Börsipäev 27.-28. jaanuar - NOK, SNDK jt.
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Enne kell 13.00 laekuvaid Nokia tulemusi on Euroopas raporteerinud veel mitmed olulised tegijad ... mitmed neist lubavad teha ka oletusi Nokia suhtes ja viimane ongi päeva tippe tegemas ...
Philips (PHI) +4,35% ja Siemens (SIE) +1,41% peale häid tulemusi ...
Siemensi mobiilimüük samas 13,5M tükki varasema 15,2M tüki vastu
Deutsche Telekom (DTE) +1,11% peale 2004. aasta kliendinumbrite oodatust paremat kasvu ... lisaks pannakse kinni shorte strateegia raames, mis ootas nende interneti allüksuse T-Online aktsiate ostupakkumise hinna tõstmist, shorditi Deutsche Telekomi ja mindi pikaks T-Onlines (TOI) ...
AstraZeneca (AZN) +0,20% tulemuste eel, Deutsche Bank on eile kinnitanud oma ostusoovitust ...
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Kas mitte kell 15.00 ei laeku Nokia tulemused?
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Juba väljas :) Kergelt üle, aktsia €11.50 peal (60 senti üleval), numbrid nõuavad veel veidi seedimist.
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Nokia, 4Q 0,23 eur, käive 9,06mrd. oodatakse 0,12-0,15 eur, käive 7-7,3 mrd. Neljas kvartal k6vasti yle ootuste, marginaalid kosuvad, esimene kvartal in line.
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Ehk siis kvartalitulemused väga võimsalt üle, kuid prognoos võinuks tuleviku suhtes parem olla.
Nüüd siis veidi sõltub, kuidas Ameerika ärgates tulemusi hindab. -
Ma pigem usun, et järgmise paari päeva jooksul liigub Nokia nende tulemuste peale ülespoole.
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No protsentuaalselt on ju hästi kõvasti üle. Aktsia võiks reageerida äkilisemalt.
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Niisiis ootate et niii täna kui homme veel liiguks Nokia aktsia nende tulemuste peale ülespoole?
Tegelikult ma küsiks et kas Call optsioonide müümisega ei tasuks eriti kiirustada sest homme võibolla tõuseb veel? -
Mõned seotud aktsiad Soomes ...
Elcoteq +4,76%
Perlos +5,55% -
Straddle puhul pilt veidi keerulisem, sest kindel see järgmiste päevade tõus nüüd küll pole. Suurem osa tasuks ikka täna sulgeda.
USAs aktsiahinda vaadates on näha, et aktsia on alates eelmisest nädalast $15 juurest järsult alla tulnud, esimene suurem kukkumine oli QCOMi tulemuste peale, seega olid ootused ka Nokia suhtes pigem kesised. -
Muuseas, "USA-keeles" on Nokia numbrid isegi parema väljanägemisega:
06:49 NOK Nokia beats, guides Q1 revs above consensus (14.33 )
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.30 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.23; revenues rose 3.1% year/year to $11.83 bln vs the $10.69 bln consensus. Co sees EPS, ex items and coverted from euros, of $0.17-0.21 vs consensus of $0.18; sees Q1 revs, converted, of $9.135-9.53 bln, consensus $8.72 bln. -
Ja usast paistab veel tuge tulevat:)
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Eelturg alustab kell 14.00, aga eks reaalsem mõju ikka börsipäeva alguseks, kui analüütikud ka juba sõna võtnud.
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Miks ta ei võiks tõusta üle 12€ peale, kust ta nagu ilma põhjuseta (kui teate põhjust, võite panna jutumärkidesse) alla tuli.
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Ma siin arvutan... NOK veebriari call@15 (NOKBC) maksis eile 0.4. Kuna nyyd on asi rahas 0.4 EURi jagu siis saab hind olema kuskil 0.8 ? Voi see suur liikumine peaks volatiilsuse kaudu veel lisa panema? Et kuhukanti myygiordereid panna.
Ning mis samast@15 put-st saab? Enne maksis euro kanti, nyyd ei oska kohe arvutadagi |:)
Hinte? -
Rev Shark:
Battle Was Won, but War Still Looms
1/27/05 8:46 AM ET"The most dangerous moment comes with victory."
-- Napoleon Bonaparte
The bulls breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the market produced the best action so far this year. We had good breadth, strong volume, technology leadership and a strong close. There was little to find fault with during the day. So does that mean the worst is over and that we should be aggressive buyers? Does a couple of good days mean that the downtrend that started with the new year is now over?
Not at all. In fact, the market is probably more dangerous right now that it was a few days ago because we are tempted to be less cautious. We are able to knock out some good trades and suddenly all of the worry and concern of the past few weeks is forgotten.
We certainly had much better action but the technical damage from three weeks of poor action is substantial. It will take much more work for it be corrected and it won't happen without some difficulties along the way.
The bulls need to prove that yesterday was not just an anomaly. We must assume for now that it was a one-day wonder caused by oversold conditions and an overabundance of selling pressure. The market became too lopsided and needed to deal with that so the bears didn't become overconfident.
Yesterday's strong action relieved the oversold pressure and shook the bears up a bit but you can bet they are not ready to throw in the towel yet. They will be looking for entry points and unless the bulls can show some persistence, the bears can easily grab control of the market once again.
Ideally the bulls need to put in a follow-through day. Another good day on strong volume would show they are serious. They don't have to do that today but they need to hold the market steady and consolidate gains. If we fail to hold the lows of early this weak, that it going to be a major problem.
For the Nasdaq that level is 2008. That has to hold or the last two days are nothing more than a meaningless oversold bounce within a much bigger downtrend. All of the major indices have similar patterns and market participants will be poised to dump shares if that technical level is breached.
A steady, flat day would be ideal but we all know how Mr. Market feels about doing what we'd like him to do. So stay cautious and don't let recent gains slip away. In this hour of bullish victory the danger is even greater.
Durable good and unemployment claims are slightly better than expected and that has improved the early tone a bit. Overseas markets were slightly negative and oil has rebounded, which is keeping the early indications in check.
I had some technical problems this morning and am running behind. I'll be back with additional comments a little later.
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hint optsioonihindade arvutamisest saab siit
http://www.ivolatility.com/calc/?ticker=macr&R=0&top_lookup__is__sent=1 -
tiitp: Ideaalne! Tnx.
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Gapping Up
Gappng up on strong earnings/guidance: NETL +16%, DRIV +7.6%, RBAK +7%, NOK +6.8%, PLUM +6.8%, HRS +6.5%, JBLU +4.1%, AZN +4%, STTS +3.5%, AFFX +3.2%, SPRT +3%.... Other News: CALM +14% (highlighted as "naked short" play in WSJ), T +9% (WSJ says it's in talks to merge with SBC; also says BLS may acquire MCIP +4.5%), SNUS +10.4% (granted Orphan Drug designation), GMR +8.2% (initiates cash dividend policy; Morgan Stanley upgrade), ASML +3.8%, ADSX +3.5%, OSTK +2.2% (authorizes buyback program), BRCM +1.6% (Lehman upgrade).... Under $3: ICOR +40% (to study chemical warfare agent detection), VLGC +12% (says its eTAG system shows potential to predict treatment outcomes for colorectal cancer patients), SCLD +5.8% (wins contract).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: SWIR -36% (also Merrill and Piper downgrades; down in sympathy: NVTL -10%), WRLS -15%, CCMP -13%, VRSN -11%, RSAS -10%, AVCI -9.5%, JDSU -9% (also Sanders Morris downgrade), NAVR -9%, PHTN -8.4%, BSTE -7% (also Wachovia downgrade), PLCM -6.8%, GNSS -4.7%, CHIR -3.1%, AMGN -2%, SBUX -1.9%.... Other news: ASTM -7.5% (profit taking after recent momentum), TZOO -6% (registration statement declared effective), OPEN -5.6% (announces $125 mln convertible offering), RMBS -3% (prices convertible notes). -
Helsingis on Nokia tõusnud 7 %, USAs 2 %. Kas keegi oskab selgitada, millest selline vahe?
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No nii ei saa rallit soita. Portfellis on andmed veel eilsed. Kas keegi LHV omadest voiks korra vastava systeemi syytev6tit keerata?
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Nägite, kuidas kõik high short interest asjad nagu ühekorraga hüppasid? TZOO, NFLX, BLTI, TASR jne.
Selle taga on suure tõenäosusega see WSJ lugu:
CALM Cal-Maine Foods highlighted as "naked short" play in WSJ (11.40 )
The WSJ highlights Cal-Maine, which stock is favorite among short sellers, and is being carefully watched by fund managers concerned about new SEC rules governing certain short sales. Those rules may trigger forced short covering. Six months ago, the short interest in Cal-Maine stock amounted to 66% of the total shares that trade freely. Today, the short interest has risen to more than 85% of shares available to the public, according to research from Merrill Lynch. Fred Adams Jr., Cal-Maine's CEO, attributes the short interest to a planned secondary offering that was later canceled and adds that "the intent of the regulation will cause fewer shorts in the future." Mr. Adams and his family control 70% of the voting rights of Cal-Maine.
Väga profitable stuff, vähemalt täna hommikul.
sB -
Briefing.com sama teema kallal:
CRM Salesforce.com: with high short interest stocks spiking today on WSJ "naked short" article, watch for interest in CRM (13.72 -0.08)
Based on our January "Most Heavily Shorted Stocks" column, CRM is behind CALM +10% (which was the subject of the WSJ article today) and SFP -0.4% as one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market with approx. 58% of the float sold short. Also of interest is Ecost (ECST +0.8%), which has a 51% short-interest, and could see market interest in the event OSTK -0.03% posts a good qtr tonight... Other high short interst names of note include TASR +5% (56% of float); SCOX -1.1% (50% of float); BSTE -6.6% (49% of float); NVEC +0.5% (44% of float).
CRM on üks insane valuatsiooniga tarkvarafirma. Siiski on karud kuni siiani päris valusaid õppetunde tunda saanud.
sB -
Kes internetiärisse usub, neil tasub silma peal hoida taolisel fiemal nagu Tom Online (TOMO). Antud sektori firmade kohta on tegemist üllatavalt kasumliku ettevõttega, kes arvutimängude turul laieneb ka India suunal.TOMO on ka põhiline Skype maaletooja Hiinas.
EBAY languse taustal on ka TOMO pihta saanud, aga ilmselt liiga palju. Igal juhul hea võimalus põrkeks:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=tomo,uu[l,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Lb14!Lc20]&pref=G -
SNDK järelturul tulemuste peale +17%, $22.5 straddle kasum peaks algama aktsiahinna $25.5 juurest. Hetkel aktsia $26 peal.
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Ma katsin kolmandiku positsioonist järelturul $26.60 pealt aktsiaid shortides.
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Sandiski (SNDK) tulemused olid siis tõesti suurepärased, kuid tõrvana meepotis mõjusid prognoosid - ettevõte teatas, et ta neid enam ei avalda, kuna määramatus on liiga suur. Esimese reaktsioonina tuli aktsia järelturul selle peale $26.70 juurest $24.60 juurde, kuid suutis siiskijärelturul $26 peal lõpetada. Täpsemalt mõtteid enne avanemist LHV Pro all.
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Kuid veel üks huvitav seik SNDK kohta:
Paar päeva enne tulemusi alandas CIBC analüütik Daniel Gelbtuch SNDK reitingut, põhjuseks oli siis Lexari (LEXR) kasumihoiatus ning aktsia kauples siis $21 juures. Ma olen alati paar päeva enne tulemusi reitingu muutmisi pidanud selliseks mõttetuks kasiinoks - eelkõige üritatakse sellega kuulsust saada - kui täppi läheb, siis märgitakse sind igal pool ära.
No igatahes pani Daniel täiega mööda. Kuid conference callil alustas Daniel oma juttu lausega "excellent quarter". Milline meelemuutus kahe päevaga.
Loo moraal - analüütikute arvamusi ei tohiks oma rahapaigutuste aluseks eriti võtta. -
Rev Shark:
"I run on the road, long before I dance under the lights."
-- Muhammad Ali
Yesterday the market did some of the necessary work it needs to do if it is going to move higher in the near future. After the good job it did on Wednesday it was important that the bulls not flip for quick profits and send the market back down. They did a nice job of hanging on to the majority of gains Thursday and even managed a strong close, which is a positive sign.
The last few days have seen the best action so far in 2005 but we aren't out of the woods yet. It could easily turn into just a brief respite before a continuation of the nasty downtend. The bulls don't have to make a quick move; they can afford to wait but they have to stay out of danger.
The situation is much like the Ali-Foreman "Rumble in the Jungle" fight. Ali knew how powerful and dangerous Foreman could be. If he confronted him head-on too early, he risked suffering some painful damage that would put him at a severe disadvantage. Ali knew that he needed to bide his time and tire out his opponent. He employed his now famous "rope-a-dope" strategy. He leaned back against the ropes our of harm's way and let Foreman flail away.
Late in the match Ali was unscathed and Foreman had sapped his strength. That is when Ali went to work and won the match. The bulls need to employ a similar strategy. They have to build up their energy while the bears deplete theirs. If the bulls can hang tough for a few rounds, their chances of taking control of the market are much higher.
The worst thing the bulls can do right now is to try to move out too quickly. The bears still have plenty of juice and if the bulls are overanxious they run a big risk of a knock-out punch. A big move that fails would put the bears in control of the market.
We have some interesting cross-currents this morning. The headline news is that Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE) is buying Gillette (G:NYSE). A huge merger like that means that at least someone with a lot of capital is finding "value" in this market. That should see some sympathetic action in the consumer products sector. Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) earnings were sold and there were some other good reports from technology stocks that are helping matters.
The big unknown that is likely to affect us as the day progresses is the Iraqi election this weekend. There is substantial headline risk if insurgents are successful in disrupting the process. Market participants are likely to be a bit cautious about holding over the weekend as a result. However, if the election does succeed without too much chaos it will be a market positive.
I'd like to see the bulls do a little more rope-a-dope today. Another fairly sedate day would set us up nicely for upside next week, especially if the Iraqi elections turn out OK. Early action is just slightly positive and that is good.
Overseas markets were mixed last night. Oil is down a bit and the news flow is generally positive. It should be an interesting day.
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Ühe treideri kommentaar:
OK... I admit it.. I am bored.. As a momentum guy I like to make my money in the first hour and then go hit golf balls.. Most of the action today was with OSTK which we played around 55 with a target of a slowwww 58.. MSFT is failing to lift much, which is a negative signal for the overall techy crowd.. The momentum lately has been slow to develope which makes me a bit edgy.. Time to head for starbucks for some anti-nod!!! -
Täitsa OK päev reede kohta, rida reitingumänge.
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Paistab, et flash mälud astuvad uue sammu läpakate territooriumile.
Reuters kirjutab:
MUNICH, Germany (Reuters) - Fujitsu-Siemens Computers will start selling laptops with flash memory instead of hard drives this summer, bringing faster, lighter and more energy-efficient computers to the European mass market.
Läpakas maksab 500,- EUR. Minu jaoks uudis. Tõenäoliselt IT meestele habemega. :)
link
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKL1181297720070711?rpc=44
