Müüge SCO
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Vajuva UNIXitootjana tuntud Santa Cruz ehk SCO teeb mingeid väga närvilisi liigutusi:
http://www.minut.ee/article.pl?sid=03/05/15/1256211&mode=thread
Mu senine mitte-investori praktika ütleb, et sellised neurootilis-paranoilised kohtuasjad on alati kaotatud ja hageja firma lõpuks kas pankrotti läinud või maha müüdud. Selliseid näiteid on ajaloost hulgaliselt võtta.
Ise SCOd ei oma ja teiste eest ei vastuta :=) -
Ma julgeks pigem SCO-d osta kui müüa, rääkimata shortingust. Põhjused: P/B 0.25, cashi aktsia kohta 45.81$ vs 6.65$ aktsiahind, viimasel ajal on aktsiate ja võlakirjade hinnad tõusnud, mis peaks andma korraliku finantstulemi. Enne tegutsemist ootaks ära siiski Q1 tulemused.
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Üks arvamus lisaks:
http://yro.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=64233&cid=5958505
Aga tagantjärgi tarkus pidavat täppisteadus olema. Ennustused on maha pandud ja näeme, kas ja kellel õigus on. Ega ma ka ju muud ei ütle kui et muster sobis kogemusega. -
SCO Q1 tulemused väljas ja aktsia suures plussis! Net income 31M EUR. Usun jätkuvalt, et aktsiat tasub pigem osta kui müüa.
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Hell yeah! Ja 4400 tk tehtud. Näide aktsiast, millega ei tohiks yldse tegemist teha. Selline ebalikviidsus tapab.
sB -
Lugedes tundub, et siin on mingi segadus. Osad inimesed räägivad SCO Unixi tootjast Calderast(sümbol: SCOX) ja teised aga Prantsuse edasikindlustajast SCOR Group-ist (sümbol: SCO).
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Mnjaa, segadus missugune, ma rääkisin SCO-st (edasikindlustajast).
Vaatame siis SCOX-i: aktsiahind 4.68, kahjum aktsia kohta 1.15, cash vähenes aasta jooksul 0.67, järel on veel 0.41. Minu jaoks väga oluline näitaja omakapitali tootlus on MIINUS 109%. Siin pankrot lähedal jah. -
Microsoft on ostmas UNIX tehnoloogia SCO grupilt. Väidetavalt kindlustamaks kohtuvaidlust, millest tonuonu rääkis. Tundub, et MS leidis omamoodi vahendi vabavara ohjeldamiseks. Ole ju MS ennegi rääkinud vabavara ohtlikkusest ja kui ebaaus see on.
Microsoft to Buy Unix Technology From SCO Group -
vahetaks ehk topicu nime ära. Müüge SCOX oleks t6etruum
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Veel sama teema jätkuks - Microsoft to license Unix code .
Samas ei saa ma aru, mida on väärt Caldera Intl ilma unixi intellektuaalse õiguseta? Mida nemad sellest müügist võidavad. -
Olen seda SCO vs. IBM case natuke jälginud. Päris huvitav lugu on. Suure tõenäosusega on tegemist BS-ga.
Kõlksutatakse ka, et enne hagemist oli toimunud üle pika aja insider buy ja pärast seda kui SCO hages ja asja kella külge panekust stock tõusis, on ka müüdud päris hoolega.
Võimalikud stsenaariumid:
1. Osutub tõeks Novelli jutt, mille kohaselt SCO-l pole System V lähtekoodile autoriõigust. On omandiõigus aga pole autoriõigust.
2. Osutub tõeks siit: http://forum.golem.de/phorum/read.php?f=44&i=1869&t=1716 loetu, mille kohaselt kogu hagi põhineb sellel, et koodides on samasugused kommentaarid, kuigi kood ise erineb. Kahtlen, kas kommentaaride kopeerimise eest mõistetakse välja $ 3 miljardit.
3. Osutub tõeks, et SCO viitab koodijuppidele, mis on loodud mujal väites, et need on System V koosseisus (JFS; NUMA etc.), kuid mis on tegelikult loodud kolmandate osapoolte poolt (IBM, SUN, SGI)
4. SCO võidab kohtucase, mille peale IBM-i ainus väljapääs on vaenulik ülevõtmine, mis toob kaasa selle, et SCOX läbib kõik laed, mis väheg mõeldavad.
Isiklikult pean viimase lahenduse tõenäosust nullilähedaseks, mistõttu arvestades viimase perioodi tõusu - short bigtime! Kuna on üsna suur tõenäosus, et SCOX pudeneb tagasi sinna $1.2 kanti, kust ta oma tõusu alustas. Siinkohal tuleks uurida muidugi, millal toimuvad kohtuistungid jms. ning millal hakkab asjast pilti saama. -
Case'i on 3-4 viimases nädalakolumnis käsitlenud ka RXCringley. Midagi head sellest scox jaoks tõusvat tõesti ei paista. Mis linke lhv.ee-s vajutama peab et teda shortida saaks? trade3.cfm -s ei paistnud sellist võimalust olema.
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SCOX-i shortimise juures teeb mind ettevaatlikuks Q2 majandustulemused. Nimelt olid tulud 21.4M$ (15.5) ja EPS 0.33 (-0.47) ning cash suurenes. Vähemalt pankrotist võib esialgu vaid und näha.
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kui scox kaotab, teeb ibm countercase ja ongi kööga - damaging biz vms
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Tannus, selleks et lühikeseks müüa, pead aksepteerima Lühikeseks müügi eritingimused.
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MyDoom worm designed to attack SCO Web site
MyDoom, the latest worm to infect computers over the Internet, was designed to attack the Web site of the SCO Group Inc., the small software maker suing IBM over the use of code for the Linux operating system, experts said Tuesday.
In response, SCO, which has drawn the ire of many Linux advocates for its claims that Linux software includes copyrighted code from the Unix operating system, offered a $250,000 reward for "information leading to the arrest and conviction of those responsible for this crime."
Since appearing late Monday afternoon, the worm has spread rapidly, mostly in North America, accounting for one in nine messages globally, experts said. The volume of messages clogged networks and appeared to be concentrated in corporate environments.
The new worm, also known as Novarg or Shimgapi, is activated when unsuspecting recipients of an e-mail message open a file attachment that releases a virus.
An infected personal computer could then allow attackers to gain unauthorized access and use the computer to aid in an Internet attack to bring down SCO's Web site, said Oliver Friedrichs, senior manager at security company Symantec Corp.
"Certainly there's code in here to launch a denial-of-service attack against SCO on Feb. 1," Friedrichs told reporters on a conference call.
BOUNTY OFFERED
SCO, based in Lindon, Utah, has already been targeted repeatedly with numerous denial-of-service attacks, which are used to flood a Web site with requests for information so that it overloads and shuts down.
"This one (MyDoom) is different and much more troubling, since it harms not just our company, but also damages the systems and productivity of a large number of other companies and organizations around the world," Darl McBride, SCO's chief executive, said in a statement. "We do not know the origins or reasons for this attack, although we have our suspicions. This is criminal activity and it must be stopped."
SCO claimed in lawsuit filed last March that International Business Machines Corp.'s customers and others are illegally using a version of the Linux operating system, a free operating system that software developers can modify.
The attacks from infected computers are scheduled to begin on Feb. 1 and continue to Feb. 12, Symantec said.
At risk are computers running the latest versions of Microsoft Corp.'s Windows programs and any e-mail program.
The worm doesn't exploit any flaws in Windows, but rather is designed to entice the recipient of an e-mail to open an attached file and run programs contained in the attachment.
The mass-mailing worm that arrives as an attachment with an .exe, .scr, .zip or .pif extension and can have a subject line of "test" or "status."
Users who receive the worm and simply ignore or delete it will be able to avoid any damage.
MyDoom also mails itself out to addresses in the victim's computer and is clogging mail servers and degrading network performance at companies, experts said.
The worm appears to have a random sender's address and subject line and sometimes contains an error message such as "The message cannot be represented in 7-bit ASCII and has been sent as a binary attachment."
Microsoft also offered two $250,000 bounties last November for information leading to the capture of those responsible for the Blaster worm and SoBig virus. -
Ja mina ütlen, et nüüd pikaks minna paariks päevaks on hea mõte
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Tänahommikune WSJ:
Few stocks have been as red hot as Red Hat Inc., the dominant player in the market for the increasingly popular Linux computer-operating system.
But the stock is being doused with a bit of cold water amid concern that the enthusiasm for companies making money from the "open source" Linux system has gone a bit too far. Potential competition for Red Hat, which sells its own version of Linux and provides service and support for the operating system, also is making some wary, as is a torrent of insider sales by top Red Hat executives.
Shares of Red Hat, left for dead after the pricking of the technology bubble in 2000, have tripled in the past year alone. But the stock has slipped to the low $17 range, closing Thursday at $18.09, up 61 cents, after hitting a recent high of almost $22 in late January. And some say there could be more weakness ahead.
Behind the worries is a growing realization among some investors that despite its heady growth, the Linux system has its share of issues to overcome. Last week, SCO Group Inc. sued DaimlerChrysler AG and AutoZone Inc., the latest in a series of lawsuits SCO has brought against Linux providers and users. SCO, a software company, contends that part of Linux violates copyrights that the company holds. SCO already has sued Linux vendors, including International Business Machines Corp. and Novell Inc.
While it isn't clear whether any of the litigation will ever succeed, it could begin to make some users more wary of embracing the Linux system, according to some analysts. While Linux backers have attempted to assuage customers by establishing a legal fund and pledging to indemnify them, concern could grow if SCO is successful in court. A recent poll conducted by the Gartner Group suggested that about 27% of its more than 100 respondents were slowing their deployment of Linux, or avoiding the operating system, as a result of fears of litigation. If the caution grows, it could hurt Red Hat.
"Every single quarter for the last four quarters, new customers have just exploded. SCO does not have an impact today on the adoption of Linux," says Red Hat's chief financial officer, Kevin Thompson. "Those that have expressed concern are not the ones who we expect to adopt Linux in the next 12 months, they're not leaders in technology."
Meanwhile, some say Linux could begin to face more security problems, just as the Windows system has been encountering such problems.
"As it enters the mainstream, Linux will be more of a target for viruses and hackers," predicts Charles Di Bona, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. who covers Microsoft Corp.
Meanwhile, last year, Novell purchased a rival company that serves the Linux market, and could emerge as a key competitor to Red Hat, thanks to Novell's larger sales and support staff. Gartner estimates that Red Hat controls as much as 80% of the U.S. server market for Linux. If Novell can make headway, it could crimp that dominance.
While Red Hat's growth likely will continue, the easy pickings may be over. Almost 15% of all new servers currently are being shipped with the Linux system, and the figure could hit 20% in the next few years, according to analysts.
But many of the gains are coming as customers flee from the Unix computer operating system, which could garner well under 10% of the market for new shipments by next year, according to analysts. At that point, Linux and Microsoft's Windows system increasingly will go head-to-head for market share, making it harder for both to gain.
While the overall market continues to grow at an impressive pace, in part as a result of the fact that Linux is cheaper than other systems, some analysts say there still is reason for caution.
"It's not that Linux won't get traction, but there is a lot of hype around Linux," says Mr. Di Bona. "I would caution that there is a bit too much euphoria about Linux-related companies. It's not a perfect system."
Mr. Thompson of Red Hat says: "We've just started to scratch the surface" in many areas of the market.
Stock sales by Red Hat executives also put a damper on the picture. Chief Executive Matthew Szulik exercised options on 1.4 million shares this year, and sold them all -- as well as an additional 500,000 or so shares from his existing holdings, according to Thomson Financial, which tracks insider sales. While insider selling has been picking up throughout the tech world, and Mr. Szulik's selling is being conducted by an outside party as part of a plan he established earlier this year, there is still reason for caution, according to some analysts. "He's definitely selling in larger quantities than ever before," says Kevin Schwenger, an analyst at Thomson Financial. "It does stand out."
Mr. Thompson of Red Hat said: Mr. Szulik's "selling has been a fraction of the selling of other CEOs from 1999 to 2004, and it's been a small percentage of his total holdings." Mr. Szulik holds about 7.6 million shares of Red Hat, according to the company.
Other Red Hat executives also have been selling stock and have filed to sell more in the months ahead, adding to supply in the market.
To be sure, Red Hat shares aren't likely to plunge anytime soon. Earnings growth should continue to be strong: The company is expected to post earnings of 19 cents a share in the recently ended fiscal 2004 and 36 cents in fiscal 2005, up from nine cents in 2003. Linux is one of the only hot themes in a software industry still struggling for new growth ideas. And since Red Hat is one of the only plays on this growing Linux market, some investors say that if the stock gets cheaper, they will consider stepping in with buy orders.
Still, Red Hat shares don't have much room for disappointment. The stock is trading at a huge 93 times expected earnings for fiscal 2004.
And about 6% of Red Hat's shares were borrowed and sold last month, a figure that is about three times that of the average stock, suggesting that many investors remain convinced the stock's heady run may be over. -
Ja NYT:
More evidence emerged yesterday about Microsoft's role in encouraging the anti-Linux campaign being waged by the SCO Group, a small Utah company.
BayStar Capital, a private investment firm, said Microsoft suggested that it invest in SCO, which is engaged in a legal campaign against Linux, a rival to Microsoft's Windows.
BayStar took Microsoft's suggestion to heart and invested $50 million in SCO last October. But a spokesman for BayStar, Robert McGrath, said, "Microsoft didn't put money in the transaction and Microsoft is not an investor in BayStar." He added that Microsoft executives were not investors as individuals in the investment firm, which is based in San Francisco.
Mr. McGrath said the suggestion came from unidentified "senior Microsoft executives" but not Bill Gates, the Microsoft chairman, or Steven A. Ballmer, the chief executive.
Microsoft, Mr. McGrath said, is not indemnifying the investment firm against risk or otherwise indirectly supporting BayStar's move. "The issue for BayStar," he said, "is whether there is a good return on its investment in SCO."
Microsoft, Sun Microsystems and a few other companies have struck deals with SCO to license its technology. SCO owns the rights to Unix, an operating system initially developed at Bell Labs. SCO contends that Linux, a variant of Unix, violates its contract rights.
SCO's legal campaign began last year when it sued I.B.M., a leading corporate supporter of Linux, and recently stepped up its legal attack by filing suit against two companies that use Linux, DaimlerChrysler and AutoZone.
The defendants are fighting the lawsuits, saying they have done nothing wrong and challenging SCO's claim that its rights are as broad as the company contends.
Microsoft stands to gain most from any slowing of the advance of Linux, which is maintained and debugged by a network of programmers who share code freely. That model of building software is called open source development.
It is not particularly surprising that Microsoft, given its interests, played the go-between for an investment in SCO. "But this shows is that there is a lot more than meets the eye in SCO's litigation strategy," said Jeffrey D. Neuburger, a technology and intellectual property expert at the law firm of Brown Raysman Millstein Felder & Steiner. "SCO has an agenda, and Microsoft clearly has an agenda, and it's doing whatever it can to further its cause."
The extent of Microsoft's behind-the-scenes role in SCO's legal effort has prompted questions and speculation for months. Last week, a leaked e-mail message from an adviser to SCO to the company added to the controversy in the industry. In the memorandum, sent to two SCO executives, Mike Anderer of S2 Strategic Consulting discussed a role in financing SCO, writing that "Microsoft will have brought in $86 million for us including BayStar."
SCO acknowledged that the e-mail message, obtained by the Open Source Initiative and posted on the open-source advocacy group's Web site, was authentic.
But SCO added that it was a "misunderstanding of the facts by an outside consultant" who was not working on the BayStar financing. SCO added that Microsoft did "not orchestrate or participate in the BayStar transaction."
A SCO spokesman, Blake Stowell, said yesterday, "We stand by that." -
Tekkis selline segane mõte, et SCOXi peaks hoopis ostma, kuna ta on Linuxi turgu pekki keeramas, siis RHAT ja NOVL ja teised OSi distribuutorid hakkavad talle lihtsalt maksma, et ta ei kaebaks end-usereid enam kohtusse.
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SCO-ga on nüüd siis asjad ühel pool:
http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/08/10/Novell-wins-right-to-Unix-copyrights_1.html
