Börsipäev 2. detsember
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Täna on viimane päev aktsiate ostmiseks neil, kes soovivad osaleda Kalevi fondiemissioonis - 8. detsembril fikseeritakse aktsionäride nimekiri, kes saavad iga aktsia ilma täiendava sissemakseta juurde 2 uut.
Seega aktsiahind langeb algselt 3 korda, kuid tihti on selline protseduur aktsiate edasisele käekäigule hästi mõjunud. Kevadel viis sarnastel tingimustel fondiemissiooni läbi Hansapank, osaliselt võib praegust edu põhjendada ka sellega. Peab siiski arvestama, et Kalevi aktsia likviidsus ei ole Hansapangaga ligilähedaseltki võrreldav.
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No j6ulud ju tulemas.Komme ikka ostetakse.hehe
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ameeriklasi dollari nõrkus ei häiri, kaua euroopa ja jaapani eksportööridel närvid vastu peavad?
....ennem kui hakkavad keskpankadele pinda käima -
Rev Shark:
A Little Blind Faith Can Help
12/2/04 8:38 AM ET"You may be deceived if you trust too much, but you will live in torment if you don't trust enough."
-- Frank Crane
In the investing and trading business, like any normal business, it certainly seems like a good idea to be a skeptic. We all know how easy it is to be taken advantage of if we are overly trusting.
The stock market, in its typical perverse fashion, often richly rewards those who trust the prevailing trend. The market tends to move in streaks, up or down, over fairly long periods of time. Although most everyone recognizes this tendency, one of the favorite games of Wall Street pundits is to try to predict when the current trend will come to an end. They remind us constantly and with increasingly dire warnings why we shouldn't trust this market, about why it is going to turn around and bite us at any moment.
Invariably the pundits are incorrect in timing when the trend will end and in the vast majority of cases they are too early rather than too late. They keep trying to nail the exact point when the trend will end and that guarantees they will always be early with their predictions.
A simple mantra that has served me well over the years is "trust the trend until it ends." I have found that when I try to predict turning points I almost always cost myself more money than if I had simply waited for some actual technical evidence that the trend was faltering. Trends almost always last longer than seems reasonable and, as we saw yesterday, some of the most substantial gains come at the point when the skeptics are the loudest.
Exact timing of the turns in the market is always difficult so we are always going to be early or late when it comes to dealing with a market turn. The great tendency of Wall Street is to be early, which I believe comes from a penchant for trying to be a hero who nails the market turn. A person who is a little late in calling a turn can never nail the exact top, while the person who is early always has that possibility.
Quite often if we suspend our skepticism and simply "trust the trend until it ends" we will enjoy some unexpected gains when things continue further than we thought reasonable. That doesn't relieve us of our obligation to stay vigilant and protect our capital in the event of a turn. It simply means that being overly skeptical and anticipatory can be far less profitable than having a little blind faith.
Early indications are flat. Same-store sales reports are rolling in and look like a mixed bag so far. We have weekly unemployment claims this morning but then the focus will turn to the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) midquarter update tonight after the close, and the monthly jobs report tomorrow morning. These two events should help shape our short-term direction.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
CRGN +18% (receives fast track FDA designation; highlighted Wednesday morning by Briefing.com as a trading opportunity), BIVN +12% (bounce from 19% drop yesterday), CMOS +12% (beats by $0.04), NGEN +10%, ADSX +6.3% (DOC unit starts shipping products to USDA), WFII +6.2% (First Albany upgrade), JRJC +5.9% (started with a Buy at WR Hambrecht, tgt $15), SSTI +5.4% (started with an Outperform at Piper; tgt $10), NTLI +4.4% (sells its British broadcast assets for US$2.5 bln), WZEN +4.8% (momentum from 13% move yesterday), SEPR +4.1% (Morgan Stanley upgrade), IVIL +4% (positive Deutsche comments), SBUX +3.8% (same store sales), CNET +3.3% (positive TWP note), SIRI +2.9%.... Under $3: MRSA +19% (co is considering to delist itself from Nasdaq; may pursue sale of assets, mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, recapitalizations, share repurchases etc.), TMTA +16% (inks license agreement with Fujitsu), SSPI +12% (announces 3 new design-ins), PHMD +11% (announces acquisition), VWPT +7.6% (to acquire UniCast).
Gapping Down
Down on disappointing Nov same store sales/guidance: ANN -12%, GPS -6.5%, LTD -5.5%, ANF -3.3%, PSUN -2.9%..... Other News: AAPL -2.1% (Smith Barney downgrade), PPCO -11% (clinical data), GIGM -10% (sell-the-news reaction to earnings report, after 20% run on Briefing.com trading call), VRNT -7.2% (reports OctQ), ISIS -5.6% (clinical data), PARS -5.2% (therapy programs reviewed by NeuroInvestment), ENZN -3.8% (ODAC does not support accelerated approval for Marqibo), X -2.8% (Pru downgrade), OTEX -2.7% (Jefferies downgrade), CLTK -75% (pays $3/share special dividend). -
Edukaks võib osutuda loteriipilet: INTEL call04 ,strike25 preemia0.1
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0.15. Päris kena ralli peab olema ja 200 päeva MA kipub ka jalgu jääma.
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Sulgesin LHV Pro all UTEK ja NMSS positsioonid vastavalt 12,3% ja 20,6% kasumitega.
Ardo -
NFLX Netflix at CSFB Conference (briefing.com):
Suggests that movie market is $44B market, and DVD sales is main reason. Suggests that DVD sales are like the hard copy and VOD is the paperback version of the business. Co states the when VOD comes, many titles will still only be available on DVD. States that AMZN is likely to enter market at a low price and will also offer VOD soon. Believes DVD will have a huge window until piracy comes into large effect. AMZN launch in UK is imminent. Notes that BBI is not afraid of cannibalizing its brick and mortar stores. Mgmt notes they are developing an instant messenger tie in to further site stickiness. Believes with all the investment and marketing going on from competitors that subs can go over 6 mln for the industry. WiFi to the TV is the company's plan for VOD delivery from computer. Studios have direct delivery through Movie Link, but notes that NFLX adds value. Moving from $22 to $18, seeing record low churn (record low was 4.7%) seeing substantial subscriber additions. Co expects to win with volume and having lower costs due to higher volume. Sees 4 mln subs by the end of next year, looks at Y05 as a time to widen their lead. Suggests that BBI online's churn, SAC and gross margins numbers are worse than NFLX (BBI does not release those numbers). Economics of VOD are "pain and misery" currently not enough volume to make money in the business.
Tundub, et Amazon (AMZN) otsustas siiski DVD laenutuse ärisse siseneda. Seda siiski UKs, kus NFLX teghev ei ole. Nagu olen varem maininud, siis AMZN ei saa endale lubada veel ühte rahakaotavat äri. NFLX hetkeks küll kukkus uudise peale, kuid on praeguseks liikunud kõrgemale.
Ühe karuse pisikese maja analüütiku kommentaar uudise peale oli selline:
"..The launch of AMZN in the UK can only be bad news for the company, and now the CEO begins to address the DVD sales market as something that is attractive to them. This further confuses the issue of what an investment in NFLX is really generating. The lower price point is helping, as we expected, but the instant messenger tie in is not likely to be enough to make the site that much more attractive to new users..."
Bottom Line:
We believe that NFLX is a SELL
Netflix (NFLX) on LHV Pro soovitus. Negatiivsust jätkub mitme aktsia jagu. whew! -
Lehmani tehnilise analüüsi osakonna pealik Jeff deGraaf (!) kirjutab täna oma klientidele järgmist:
"While yesterday’ price action was no doubt accumulative for the broader market, it also created a
rare condition where the SPX is now 1 std dev above its 50-day,and volume is 1 std dev above its 65-day
average. These situations usually happen out of low points when momentum is strongest (such as the Spring of '03) or at peaks when buying becomes climactic (Dec/Jan of last year).
This tends to be far too early to be a useful timing indicator, but it does suggest and support our claim
regarding the euphoric nature of sentiment."
sB -
INTC sees Q4 revs of $9.3-$9.5 bln, vs $8.98 bln consensus
aktsia üle punkti plussis -
Selgelt üle analüütikute ootuste. Üldiselt arvati, et prognoosid langevad varasema vahemiku ülemisse poolde. Eks vaatame, mis siis call'il räägitakse.
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Intel raises Q4 revenue range
Co announces that it expects Q4 sales of $9.3-$9.5 bln, vs previous guidance of $8.6-$9.2 bln (consensus $8.98 bln), driven by strong worldwide demand for the co's Intel Architecture products. The Q4 gross margin is expected to be between 55-57%, as compared to the previous expectation of 56%, plus or minus a couple of points, and is expected to be in the upper half of the revised range. Co continues to make progress on inventory reduction and expects a net inventory decrease of several hundred million dollars by the end of the qtr. All other expectations are unchanged. The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 was signed into law in October and allows companies to repatriate cash into the United States at a special, temporary effective tax rate of 5.25%. Under the Act, up to approx $6 bln of Intel earnings from non-U.S. subsidiaries may be eligible for repatriation at the temporary rate. The co is reviewing the matter and does not yet have formal plans regarding the repatriation. -
QQQQ ka ilusti plussis selle peale, let the rally go on.
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SEMIS TO THE MOON!!!
