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lennundussektori tõus

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  • Kas US Airways (U) võib veel tuhast tõusta? Praegu on ta juba pikemat aega alla 5 taala rippunud, 11.09, mis teha.

    Prohvetid, ennustage!
  • ennustada ei tasu, tuleb pilk peale heita. kuid üks siin läks juba põhja. Sabena
  • SASil ei pidavat ka eriti hästi minema...

    Mis SwissAirist kuulda on? Kauaks neil raha jätkub?
  • Ma arvan, et lennundussektoris leiab paremaid investeeringuid. Alles oli siin avalehel üks artikkel. Osta tasuks vast väiksemaid firmasid, kes suudavad raskel ajal turuosa võita.
  • Väike spekulatsioon:

    Reisilenundus on muutunud (vähemalt täna) natuke kõhedusttekitavaks. Kunagi ei tea, kas jõuad pärale või ei. Ehkki statistika näitab midagi muud, on inimestel siiski NY pilt silme ees.

    Samas lennata on vaja, sest ega business ajamata saa jääda.

    Äkki muutuvad atraktiivseks väikelennukite tootjad? Learjet, Bombardier, Cessna, Piper, Pilatus?
    Kas mõni neist ka noteeritud on?
  • Parim investeering lennundussektorisse on kas Southwest (LUV) või Alaska (ALK). Alaska Air on ainuke suurematest firmadest, kes teenindab Alaska osariiki, kus NY sündmused eriti kedagi ei huvita-- lendamine on neile elustiil. Southwesti hinnapoliitika ja efektiivne kulumajandus teeb sektori üheks parima kasumimarginaaliga firmaks. Mõlemad firmad olid ainukesed, kes 3Q-s kasumisse tulid ja seda ka ilma valitsuse abirahadeta.
  • "Väike" ülevaade USA lennufirmadest :)

    American Airlines (AMR) Liquidation likelihood: 20% Sales: $20 billion Income : ($917 million) Cash: $69 million Daily losses: $10 million to $15 million Share price: $18.55 (down 53% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor : 85% Actual load factor for October: 59.6% Long-term debt: $4.7 billion

    Analysis: As the world's largest airline, American qualifies for the biggest piece of the government bailout. Looks like it will need the help, with a tenuous cash position and up to $15 million in daily negative cash flow. Its size will probably prevent its demise, but it has jumbo-jet sized problems to fix.

    United Airlines (UAL) , unit of UAL Corp. Liquidation likelihood: 30% Sales: $18 billion Income: ($1.9 billion) Cash: $2.7 billion Daily losses $15 million Share price: $11.02 (down 72% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 96% Actual load factor for October: 63.4% Long-term debt: NA

    Analysis: After booting out its CEO, United brought in an outsider, Jack Creighton, to cut costs, mend fences with unions, boost revenue and get people flying again. That's after the company took its focus off customers and onto an ill-fated potential merger with US Airways. What is this guy, Superman?

    Delta Airlines (DAL) Liquidation likelihood: 25% Sales: $15 billion Loss: ($464 million) Cash: $2.78 billion Daily losses: $8 million Share price: $25.69 (down 50% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 85% Actual load factor for October: 60.5% Long-term debt: $8.9 billion

    Analysis: CEO Leo Mullin says now is the right time to scope out airline mergers, suggesting he may be looking for one. Delta's cash position is relatively strong and the airline is among the least unionized, allowing it to tackle its labor costs more quickly than others.

    Northwest Airlines (NWAC) Liquidation likelihood: 20% Sales: $10.6 billion Income: ($276 million) Cash: $2.8 billion Daily losses: $6 million to $8 million Share price: $13.24 (down 56% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 90% Actual load factor for October: 66.3% Long-term debt: $4.9 billion

    Analysis: With a near-monopoly at its Minneapolis hub and a strong cash position, Northwest should stay solidly independent. CEO Richard Anderson says Northwest will take scheduled delivery of new planes in 2002.

    Continental Airlines (CAL) Liquidation likelihood: 20% Sales: $9.6 billion Income: $98 million Cash: $1.2 billion Daily losses: $4 million to $5 million Share price: $18.35 (down 64% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 77% Actual load factor for October: 65.6% (latest figures from first half of Oct.) Long-term debt: $4 billion

    Analysis: One of only two airlines to make money over the last 12 months, Continental should come through it OK. It's got one of the best records for on-time arrivals and isn't too far away from its break-even load factor. It's encouraging that it won't use federal loan guarantees.

    US Airways (U) Liquidation likelihood: 80% Sales: $9.4 billion Income: ($333 million) Cash: $1 billion Daily losses: $6 million Share price: $4.49 (down 89% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 88% Actual load factor for October: 62.4% Long-term debt: NA

    Analysis: It was dealt a huge blow when regulators nixed its merger with United. Now US Airways has to figure out how to quickly cut costs (already among the highest in the industry) while downsizing itself to profitability. The clock is ticking.

    Southwest (LUV) Liquidation likelihood: 0.5% Sales: $5.7 billion Income: $602 million Cash: $1.48 billion Daily losses: $1 million (latest figures from first half of October) Share price: $17.70 (down 22% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 65% Actual load factor for October: 63.7% Long-term debt: $751 million

    Analysis: It's the Dell Computer of the airline industry: keeps costs (and frills) low while maintaining loyal customer base. Within two percentage points of its break-even load factor, it's the only major airline that will make money this year.

    America West (AWA) Liquidation likelihood: 90% Sales: $2.2 billion Income: ($128 million) Cash: $144 million Daily losses: $1 million to $2 million Share price: $1.78 (down 86% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 88% Actual load factor for October: 68.2% Long-term debt: $352 million

    Analysis: The days appear numbered for this airline, dubbed "America's worst" by Forbes. The company is in rough shape in terms of cash and load factor. And getting people to fly the airline won't be easy. Recall the child traveling alone on the airline this summer--America West misplaced her.

    Alaska Airlines (ALK) Liquidation likelihood: 15% Sales: $2.2 billion Income: ($41 million) Cash: $667 million Daily losses: NA Share price: $26.45 (down 13% YTD) Estimated Q4 break-even load factor: 75% Actual load factor for October: 63.6% Long-term debt: $869 million

    Analysis: Like Southwest, Alaska Airlines has lower costs than the bigs, enabling it to hit profitability even in tight times. The niched airline was ranked by Forbes as losing the least amount of luggage.

    Sales and income (loss) figures are for last 12 months. Cash and debt are for most recent quarter. Fourth-quarter estimated load factors provided by Fitch. Shares prices are for Nov. 7 close.


  • lennusektori tõus jääb vist pikemaks ajaks tulemata:)
    siiski on southwesti ja alaska aktsiad kõige vähem miinuses kui kogu sektor vastavalt ca 2,5%&8%
  • Mis ma ütlesin nädal tagasi - U viskas täna üle 22%! nädal tagasi oli 4,8, nüüd läheneb 7- USDile.
    Ennustan, et U adekvaatne hind oleks kuskil 12,7 USD-i järgm nädalal l6puks ja 25 USDi jaanuari keskpaigaks.

    CAL tegi ka kena 10% hüppe.
  • Viimane Barrons kiidab 911-sündmuste valguses erareaktiivide tootjaid ja lennuaja edasimüüjaid. Nimetas järgmisi aktsiaid BBDB.TO TXT RTN GD
  • Ise mängisin UAL peale - ka teine ilusti 7% kaupa päevas tõusnud...
  • Pühade ajaks teevad lennufirmad meeletuid pakkumisi
    idarannikult Las Vegasesse edasi-tagasi pilet 500USD +3ööd hotellis
    Puerto Ricosse tasuta edasi-tagasipilet, vaja vaid hotellipakett osta jne.jne.
  • UNITED AIRLINESI (UAL)-i mehhaanikud streigivad. Viimased pole palgakõrgendust saanud 94-st aastast saadik. Lisaks leiti UAL-i Airbus-i sabast ultraheli testiga väikseid defekte. See sunnib ka teisi lennufirmasid "sabaaluseid" kergitama (mis tähendab aga hulka $-eid). -2,5%

    Uurijad ei ole siiani kinlaks teinud, mis põhjustas American-i (AMR) lennuki allakukkumise New Yorkis (võib-olla oli viga lennuki sabas?). Kuid vastupidiselt UAL-le hoolitseb AMR oma mehhaanikute eest- parimatele anti auhinnad.

    US Airwaysi (U) checkpointide turvamehed olid koolitamata (FAA ametnikud käisid kontrollimas). U -3,7%. Osamal kodutöö tegemata, oleks võinud ju ära kasutada :-)
  • Ja ongi lennunduse aktsiad endistes kõrgustes (peale 11.09.2001):

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