Börsipäev 28. detsember
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Rev Shark:
Year-End Action Is Just Year-End
12/28/04 8:33 AM ET"It is the experience of living that is important, not searching for meaning. We bring meaning by how we love the world."
-- Bernie S. Siegel
Those of us searching for some significant meaning in the market action this week are going to be frustrated. What is happening has little long-term impact and provides little insight into what the future may hold. This week is about vacations, preserving bonuses and not letting performance slip away. The usual "hot money" traders are lurking about looking for action but even their ranks are thinned and their impact limited to a smaller-than-usual group of stocks.
What we end up with is random market action that makes a logical approach to the market even more difficult than usual. When trading is thin and trendless, it is not much different than playing a slot machine: Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, and it has very little to do with how skilled you may be.
If you are going to trade this week the key to success is good money management. Money management is always important but in a thin, random environment it is even more important than usual because price movements can be so quick and unpredictable.
Good money management simply means keeping position size small enough so you can exit without slippage, not letting losses grow too fast and taking some profits when you have them. It is also important to stay aware of your time frames and to not let a trade turn into an investment if it doesn't work the way you planned.
There can be some excellent trading this week but it comes with the price of having to exercise great vigilance and moving a bit quicker. Just don't fool yourself into thinking that anything that is happening at the end of the year has any significance beyond this week. The new year will bring a whole new set of concerns and opportunities with longer-term repercussions, but for now the market is shallow and superficial.
Early indications this morning are flat. Asia gained on strength in importers and lower oil prices. European markets were mixed. Oil has bounced back up a little bit and the dollar is mixed. The news wires are quiet but Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) has an upgrade that may keep the move in Internet stocks that kicked in yesterday moving along.
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USA turud on avanemas plussis, Nasdaqi futuurid on 3 punkti ja S&P 5400 futuurid 2,5 punkti plussis. Nafta hind on jätkuvalt alla 42 dollari barreli eest ning euro pürib dollari vastu uutele tippudele.
Eile teatas Amazon (AMZN) rekordilisest jõulumüügist ning täna on ettevõte saanud mitmeid reitingu tõstmisi, Bear Stearns tõstis firma reitingu "outperform" peale ning hinnasihi 46 dollarilt 55 dollarile.
Soome paberitootja Stora enso (SEO) andis kasumihoiatuse, mille peamiseks põhjuseks on dollari nõrkus ning suurenenud tootmiskulud. Aktsia on Helsingi börsil 2% miinuses.
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Gapping Up
Earthquake/tsunami plays add to huge gains yesterday: CLWT +38%, SDIX +13%, BTHS +11%, TAYD +7.6%, NGRU +5.3%.... NYER +15% (hearing chatter this is a tsunami play as a medical supply co; connection seems like a stretch to us), IMGN +11% (forms partnership with J&J's Centocor), SWFT +8.4% (guides higher), WGAT +6.2% (momentum from 50% move over last 2 sessions), AMZN +3.8% (Bear Stearns upgrade), LEXR +3.5% (expands sales channels in China), TZOO +1.7% (momentum from 10 pt move yesterday)... Stem Cell stocks continue recent momentum: STEM +4%, ASTM +5.2%.
Gapping Down
SIRI -3.3% (BofA reiterates Sell rating; firm says too much hype and expectations on Stern, risks to a capital raise), HLYW -1.8% (BBI to launch tender offer for co stock below current stock price), SNDK -1.6% (Smith Barney reiterates their cautious stance), TEVA -1.4%. -
Turg on täna võtnud kosumise põhjuseks oodatust parema tarbijausalduse. Kuid endiselt väga õhuke.
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siri tundub päris tugev hoolimata tänasest uudisest
see haip või kesta aastaid -
Legg Mason's Bill Miller finally overtakes S&P500
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Famed stock picker Bill Miller
has pulled ahead of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the
final week of 2004, keeping chances alive his Value Trust fund
will beat the benchmark index for a record 14th straight year.
As of Monday, the Legg Mason Value Trust fundwas
almost half a percentage point ahead of the reinvested returns
of the S&P 500 <.SPX>, according to data from Lipper Inc.
A nearly 9 percent surge on Monday in shares of Amazon.com, one of Value Trust's largest holdings, helped push
the fund's performance ahead of the index for the first time in
almost a year.
Value Trust has outperformed the reinvested returns of the
S&P, a broad gauge of mostly large-cap stocks, for 13 straight
years, a feat no other actively managed fund has done since at
least 1960, said Legg Mason Inc., where Miller works.
The streak is all the more impressive when the size of the
fund, with about $11.8 billion in assets, is taken into
account, as Miller's investments are limited to big companies.
A small-cap portfolio manager would have more options.
"It's not just that no one's done it for awhile, nobody's
even close to him," said Tom Brown, who runs a $400 million
hedge fund at Second Curve Capital.
"That is an absolutely spectacular record! I've been a Bill
Miller fan and admirer for a long time and am pulling for him
big-time to keep his streak alive," Brown said in an interview
last Friday.
Amazon said on Monday it had logged its busiest holiday
shopping season in its 10-year history, which boosted the
Internet retailer's shares and led Bear Stearns on Tuesday to
raise its investment rating for the stock to "outperform."
Amazon rose again on Tuesday, up 6.2 percent to $44.87, and
shares of other Internet companies also rose, including those
of EBay Inc., which gained 1.9 percent and possibly
will keep Value Trust ahead of the S&P.
But the volatility between the performance of the S&P and
Value Trust can be great. As of Friday, the fund's year-to-date
performance lagged the reinvested returns of the S&P by 57
basis points. There are 100 basis points in 1 percentage point.
On Monday, Value Trust was ahead by 42 basis points.
The reinvested returns for the year of the S&P had gained
10.2 percent as of Monday, and Value Trust had gained 10.62
percent, according to Lipper, a unit of Reuters Group Plc.
With Amazon accounting for 6.1 percent of the Value Trust,
a swing in its price can greatly affect the fund's overall
performance, as can other large holdings, such as Nextel
Communications Inc._, which accounts for 7.1 percent of
the fund. EBay Inc.accounted for 3.75 percent of the
fund as of Sept. 30.
Bill Milleri juhitud fondid on ka Netflixi (NFLX)'i suurimad aktsionärid. Lisaks sellele ka ligemale 10 mln Tenet Healthcare (THC) aktsiat.
sB -
Suhteliselt märkimisväärne on olnud Milleri usk e-kommertsi lipulaevadesse (EBAY, AMZN). AMZN hakkasid Legg Masoni fondid soetama juba $10 kandist, kui kõik (k.a. yours truly) äärmiselt negatiivsed olid.
Milleri usk Netflixi (NFLX) on ka minu usu üks alustalasid. -
Miller on tase, kahtlemata, aga see tema tase pigem näitab teiste fondide nõrkust. Loogiline, et aktiivne fond peaks biitima S&P500t.
Uskuda, et stock on hea põhiliselt sellepärast, et ta on Milleri pick, on siiski kahtlane.
Ma ise ei paneks raha Milleri fondi. Gimme Cramer's hedgefond anytime:) -
Palju Crameri fondi min. summa oli? $10 mln? Krt, raamat sinu käes!
sB -
Metalli aktsiad t6ususirgel, Olympic Steel ZEUS > $29, kuid voluumist jaab vajaka.
Dollari n6rkus on peap6hjus miks metalliaktsiad kerkivad, prognoositakse, et dollar jaab n6rgaks seni, kuni Bush v6imul on. -
seal polnd kirjas miinimumi, raamat siin jah. eks toob ära.
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Monolithic System Tech (MOSY) on näitamas tugevust isegi peale positiivset Barronsi artiklit, mis selle pisikese tech firma (väike)investorite radaritele tõi. Panin selle LHV Pro alla ka.
Huvitav on märkida, et eelmisel nädalal tuli välja 8K SEC filing, millest võib lugeda, et investeerimisfirma Ingalls & Snyder LLC on avaldanud soovi osta rohkem kui 15% firma aktsiatest.
Barronsi artiklis tsiteeritud hedge-fondi juht nägi 12 kuulise hinnasihina $10. Mäletatavasti soovis suurem konkurent SPNS Mosys'i aasta alguses $13/shr eest ära osta.
sB
http://www.ingalls.net/ -
Eon Labs (ELAB) on üks päris huvitav firma, mille kallal oleme koos Arko Kadajasega nokitsenud. Kirjutan lähemal ajal ilmselt ka LHV Pro all.
Hea näide firmast, mida sooviksime esindama geneerikute sektorit meie klientide tervishoiuportfellides.
sB -
Sel ajal kui muud turuosalised aasta lõppu juba tähistavad, maadlevad ilmselt Miller ja tiim baaspunktidega ... 14 aastat on igatahes märkimisväärne ja viitab suurepärasele aktsiavalimisninale.
80% fondijuhtidest jääb ju indeksile alla ... -
Vaatan, et Pharmos (PARS) figureerib LHV aktiivsemalt kaubeldud aktsiate nimekirja eesotsas ka peale seda tabanud krahhi. Siit-sealt on kuulda, et hea põrkemäng. Siiani on tõesti surnud kass põrganud, kuid erilist usku ma sellesse firmasse enam ei oma. Nagu Fit ütles, lotopilet ei võitnud.
Ravimiarendus kätkeb endas mitmeid riske. Viimase aja paremad näited on CGTK ning ADLR. Hetkel ei puutuks kumbagi.
LHV Pro soovitus Vicuron Pharma (MICU) oli ka üks taoline suur kukkuja, kuid seal olid mängus teistsugused tegurid, mis lubasid head sisenemisvõimalust. Aga MICU kukkus ka peale esimest 40% juukselõikust veel edasi. Pakun, et mingil hetkel teeb sama PARS. Samasugust tagasipõrget nagu MICU puhul aga enam ei tule.
sB -
Go MCEL!
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Millest tuleneb tänane Netflixi tõus ?
Hetkel + 5 %. -
E-Loanile ka täna hea päev...nagu ka paljudele teistele aktsiatele muidugi. Tundub, et lühiajaline tõusutrendijoon on jõus - põrge ju sealt pealt ka toimus
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Chart of the Day
Today's chart illustrates how the majority of major market tops have occurred during a presidential election year (plus or minus one quarter). One theory for this phenomenon is that the party in power will make difficult economic decisions in the early years of a presidential cycle and then do everything within its power to stimulate the economy during the latter years in order to increase the odds of re-election
