühade ajaks teevad lennufirmad meeletuid pakkumisi
idarannikult Las Vegasesse edasi-tagasi pilet 500USD +3ööd hotellis
Puerto Ricosse tasuta edasi-tagasipilet, vaja vaid hotellipakett osta jne.jne. -
UNITED AIRLINESI (UAL)-i mehhaanikud streigivad. Viimased pole palgakõrgendust saanud 94-st aastast saadik. Lisaks leiti UAL-i Airbus-i sabast ultraheli testiga väikseid defekte. See sunnib ka teisi lennufirmasid "sabaaluseid" kergitama (mis tähendab aga hulka $-eid). -2,5%
Uurijad ei ole siiani kinlaks teinud, mis põhjustas American-i (AMR) lennuki allakukkumise New Yorkis (võib-olla oli viga lennuki sabas?). Kuid vastupidiselt UAL-le hoolitseb AMR oma mehhaanikute eest- parimatele anti auhinnad.
US Airwaysi (U) checkpointide turvamehed olid koolitamata (FAA ametnikud käisid kontrollimas). U -3,7%. Osamal kodutöö tegemata, oleks võinud ju ära kasutada :-) -
Ja ongi lennunduse aktsiad endistes kõrgustes (peale 11.09.2001):
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Lufthansa- tõeline saurus, kuid hetkel põleb heleda leegiga. Raha u. 4 miljardit, kuid väheneb tempoga 720 miljonit kuus. Prognoosid lennunduses(mitte LH enda oma) ei oota enne juulikuud erilisi märke liikluse avamisest. Asi on s*tt, kuid see pidavat olema tuleviku väetis. Aktsia on peksa saanud viimased paar aastat isa ja ema eest. Kui asi ei parane, küsivad riigi abi. Tõenäoliselt too big to fail, sellest a huvi LH vastu.
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Lufthansa samas väheseid lennufirmasid, kes kogu kriisi ajal on hoidnud võimalikult palju lende töös, sh. Frankfurt-Tallinn.
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Äriidee neile kes hetkel töötud.
Registreerige lennufirma, võtke Boeingult 737 MAXid ja hakake lende müüma. Hetkel on kõik nii kuhugi minemas, et võimalik marsruut võiks olla kolme tunnine tiir õhus ja siis jälle lähtekohta maandumine. Reisibürood võiksid müüa ka hotelli ja autorendi võimalust. Paljud ostaksid, saaksid paar päeva sisustatud, lennukiga lennatud, kodust eemal hotellis oldud.
Ma kujutan ette ,et see töötaks ka mujal kui Eestis. Küsige Kredeksilt stardiraha, valitsuselt toetust jne.
Ja loomulikult reklaamid, kuldkaardid, laenud, et pileteid osta jne. -
Draax
Lufthansa samas väheseid lennufirmasid, kes kogu kriisi ajal on hoidnud võimalikult palju lende töös, sh. Frankfurt-Tallinn.
See Ülemiste ots on piisk meres, 95% liinidest on maas, 300 lennukist 256 pargitud. Aga jah, räägivad riigipangaga läbi osaluse/laenude üle, Germanwingsiga teevad lõpu. -
Kukkumine nüüdseks 3-4 korda tavapärasest tasemest, alles on jäänud sisuliselt vaid Hiina ja USA siselennud+kaubalennud.
Milline on allesjäänud lendude täituvus? Kas madalam maht võib hakata mõju avaldama lennujaamatasudele?
Lennujaamadel on ilmselt sobiv aeg investeeringuid ja ehitustöid teha. -
LH puhul probleem veel selles, et enamus cashist on ettemaksed. Firma soovib Brüsselist erandit, et ettemaksete eest tohiksid anda klientidele ärajäänud lendude eest vautšereid tulevikus toimuvale lennule, mitte raha tagasi. EU ametnikud pole veel otsust teinud.
Ryanair ja teised odavlendajad on kettas, et tehakse eeliseid "suurtele". Viimased lendavad tähtsamates jaamades ja riikidele on see prioriteet, avamaks eelisjärjekorras liiklust just neis jaamades. Samuti subsideerimise teema- suured tegijad saavad lennata riigi toel esialgu pooltühja lennukiga, kuid kahjumit ei saa. Veel üks põhjus eelistada hetkel hiidusid. -
Wizz Air plaanib maist lendamist alustada.
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Kas lennufirmade riigiabi tähendab tagastamatut toetust või osaluse soetust? Esimesel juhul siis aktsia hind pigem tõuseb (likviidsusriski vähenemine) ja teisel juhul langeb (lahjenemine)?
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lufthansa-aid/lufthansa-aims-to-finalise-10-billion-euro-rescue-package-next-week-sources-idUSKCN2252Y6
Aktsia viimaste aasta(kümne)te põhjades. Käed sügelevad, kuid kukkuv nuga. Kas kellegil kogemust. kuidas sellised viimase hetke riigiabi paketid ajalooliselt aktsiahinda mõjutavad, ons mõtet põrkele mängida? -
siim susi
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lufthansa-aid/lufthansa-aims-to-finalise-10-billion-euro-rescue-package-next-week-sources-idUSKCN2252Y6
Aktsia viimaste aasta(kümne)te põhjades. Käed sügelevad, kuid kukkuv nuga. Kas kellegil kogemust. kuidas sellised viimase hetke riigiabi paketid ajalooliselt aktsiahinda mõjutavad, ons mõtet põrkele mängida?
Ahh- no guts, no glory, VÄGA väike tükk 7.10€ juures. Kui langeb, võtan veel. Naisele ei julge öeldagi, arvab et peast põrunud. Vähendavad lennukiparki, koondamised, tume tulevik, majad soovitavad müüa... ühesõnaga täiskomplekt. -
Äkki siis juba 'iShares STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF (DE)' üksikaktsia asemel?
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Isegi kui travel varsti teosammul käima lükkab, siis leisure`ga on mõneks ajaks aamen. Mängin sellele, et kotti ei lasta, see oleks ikka korralik pidur sakslaste endi taastumisele. Kõigepealt lastakse regionalid lendama. Suuri jet`e ongi juba lennukipargist maha võetud- mitu A380 ja 747-t.
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siim susi
siim susi
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lufthansa-aid/lufthansa-aims-to-finalise-10-billion-euro-rescue-package-next-week-sources-idUSKCN2252Y6
Aktsia viimaste aasta(kümne)te põhjades. Käed sügelevad, kuid kukkuv nuga. Kas kellegil kogemust. kuidas sellised viimase hetke riigiabi paketid ajalooliselt aktsiahinda mõjutavad, ons mõtet põrkele mängida?
Ahh- no guts, no glory, VÄGA väike tükk 7.10€ juures. Kui langeb, võtan veel. Naisele ei julge öeldagi, arvab et peast põrunud. Vähendavad lennukiparki, koondamised, tume tulevik, majad soovitavad müüa... ühesõnaga täiskomplekt.
Müüdud @7.73 . Kartma hakkasin, parem varblane peos. -
Hundreds of airlines are expected to be wiped out completely and many that remain will default on payments for the jets they rent from aircraft leasing companies, which own about half the global fleet. A wave of repossessions would be quickly followed by a swarm of cheap rentable aircraft on offer to carriers looking to save money where they can.
Airlines and leasing companies are saying it’s likely to be the worst ever crisis.
Estimates from several sources, incl. Boeing and Airbus, suggest that there were 24000 commercial passenger jets in service worldwide when the pandemic took hold. The half that are owned by airlines generally are subject to financing arrangements with lenders. IBA, consultancy that arranges aircraft repossessions, estimated that 1000 jets would be reclaimed by leasing co.'s over the next 12 months. Indeed, a source at a top aircraft leasing company suggested that the number could be higher still. They expect 10% of the global fleet, about 2400 aircraft, to be repossessed or put into storage.
Half the world’s 800 airlines will go bust by the end of next month without gov. support, Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation, a consultancy, has predicted. Airlines are expected to lose $314 billion in revenue this year IATA said.
Big leasing co's, incl. AerCap, Avolon and GE Capital Aviation Services, typically rent popular Airbus and Boeing models that are 3-7 y.o. for terms of 10-15 years. “You’re expected to make all the payments” president of IBA said. “It’s not very flexible at all. There will be an excess of aircraft. It is going to take a long time to get back to where we were.”
Avolon said this month that 80% of its airline customers had asked for relief, which may include deferrals of lease payments. A banking source said that banks were agreeing to extend airlines’ loan payments on owned jets by up to 90 days. However, in both cases, the deferred payments would be due before the end of the year.
Many airlines are considering sale-and-leaseback deals to raise cash, the banking source said. Last week, United, one of the largest US airlines, said that it would sell and lease back 22 jets.
None of which is good news for Boeing and Airbus. Already struggling with cancelled orders and with the number of potential buyers shrinking, their market values have slumped by more than half in recent months. The Times -
Norwegiani näide: "airline, which at its height was flying 37 mln passengers p.a. is trying to persuade aircraft lessors and bond investors owed more than £3 bln to swap their debt for equity. Deal needs to be executed at a meeting of the co. next month that will enable it to access £230 million of Norwegian state aid to keep the biz going.
All existing equity investors’ holdings will be diluted to only a 5% stake, incl. Bjorn Kjos, founder and former CEO, who once held a 25%+ stake and who led the airline on a helter-skelter expansion. Present shareholders will be further diluted by a planned subsequent rights issue. In a bleak prospectus for all involved, the grounded airline warned: “Even if the group is able to restructure its debt, it is expected that the group will still have a significant amount of debt, including substantial fixed obligations under aircraft leases and financings. The group’s ability to service such debt is subject to a number of risk factors, including future effects to the group’s ops caused by the Covid-19 outbreak. The group has significant liabilities relating to aircraft acquisitions and may not obtain financing of such acquisitions. A failure to secure financing or to meet payment obligations under aircraft acquisition contracts may lead to a breach of contract. Such default may result in severe financial penalties, and make the group unable to take delivery of the acquired aircraft.”
In further signs of the trouble facing the industry, Dave Calhoun, chief executive of Boeing, said yesterday that the struggling planemaker would need to borrow more money within the next 6 months. He also cautioned that it would be “a while” before the company started paying a dividend again.
Meanwhile Delta has increased the amount it is looking to raise to $5 bln in a bid to shore up its balance sheet. -
Norvegian oli probleemne ka enne kriisi.
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Tundub, et Lufthansa päästmine ei tule nii sujuvalt välja. EU tahab, et Lufthansa loobuks osadest slottidest Frankfurtist ja Münchenis, koos valitsuse tingimustega mitte koondada jne juhatus arvab, et ilmselt pankrot oleks parem lahendus (ei usu et nad seda tõsiselt pakkuvad).
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Kui riik võtab Lufthansas nt. 20%-se osaluse, siis aktsia hind langeb (lahjendus) sama määra võrra (ceteris paribus)?
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tauts
Kui riik võtab Lufthansas nt. 20%-se osaluse, siis aktsia hind langeb (lahjendus) sama määra võrra (ceteris paribus)?
Kindlasti, kuid turul kõik on juba hinnas või liigub sinna suunas. Huvitavam, kuidas väljumine korraldatakse.
Praegu arvestab turg, kui riigiabi ei tule, siis pankrot on vältimatu. -
SAS saatis kirja:
/bla-bla/ I wanted to reach out directly to you as a EuroBonus member, to let you know about the actions we are taking to make SAS a stronger competitor in the global aviation industry as passengers continue returning to the sky:
SAS and certain of its subsidiaries have voluntarily filed for Chapter 11, a legal process for financial restructuring in the U.S. that will enable us to implement key elements of our SAS FORWARD transformation plan. Many large airlines based outside of the U.S. have successfully used this process over the years to reduce their costs.
This process is expected to have no impact on our customers and hence no impact on your membership status.
There are no changes to our flight schedule because of this process. Your current bookings remain in effect, and you will be notified as usual of any changes to our scheduled departures although the ongoing SAS Scandinavia pilots’ unions strikes will continue to impact the flight schedule. You can continue to book flights online at flysas.com or through our mobile app. Additionally, you can continue using tickets, vouchers, and gift cards already purchased.
We are proud of our legacy as Scandinavia’s leading airline. We value our relationship and look forward to continuing to serve you for years to come. -
See kiri on umbes nagu panga avaldus "likviidsusprobleemi ei ole". Ilmselt tähendab see lennufirmade keeles, ära booki igaks juhuks lendu.
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Keegi oskab öelda, mis on SAS-iga juhtunud (positiivses mõttes)? Krahhist olen kuulnud, kuid nüüd on kolme päevaga ca 140% tõusu. Ühtegi uudist nagu ei paista.
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surev pennystock nii käitubki või siis tõmbleb oma agoonias.
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Airbus (AIR) flirdib uute tippudega. Juba on ületatud pandeemia eelne tase. Näis, kas saab 150-st läbi murtud ja toetuma. BA hädad MAXI'dega võiks justkui pärituul AIR'le olla.
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Tõenäoliselt selles asi ongi, AB tellimused kasvavad läbi Boeingu hädade.
