Börsipäev 4. august

Täna leiame turu avanemas miinuses. Naftahind on eilsega võrreldes veel pisut (0,28%) kerkinud ja Dow Jonesi indeks on kütusehindadest sõltuvate aktsiate suure osakaalu tõttu alustamas ca -1% eilsest madalamal, Nasdaq ja S&P500 aga ca -0,40%.

Olulisemaks sündmuseks eilsel järelturul oli telekomiseadmete tootja Ciena (CIEN) antud käibehoiatus. Ettevõtte avaldab kvartalitulemused 19. augustil enne turu avamist ja uuendatud prognoosi kohaselt oodatakse käibe kasvu aastatagusega võrreldes vaid 10% varemalt oodatud 30% asemel, samal ajal prognoositava kahjumi suurust ei muudetud (-0.07-0.08 USD aktsia kohta). Aktsia on täna eelturul langenud -19,20%.

Rev Shark:

"The best theology would need no advocates; it would prove itself."

-- Karl Barth

The action in the market over the last 10 days or so provides a very good example of why the safest approach for most investors is to wait for the market to prove itself rather than anticipate that a change in trend is coming. The lure of catching the bottom is extremely hard to resist. We all like the idea of buying at the low point and selling at the high, and our natural tendency is to attempt to do exactly that. However, what many folks forget is that the risks of loss are much higher compared to other approaches to the market.

It is interesting to see how the fear of missing out on a possible rally can so easily overcome fear of losses. Folks who have been losing money steadily are extremely quick to embrace the first signs of a trend change, no matter how minor it may be. What is particularly fascinating is that the stronger a trend, the greater the inclination there is among some market participants to imagine that it is coming to an end.

Over the years, my approach to trading has remained the same and yielded excellent results. I don't try to make the "big" market-direction call. Foremost, I work to preserve my capital because without capital it doesn't matter how good a trader you are. Capital preservation means you respect the trend; don't attempt to go for the homerun. Don't make big bets hoping that you will catch a trend change. However, once a clear change in trend does emerge, you embrace it fully, and that is when you make the big money.

This approach may seem plodding to some, but it will help ensure that your portfolio is constantly hitting new highs. Waiting for proof and greater certainty isn't as exciting as buying recklessly in hopes you will nail the bottom. However, over the course of years, it will produce constant and consistent outperformance. If you need an adrenalin rush, go to Las Vegas or take up parachuting. Trading is about making money not doing exciting things.

Yesterday's poor action is carrying over to this morning. Indications are for a poor open. Overseas markets were weak. Crude oil continues to hold around the $44-a-barrel level and continues to take a toll on the bulls. Bad news in the Internet sector from Interactive Group (IACI:Nasdaq) is helping to pressure the indices. The chip stocks faltered badly yesterday and that is continuing this morning.

It is tough going out there for the bulls. The possibility of a follow-through confirmation rally that the bulls need after last week's action is steadily dimming, and that means that we should be in capital-preservation mode.

G. B. Smith:

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