Börsipäev 3. jaanuar - tere tulemast, 2005!
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Alustuseks kõigile edukat kauplemist aastal 2005!
Uuel aastal uue hooga - futuurid on juba eelturul tublisti plussis, Nasdaq koguni 0.6%. Uue aasta kaks esimest päeva on reeglina väga positiivsed ning kuna 2004.a. viimane nädal oli väga vaikne, siis peaks tõusu toetama.
Jaanuari jooksul ootan siiski korrektsiooni, seetõttu osa oma pikast positsioonist indeksitest (soetatud detsembri keskel) müün täna ja osa homme. -
Avaneme üles ja siis tuleb asi alla. Thats my BET.
sB -
Rev Shark:
Still More Points to Score
1/3/05 8:42 AM ET"Live your life each day as you would climb a mountain. An occasional glance toward the summit keeps the goal in mind, but many beautiful scenes are to be observed from each new vantage point. Climb slowly, steadily, enjoying each passing moment; and the view from the summit will serve as a fitting climax for the journey."
-- Harold V. Melchert
We begin a new stock market journey this morning as the new year commences. For most market participants it is a good idea to set some ambitious goals for the year ahead but make sure you don't forget that the way to obtain them is to focus on the journey. It is persistent effort day to day that takes us where we want to go. If you take pleasure in the journey and focus on the work in front of you, our goals will take care of themselves.
We have been hearing from lots of folks lately who are happy to offer their prediction about what will happen in 2005. Some will be right and some will be wrong but it is useless for us to spend too much time dwelling on long-range predictions. We can do nothing to change the course of the market. All we can do is try to prepare as events unfold.
One of the biggest mistakes many investors make is to be overly anticipatory about what lies ahead. We hear a prediction from an experienced and erudite market professional and then rush to be ready for the anticipated scenario to play out.
When we focus too much on long-term predictions we miss the beauty of the daily opportunities that the market presents. Certainly we have to keep the big picture in mind but not at the price of sacrificing the many short-term possibilities in front of us. The biggest problem I have with most market pundits isn't that their logic isn't sound or their predictions likely -- it is that the are slaves to their views and lead many of us to miss out on the short-term opportunities that can be so lucrative.
Any sensible person who looks at how far and how fast this market has moved since hitting a bottom back in August would have to conclude that we are due for a pretty sharp pullback at some point. It is not a question of "if" but of "when." Unfortunately, if you have been too aggressive in anticipating the inevitable pullback you have missed out on some tremendous profits in recent weeks.
Although there are good reasons for the market to pull back, for quite a while now there has been nothing in the technical action to indicate this rally is about to come to an end. The end-of-the-year pressures have subsided now and that may change things but there is still positive seasonal pressure at work in early January, and earnings season kicks off shortly as well.
As the seasonal pressures come to an end we'll have to be increasingly on guard for market weakness but don't be too quick to sacrifice short-term opportunities in order to be ready. This market still has plenty of positives going for it and even if it is late in the game that doesn't mean we can't score plenty of points.
We are kicking off 2005 with a very upbeat open. Crude oil is down and there is little news of consequence on the wires. I often comment on Monday morning optimism and it looks like we have something similar kicking in this morning: New Year's optimism. The Monday morning optimism often fizzles quickly and there is a good chance that today's positive open will have a limited life span as well.
Good luck in 2005. Enjoy the journey.
Gary B. Smith:
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Rõõmsat uut aastat kõigile!
USA aktsiaturud on alustamas esimest kauplemispäeva plussis, millele on kaasa aitamas nafta hinna langus ja dollari tugevnemine. Suurtest turgudest olid kinni Tokio ja London, mis jätab jälje eelkõige valuutakauplemisele.
Goldman Sachs tõstis internetiportaalide Google (GOOG) ja Yahoo (YHOO) neljanda kvartali tulude prognoose, reklaamitulud peaksid olema antud kvartalis eriti tugevad.
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Haip töötab - Kanada hullu lehma tõve teate peale lendavad "mad cow stocks" - VITX +40%, EMRG +11%, DOC +10%.
Selle nädalaga peaks ka käive ja suurem volatiilsus börsile naasma. -
Gapping Up
Mad cow stocks are higher on news that Canada has confirmed its third mad cow case: VITX +40%, EMRG +11%, DOC +10%, ADSX +8%..... Other News: MVIS +11% (signs license and development deal with JNJ subsidiary), WGAT +10% (continues recent momentum), TIVO +7.3% (now allows subscribers to transfer programs from TiVo box to a laptop), ANTP +7.3% (continues 300% move in last month), KNTA +7.1% (Roth notes co's exposure to online tsunami relief agencies), DCAI +6.4% (debuts on IBD top 100 list), PXLW +5.8% (BofA upgrade), PKS +5.2% (Lehman upgrade), ANGO +4.7% (moves up on IBD list), NVDA +3.7% (to debut entry-level AGP-capable GeForce 6-series chip), IDNX +3.7% (selected to power national ID program for Middle Eastern country), ELN +3% (highlighted in Barron's, which was out intraday Friday), YHOO +2.7% (Goldman raises ests above consensus), GOOG +2.6% (lead story on 60 Minutes; also Goldman raises ests above consensus), ERICY +2.3%, TASR +2%.... Under $3: INSG +34%, HOFF +23% (momentum from 44% move last Friday), NYER +7%, INSM +7% (submits new drig application).
Gapping Down
SUNW -3.7% (cut to Underperform at Bernstein, tgt $4.40), SUPG -12% (announces withdrawal of Orathecin NDA), AGIX -12% (provides update on AGI-1067 trial), MOTV -8%, TAYD +5.5% (tsunami play losing some steam, follows 9% drop on Friday), CYBX -5.4% (receives warning letter from FDA), RRD -2.8%, MIKR -2.4% (profit taking from 40% move on Friday). -
GOOG on eelturul Goldmani kommentaaride puhul $197 peal, kuidas läheb seekord $200 tasemega? Tasub radaril hoida.
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Kas, keegi oskab mulle põhjendada miks osta YHOO, GOOG ... ning mille põhjal annavad sellised firmad nagu Goldman jms. selliseid hinnasihte ?
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AAPL taking a hit. Tundub, et turg läheb sama rada.
sB -
rick mina ei oska- ja soovitaks pigem kohalikku õlletööstusse paigutada
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Small-cap semis have pronounced January Effect - Smith Barney
Smith Barney notes that the "January Effect" is rather pronounced for their small-cap semi coverage, with historical avg and median Jan stock price returns of 13.3% and 12.4%, respectively, for co's with trading history dating back to at least 2000. Firm says that SLAB has returned 20% and 24% (avg and median) in the four Jan months that it has publicly traded, and the stock increased in 3 of the 4 Januaries (Sept and May have been SLAB's poorest stock return months). Firm says PXLW has a similar record, returning 18% and 19% (avg and med) in its four Jan months, and the stock increased in 3 of the 4 Januaries (Sept and Dec have been its poorest stock return months). Firm says LSI and TQNT have seen their shares rise in 80% and 64% of their historical Jan months... While no definitive conclusions can be drawn from this exercise, firm says history shows that Jan could be a good time for investors to consider getting more aggressive on the group. -
hetkel on nasdaq ikka tugevalt miinuses ja samas seisus mis 28ndal oli. bettiel õigus
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et mitte öelda 27ndal :)
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Näitasin eelmisel nädalal ühes Avalöögis (link siin), kuidas turg on olnud väga tugev just aasta teisel kauplemispäeval.
Miks just teine päev? Ei oskagi öelda, kuid vaatasin Nasdaqi viimase 15 aasta graafikut ning tõepoolest üsna hämmastav - aasta esimene kauplemispäev on olnud üsna närviline ja heitlik, aasta teine kauplemispäev oli vaid ühel juhul suure miinusega, enamasti plusspäev ja seda veel päris korralikus ulatuses, Nasdaq oli päris mitu paariprotsendilist rallit teinud just teisel päeval. Homset jälgime huviga.
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Kas keegi oskab midagi RGEN-i viimase aja tõusu kohta midagi kommenteerida? Oleks nagu pro valik ka.
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Tundub pigem random action. Mingi suurem tegija ostab veidi aktsiaid. RGEN on jälle selline loteriipilet või call-optsioon.
sB -
Turu üldise suht kesise käitumise taustal on huvitav, et GOOG suudab siiski momentumit hoida ja on $200 taseme lõpuks murda.
