Börsipäev 29. detsember
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Rev Shark:
Don't Overthink This Tape
12/29/04 8:32 AM ET"If you keep thinking about what you want to do or what you hope will happen, you don't do it, and it won't happen."
-- Joe Dimaggio
The market makes it is very easy to think yourself out of some good trades. Careful contemplation is not always rewarded. The deep thinker can always find a reason why he should think some more and forego taking action, but acting first and worrying later can be quite profitable, especially in a market environment like we have now.
The folks who shun the analysis and just take some swings were the winners yesterday. The session was a particularly good example of an environment that awarded action rather than a lot of additional thought. We had broad strength and some big movers, and if you jumped in and didn't worry too much about the disaster that the bears were sure was going to kick in at any moment, you probably did well.
It certainly isn't hard to find a good reason why we should worry about the ability of this market to continue endlessly higher. Technically we are quite extended and you can easily find a dozen or so fundamental concerns to choose from. But for now we are at that time of the year when forces tend to conspire to keep things positive: End-of-the-year window dressing and cash inflows are powerful forces that shouldn't be underestimated.
The biggest problem the market faces is the anticipation that this seasonal strength will end quickly in the new year. Traders are likely to start doing some positioning in anticipation of such an event and that may help cap momentum and speculation. The fact that so many individual stocks are technically extended may also serve to cool the pace of advances.
For now, don't overthink the end-of-the-year action. There are some good opportunities if you keep time frames short and respect the momentum. There will be a time to worry about this market and to employ a more elegant strategy but for now flailing away may be the way to go.
The early action is flat to slightly negative. Overseas markets were mostly negative. The dollar struggled and oil is steady in front of inventory reports this morning. We also have existing-home sales data due, and that is likely to produce a reaction in the home-building sector.
Once again trading is going to be thin and choppy so if you are playing the game, stay vigilant.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Down
PROX -21% (lowers guidance), MSO -4.9% (Insider selling heats up for MSO - WSJ), SIRI -4% (money manager makes negative comments on CNBC).
Gapping Up
Earthquake/tsunami plays add to gains: NGRU +23%, TAYD +16.4%, SDIX +3%, ANLT +7.1%, BTHS +7%.... Other News: RMBS +6.7% (memory to be used in Playstation 3 - xbitlabs.com), ANCCD +27% (regains Nasdaq listing compliance), BIVN +14% (up on the GENZ FDA approval), IRSN +12%, DDDC +7.5% (Internet phone cos avoid regulation -- NY Times), WFII +6% (gets O2 contract), NMSS +5.8% (started with a Buy at ThinkEquity; tgt $9), VIP +5.6% (Morgan Stanley believes the lower than expected amount of the initial 2002 tax claim is positive for the stock), NTOP +4.8% (expands network; also, Internet phone cos avoid regulation -- NY Times), INCX +4.4% (momentum from 11.4% move yesterday), NFLX +3.7% (short interest increased to 75% -- WSJ), MDCO +3.6% (successfully completes Angiomax phase III trails), CMC +2%.... Under $3: XEDA +66% (hearing chatter this is a tsunami play; connection seems like a bit of a stretch to us; trading high volume in pre-mkt), EQTX +40%, VIFL +23%, CRDM +13.4% (regains Nasdaq listing compliance), OLAB +10.5%. -
09:24 India setting up Tsunami early warning system -- AP
The AP reports that the Indian govt has said it will install an early warning system to predict lethal tsunamis such as the ones that hit Asia and Africa this weekend. Of the 11 countries affected by the tsunamis, only Thailand belonged to an existing warning system working among the Pacific-Rim countries. India's Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal told reporters India's system would be independent of the Pacific-Rim program because that one does not monitor the Indian Ocean. Sibal said it would take up to 2 1/2 years to put the system in place and likely will cost up to $27 million.... Briefing.com Note: This news coupled with the increasing death toll numbers could spark more interest in the tsunami space. -
Kui TASR 30 murrab, võib see tõusu kiirendada.
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kas tulumaksul arvestatakse t+3 või reaalaega?
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peaks olema raha laekumise päev, s.t. et tänane müük läheb juba 2005.a. kirja.
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Wall Street Journal on täna väljas nupukesega Netflixi (NFLX) teemal. Välja toodud kõik probleemid. Siiski on aktsiad täna plussis (tavaliselt oleks neg. maiguga WSJ artikkel väärt -5%). Põhjuseks artiklis välja toodud short interest, mis täna küündib 19.1 mln aktsiani. See on 75% väljas olevatest aktsiatest. Pessimism lokkab.
Netflix (NFLX) ei ole ilmselgelt nõrganärvilistele.
Panin antud WSJ artikli ka LHV Pro alla.
sB -
13:52 Mike Tyson tells reporter that his life "sucks" - Fox News - tänane börsipäev :)
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arko, mis sektorit see uudis mõjutab? kas on mõni eriti hea pick? :)
