Börsipäev 18. veebruar

18.02.2005 15:56

Cody Willard:

Coincidental Resistance
2/18/05 8:40 AM ET

The Nasdaq failed almost exactly to the digit at its 50 day moving average. Coincidence?

Here's something you won't read just about anywhere else - yes. I think it's a coincidence that the Nasdaq turned nasty at that so-called (so-called so-called?)resistance. Think about it this way: If the Nazz had busted through the 50 day moving average, we'd all have read about how it had "cleared the hurdle". If it'd stopped and bounced right around 50 day moving average, we'd have heard how it was "bumping into resistance". But since it hit the 50 day moving average and immediately sold off - well, now we read about how it "failed at resistance".

As a matter of fact, one can always find new ways of technically analyzing the markets to "explain" the action. That's why all those billions of dollars are spent on software programs that draw 20 or 50 (or whatever other day) simple or moving (or some other variation) day averages on this, that or the other index. Or to draw those lines from one place to another on some important stock that's supposedly a "tell" for the rest of the market.

You have to wonder though - does the cut-throat world of capitalism really reward such activity?

At any rate, the Nasdaq failed at its 50 day moving average. Did I mention that already?

The close yesterday was particularly ugly as the downward momentum escalated into the close. Beyond a few outperformers such as Apple and F5 , tech has been hard hit this year. Small-cap, high-beta names like Charter and Finisar have just been trashed and thrashed for weeks on end. There's been an obvious rotation to high-priced momentum names and out of low-priced beta names. That rotation will end when it ends, if you know what I mean.

In the meantime, I'm still waiting for a better set up to get terribly aggressive either on the long or the short side outside of some individual stock set ups that I like, including MRV Communications and Tekelec .

Here's a good way to start off this Friday after a long, hard week. Back with more soon.

Net long AAPL, FFIV, FNSR, MRVC, TKLC

Gary B. Smith:

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

18.02.2005 16:09

Mohhammed

Gary B. Smithi kommentaar ka AAPL kohta

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

18.02.2005 16:17

arkok

Gapping Up

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CRM +10.7%, NVDA +8.5%, AEIS +10.3% (also CIBC upgrade), AKAM +10%, CRYP +8.6%, TOPT +7.6%, VCLK +7.1%, MDRX +6.5%, PCLN +5.3%.... Other News: TIVO +10.8% (reaches 3 mln subs), PRM +8.6% (co's about.com to be sold to NYT), PKZ +6.6% (CIBC says co could have nearly $10/sh in cash by year-end), MAY +5.5% (FD resumes its takeover talks with May - WSJ), GRU +5.5%, SIGM +5% (started with an Outperform at Baird; tgt $20), MCIP +4.3% (Qwest plans revised offer for MCIP), MRK +3.8% (may return Vioxx to market), SINA +3.7%, FWHT +3.5% (London's The Sun newspaper chooses co's espotting.com over Google for paid listings - Forbes), TZOO +2.9%, SNIC +2.7% (added to JP Morgan's Focus List; tgt $21)... Under $3: SYNC +12.3% (posts largest non-GAAP profit in over 5 yrs).

Gapping Down

Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: NTGR -9.6%, ADIC -9.3% (also Bear Stearns downgrade), RAE -7%, ISNS -7%, INTU -1.9%, Other News: NTEC -7.6% (prices offering at $4/sh), DSCO -5.2% (stock offering), LGF -3.7% (announces convertible offering), CTIC -2.5% (profit taking from 12% move yesterday), BBY -1.1% (Goldman downgrade).

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18.02.2005 16:52

jim

Kuigi ise realmoneyt eriti ei jälgi, on tore näha, et Cody Willard TKLC suhtes samal arvamusel on.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

18.02.2005 17:34

kristjan.lepik

UBS tõstis NVDA reitingut Neutrali pealt Buy peale.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

18.02.2005 18:04

kristjan.lepik

CRM - mitte nii võimsalt kui PNRA, kuid squeeze siiski.