Börsipäev 6. juuli

Peale USA iseseisvuspäevast tingitud pikka nädalavahetust on USA turud avanemas parajas miinuses ja allpool olulistest tasemetest: Nasdaq 2000 punkti, Dow Jones 10300 punkti, S&P500 1125 punkti.

Üheks languse põhjuseks on nafta hinna tõus taas üle 39 dollari taseme seoses jätkuvate sabotaazhiaktidega Iraagis ja Yukose ümber toimuvaga Venemaal.

Tulemuste hooaeg hakkab seoses pika nädalavahetusega tavalise 6. juuli asemel päev hiljem. Täna on ainsa raportina enne turu avanemist laekunud Acuity Brands (AYI) oma. Homme peale turgu sulgemist avaldavad tuntumatest tulemused Yahoo! (YHOO), Alcoa (AA), Genentech (DNA), enne kauplemispäeva Accenture (ACN).

Rev Shark:

"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price."

-- Vince Lombardi

The bulls have been working for weeks now to turn the market back up and end the downtrend that has been in place since the beginning of the year. However, they can't seem to manage quite enough of an effort to produce a real and lasting change in the trend.

Following the end of the quarter and the FOMC interest rate hike last week, the bulls were primed and ready for some upside action but couldn't manage to generate any sustained buying. On Friday the monthly jobs report disappointed, and with the long holiday weekend beckoning, the buyers stayed cautious.

We now have a new set of catalysts at work as the earnings season kicks off. The bulls need some good news and, more importantly, some steady buying to help generate some upward movement. The bulls have not quite been able to take advantage of some of the positives that favored them in recent weeks. They show a few flashes of buying interest but haven't done the sort of hard work need to generate lasting success.

So where do we go from here? We are in a precarious place technically. Both the S&P 500 and the DJIA are testing the bottom of the trading range that has been in place for almost a month. The Nasdaq is struggling to hold above the downtrend line that connects the January and April highs. These support levels look fragile, and the bulls can't afford to sit on them for long or they will definitely crack.

One of the biggest problems for the bulls right now is the semiconductor sector. The group has had very poor relative strength lately and is testing the lows it hit in May. There is both an upgrade and a downgrade of the group today, but earnings and guidance will tell the story there.

On the positive side, there are some pockets of upside momentum, mainly in the small-caps. There isn't a lot, but there are obviously buyers looking for strength that they can pursue.

So the technical picture is a bit cloudy, recent economic news is mediocre, and the bulls can't seem to generate any real buying enthusiasm. Our best hope for some good trading is earnings season. At a minimum, some good individual reports will offer interesting trading opportunities, but whether reports will be good enough overall to change the macro picture has yet to be seen.

We have a weak post-holiday start. Overseas markets were generally weak, oil is trading up, and the news flow is fairly quiet, which is probably why John Kerry announced his VP selection this morning.

A lot of folks were looking for a post-holiday bounce in the market as we have seen in prior years. They obviously will be caught leaning the wrong way to start the day, but I would not be surprised to see this weak open bought.

G. B. Smith:

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