Börsipäev 18. märts
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Gapping Up
ISON +14% (co's homeland security division signs technology agreement w/ Russian nuclear research institution), BIVN +11% (co says to report important Clofarabine Clinical update), USEG +9% (mentioned as an Unusual Volume name yesterday, continues run this morning), COMS +6.7% (earnings upside), OMNI +5.9% (small-cap oil name continues to find momentum interest), MSTR +5.6% (Smith Barney upgrade), AAPL +3.2% (Morgan Stanley upgrade), SNDK +2% (UBS starts coverage with $40 price tgt).
Gapping Down
CAMD -18% (downgraded after disappointing guidance), GSOL -13.5% announces offering well below current price), RSH -8% (warns this morning, downgraded), PLMO -7.8% (guides below consensus), LWSN -2.4% (reports earnings), ATAC -1.8% (prices 6.25 mln share offering by holders at $14.85), RETK -1.7% (Oracle counter-offer does not come in as high as market expected), RIMM -0.9% (in sympathy with PLMO), ORCL -1.6% (CFO departs for BE), QCOM -0.5% (hearing newsletter out with bearish comment; also may be hurt by RSH warning). -
Oracle tegigi uue pakkumise, kuid madalama kui turg ootas. Retek üle 2% miinuses $11,40 tasemel, Oracle uus pakkumine $11.25 juures.
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Rev Shark:
All Else Are Sideshows to Oil and Interest Rates
3/18/05 8:37 AM ET"Put your trust in God and keep your powder dry."
-- Oliver Cromwell
The most important thing investors can do right now is to be very slow to trust the upside in this market. You will enticed and cajoled and tempted to believe that the worst is over and that it's time to put your precious cash to work, but we need this market to earn our trust before we act. Faith and hope are very dangerous at this point. We should not quickly accept that the market is going to start shrugging off record high oil prices and increasing interest rates. We need some solid proof that conditions are changing before acting.
Many investors, including me, have a natural inclination to be bullish. They want the soft periods to end as quickly as possible so they can load up and be aggressively long. Unfortunately, that desire sometimes impairs the ability to be truly objective when weighing the market. We dig too deep and are too generous when it comes to trusting in the bullish argument.
The most important thing to remember is that if you miss the first day of a market turn it isn't going to make that big of a difference. In most cases being cautious and less anticipatory in looking for a turn will keep you safer as the prevailing trend continues, and the overanxious bulls looking for a reversal find themselves sucked into a dead-cat bounce.
I guarantee that we will be hearing from folks who will tell us why oil is about to end its rise and why we need to rush in and put our cash to work before the market runs away without us. Don't listen to them. Wait for some hard proof. What we have going on in this market right now is a dead cat bounce. It may develop into something further but that is not the way to bet.
Today is likely to be particularly confusing because we have quadruple option expiry plus a major rebalancing of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is switching from using a capitalization-weighted formula to a "free float" formula. This means stocks that have a lot of shares that are held by insiders, and thus aren't freely traded, will have their weight in the S&P 500 reduced. The major example is Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE), in which family members hold big stakes they can't readily trade.
We should see some unusual action today, especially at the close, as this reweighting is done by the big index funds. Don't read much into it. Stay focused on the big trends affecting this market now: oil and interest rates. They will determine our direction in the longer run.
We have a bit of a bounce this morning as the dollar strengthens and oil stabilizes. Overseas markets were perky and the tone is pretty upbeat to start the day. Consumer confidence readings are coming and that should cause a tremor or two.
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Ühe hea analüütiku comment: Look at CCJ. Is seems like Uranium is the next hot commodity.
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Aga minul jäi börsipäev 18 meelde sellega, et autol sai kütus otsa ja härra Lõhmus aitas seda tee pealt eest ära lükata. Rahulolev LHV klient:)
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Kuidas on võimalik, et kütus otsa sai :)?
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USU on veel üks Uranium-play.
(kindlasti mitte võtta soovitusena).
