Börsipäev 7. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Unemployment rate +5,4% vs +5,4% consensus
Nonfarm Payroll 157K vs 175K consenus
Average Workweek 33.8 vs 33.8 consensus
Hourly Earnings +0,1% vs +0,2% consensus -
väga närvilised olid seal igatahes
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Cody Willard:
Put the Selloff in Perspective
1/7/05 8:54 AM ETQuite the selloff to kick off the new year. Technically, the Nazz has been down five days in a row. With a little more digging though, the Nazz hasn't done anything positive for eight straight days, as the last four trading days of 2004 were essentially flat.
Step back yet a little further and you'll see the Nazz hasn't really had its rally legs underneath it since the end of November. Finally, if one looks at the QQQQ rather than the Nazz, it's clear that this market hasn't been in rally mode since late November when the QQQQ hit a multiyear high and has stumbled lower since.
Of course, to really get some perspective, one needs to look at the action since we exited the summer "soft patch" that roiled so many companies' fundamentals and their stocks. The Nazz has rocked the shorts, jazzed the longs and left many pundits who thought the bull phase was finally dead, as it ran 25% in about three and half months.
Certainly, as we're seeing from a lot of tech companies, such as DoubleClick and STEC in just the last 16 hours, pre-announcing to the upside, the fundamentals now are much better than they were during those soft-patch summer days when almost nobody but nobody reported strong numbers. (That's not to look past the warnings from companies like UTSI and others recently; my point is simply that there were almost nothing but warnings from tech companies in August.)
So business is fine for now and stocks reflect that. The fundamental outlook for 2005 appears to be strong for most tech stocks again. The biggest place of concern in my mind are the semi's. RevShark has noted repeatedly that the semis have not been acting well in a long time. While certainly there will be more semi companies than this summer with strong fundamentals, such as STEC and LSI already, and probably INTC and AMD in upcoming reports, there are still a lot of glut issues in the sector that will roil earnings and stocks. One will have to do homework to figure out which companies will be strong and which will be weak, as the overall sector is likely to have neither the boom times of 2003 nor the bust times of last summer.
Most other sectors, from software to storage to telecom equipment, don't have such glut issues and, given a decent to strong broader economy, will have a good 2005 -- as we'll be seeing they did in the fourth quarter of 2004 too when the earnings season kicks off next week.
The employment numbers look not too hot, not too cold and the guys who buy and sell the futures in the premarket have decided that's a good thing. We'll have to see if the market can finally do something besides open strong and close weak for the first time this year.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
Stem cell stocks continue recent momentum: GERN +4.6%, ASTM +4.4%, STEM +3.6%.... Other News: RFIL +23% (reports OctQ), SAP +2.8% (strong Trading Europe after co was added to JP Morgan focus list intraday yesterday in the US), DCLK +6.8% (guides above consensus), VAST +44% (to be acquired by JPM), WSCI +33% (reports NovQ), WSTF +20% (reports OctQ), STEC +16% (guides Q4 revs above consensus), IDXX +6% (to receive European approval of BSE postmortem test), ANTP +5.9% (momentum stock adds to 12% gain yesterday), AQNT +4% (in sympathy with DCLK, also Piper positive comment), OXGN +3.4% (plans to move CA4P into later-stage clinical studies).... Under $3: TRPH +28% (chosen to power Panasonic's new auto units), ISO +19% (names new CEO), VOCL +10%.
Gapping Down
UTSI -18% (cuts Q4 rev guidance; Smith Barney and BofA downgrades), TASR -11% (announces informal SEC inquiry), FORM -10% (lowers Q4 guidance), CACS -7.8% (guides DecQ revs below consensus), BRCD -4.3% (to restate financial statement for 2002 and 2003; 10-K filing delayed), KOSP -3.6%, BEBE -2.6% (First Albany downgrade). -
Suurt rõõmu teeb Taser tänane miinus, selle haip saab ehk lõpuks otsa. TASR -16%
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Nonoh! Egas nüüd mingi SEC-i informal investigation veel haipi ei lõpeta!
sB -
Dollar jälle rallimas. Euro vastu alla 1,31 taset. Snow dollarit toetamas.
Treasury Secretary John Snow said the Bush administration continues to support the so-called "strong dollar" policy. "A strong dollar is in our national interest," Snow said in a television interview with CNBC. "We are focused here on the fundamentals. What really counts is the fundamentals," Snow said. The Treasury chief said fundamentals include strong job growth and "dealing with defict." -
kui haipidest ja crapist veel rääkida siis ...
SIRI -3,80%
AAC -6,49%
Viimase puhul ootan hr.Energy ilmumist foorumisse muinasjutuga sellest kuidas ta oma aktsiad tipus maha müüs ja kõva kasumi teenis, :) -
see teine eestlane ikka kõige magusam...
no ei ole sõnu. ja see nüüd mõni kukkumine. tahaks kohe midagi roousti öelda. -
QQQQ päevasisene graafik näeb päris paljulubav välja..
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Henno>>
tipust ei myynud :-) aga ligi $8K sai teenitud.
3500 AAC aktsiat jai veel katte, neid hoian.
Olen ostnud ZEUS-i $23 tasemelt, myysin $29 ja nyyd jalle ostnud $24 ga.
Good luck!
Tartz>> respect!!! V6tsid s6nad suust :-) -
Energy, millisena Sa näed terase hinda edaspidi?
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Energy, kas su juurde õpipoisiks saab tulla? Vaatama, kuidas sa oma geniaalseid keerulisi aktsiastrateegiaid ja põhjaliku fundamentaalresearchi põhjal sündivaid ideid mängleva kergusega ellu viid? :)
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Tartz, vaata alljärgnevat 2 graafikut ja loe läbi kõik AAC kohta käivad postitused foorumis Ratsa rikkaks, minu arusaamist mööda oleks investeering QQQQ-sse ennast rohkem ära tasunud kui AAC-sse, kui Sinu arust on nende 2 asja riskiastmed võrreldavad, siis muidugi on AAC haipimine foorumites OK ...
Mul näiteks ka ei ole sõnu ja tahaks ropendada kui LHV foorumites kasutajate poolt megatootlust lubavaid ideid presenteeritakse ja algajatest LHV kliendid seda juttu puhta kullana võtavad ning kogu raha mõne säärase crapi alla panevad. Juttu "aga Teie foorumis ju soovitati" ma pean vägagi tihti kuulama kui mõni selline positsioon kõva lossiga kinni läheb ...
Siinkohal me ei räägi siis mitte ideede neutraalses vormis väljakäimisest igaühele tutvumiseks ja otsustamiseks, vaid järjepidevast haipimisest ja enda spetsialistina esitlemisest, oma vingest tootlusest rääkimisest jne.
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täna seda kindlasti teha ei viitsi. aga stiilis -6,49% on maailmalõpp ja nii edasi....
samasuguseid (ka palju hullemaid) langejaid võib ju leida ka LHV lähiaja soovituste hulgast. -
Jim>> N6udlus terase jarele on k6rge, seda kinnitab nt ka eilne TONS prognoos 2005 aastaks.
TONS ~ $60 per aktsia, ZEUS ~ $24, Olympic Steel on praegu yks parimatest metalli aktsiatest kuhu investeerida. Nii kaua kui Bush v6imul on, jaab dollar suhteliselt n6rgaks, st basic material (teras) jaab hinda.
Sammuti nafta hind ei lange nii vaga. Maailm on palju rahutumaks muutunud, pidevad terrori ohud,
tsunaamid, orkaanid, tornaadod, sellel aastal tuleb teha veel suuri kulutusi yhekordse p6hjadega naftatankerite ymbertegemiseks(oi kui palju terast jalle vaja), kuna uued tankerid saavad valmis alles 2007-2009a jallegi terase buumi t6ttu
on siin probleeme.
Fit>> Ma ei ytleks, et mul on geniaalsed strateegiad olnud, oleks v6inud palju paremini minna.
Selleks, et midagi saavutada, peab oma strateegiale kindlaks jaama, olin ju AAC-ga nt $7K miinuses ja aasta aega oli raha sisuliselt seismas. Kokkuv6ttes tasus ikkagi ara. AAC on t6esti hasti oma
"live auction" tehnoloogiat arendanud. Saab ju praegu luisa tasuta pealt vaadata, kuidas neil
live auction kulgeb, selleks ei pea registreerima. AAC-l on ainult yks n6rkus praegu, pole piisavalt kliente, et ilma EBAY abita hakkama saada. Ma arvan, et AAC on yllatusi veel kyllaga tulemas. Aaasta aastalt on neil paremini lainud. -
Henno>> Ma ei vaidle vastu, et QQQQ investeering oleks end ara tasunud.
Sul jai ainult hinnavahe mainimata :-)
Vt oma eelviimast AAC graafikut, tabasid vaga tapselt AAC p6hja ara, nyyd aga kibestud, et mul hasti lainud ja ise juhust ei kasutanud. -
Vanarahval on selline tabav ütlus, et enda kiitus haiseb. Igaüks peaks sellest omad järeldused tegema...
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tauts >> 6ige ytlus. K6igile head kauplemist.
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Lenda, lenda, lenda must LENF...
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Jah Hennol on vist kade meel :))
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Tere k6igile p6hjanaabrite juurest.
Hennoga 100% n6us, Henno syydistamine kadeduses on rumal jutt, Henno seletas oma p6hjusi ylalpool. Pigem on eesmärk 6ige mulje j2tmises enamikule lugejatest.
Vaadakes kasv6i Energy kommentaare - kui aktsia t6usis, siis olid ylep2eviti kommentaarid tema v6idust, kui aktsia pool aastat allapoole tuli, ei tulnud vist yhtegi kommentaari. Nii ongi, v6itudega kiideldakse, kaotustest ei r22gita. Nii j22bki paljudest miinuses kauplejatest mulje kui v6itjatest. Enda kiitus t6esti haiseb ...
AAC keiss - jutt nende "live auctionite" tublidusest on v2ga kaheldava v22rtusega ning see polnud p6hjus miks aktsia hyppas, turg hakkas 2004 l6pus lihtsalt junke armastama - v2ga paljud stokid lendasid selliselt. Ja strateegiaga pole minu meelest siin mingit pistmist, tavaline kasiino - k6ik panused yhele kaardile.
Kokkuv6ttes - olen n2inud turgudel ka LHV klientide silmade läbi juba aastast 2000 ja teatavaid mustreid v6ib m2rgata. Ma ennustaks, et Energy on samamoodi j2tkates 20% t6enäosusega kahe aasta p2rast plussis ja 80% miinuses. Kommentaaride j2rgi tundub jälle vastupidi. Loodetavasti minu ja Henno kommentaarid aitavad säästa kellegil raha, see on ka nende esitamise ainus p6hjus.
Edu kauplemises,
Kristjan -
Kristjan
maini siis kelle kommentaare jälgisid ka. -
Foorumite eesmärk ongi soovituslik, kui keegi teeb nendest reaalse rahaga järeldusi, siis on see tema risk. Tõepoolest võitudest on alati meeldivam rääkida, sama kehtib ka lhv pro asjade kohta, kui tuleb midagi head siis pasundatakse nii et jääb mulje - näed mis ma ütlesin :), kui läheb aga kehvasti siis hea kui mainitakse kuskil jutu keskel vaikselt. Aga see on inimlik, siin ei ole midagi teha.
