Börsipäev 28. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tore, mina olen ka karune!
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Ma ei ole uudiseid otsinud, aga kas streik Soomes pani puidufirmade aktsiad tõusma?
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Q1 USA GDP oli +3.1%, ootused olid +3.5% juures. Kuid viimastel päevadel olid ootused tegelikult madalamale tulnud, kuid +3.1% number ikkagi nigel. Turg kerges miinuses, dollar kergelt üles. Muret tekitab inflatsiooni peegeldav GDP osa, mis oli oodatust kõrgem.
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Rev Shark:
Some Reasons to Start Thinking 'Turn'
4/28/05 8:35 AM ET"Change your thoughts, and you change your world."
-- Norman Vincent Peale
The market has been basing for about two weeks now after hitting a low on April 15. During this time I have been continually reminding you that there is no reason to anticipate a change in the character of the market. My advice has been to wait for the market to show some clear signs that a change is occurring rather than anticipate and hope for one to occur.
I'm becoming increasingly optimistic that we are approaching a tradable turning point in the market. That doesn't mean I'm throwing caution to the wind and loading up with long positions; it means that I'm adjusting my thinking and preparing to take action If things continue to develop in the present manner.
Here are some of the signs that indicate to me that we are nearing a turning point.
First is the longer-term technical action. We have been basing for almost two weeks now. Corrections require both time and degree, and the time period is now approaching a reasonable level where a sufficient amount of stock has exchanged hands and should now be held by less worried investors. Furthermore, the first attempt at a bounce was turned back but we did not collapse. The bounce failure serves to wash out overanxious bulls and gives us better support.
Second is the shorter-term technical action. Yesterday was not a great day for the market but there were some encouraging signs. Volume improved as the market reversed off lows and closed positive; breadth was weak but that is the sort of reversal that signals nascent buying interest; additionally, the market rallied before it pulled all the way back to the April 15 lows. A rally off higher lows is a signal that buyers are a bit worried that they don't have much time left to catch the bottom.
A third promising development is better action in interest rate sensitive sectors such as mortgage lenders, title insurers and home builders. The key issue for the market right now is how hawkish the Fed will be in combating inflation. Better action in these groups may be an indication that the market believes the Fed may be tempering its approach.
Fourth, stocks with good earnings reports are acting well. There is buying interesting in the companies that are producing good numbers and issuing positive guidance.
Finally, the defensive groups that have been leaders such as steels/metal and oils are being pounded. Crude oil continues to falter and that is a very good sign. A healthy market is led by technology and financials, not by defensive stocks.
At first glance the GDP looks a bit disappointing. The growth is lower than expected at 3.1% vs. 3.5% consensus but the real problem is that the deflator is significantly higher than expected at 3.2% vs. consensus of 2.1%. Inflation is this market's biggest enemy right now.
Gary B. Smith:
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Täna hommikul on suures miinuses lastetoitudele lisandeid tootev Martek Biosciences Corp (MATK), mis kõigile suureks üllatuseks alandas selle aasta käibeprognoosi. Varem peeti firma suurimaks probleemiks nõudluse rahuldamist ning käibe alandamist ei osanud keegi ette näha. Oleme ise ka ettevõtet jälginud ning tundub imelik, et hoiatus aetakse ühe suure kliendi kaela, kes olevat varem sisse ostnud liiga suure koguse varusid. Kuna ettevõtte ärimudel meile ikka meeldib, siis oleme valmis klientidele positsiooni soetama, kuid seda alles 15-20 juurest ehk ettevõtte väärtus võiks olla ca $650 mln.
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Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: WVCM +31%, IIG +18%, ONNN +10%, ELN +7.5%, SIRI +5%, ISSX +4.7%, SBUX +4.5% (also Goldman upgrade), PMTI +3.9%, DOW +3.4%, LEND +2.6%, SWKS +2.3%... Other News: GSK +6.4% (co and SkyePharma ink deal for Paxil), IMGN +4.8% (Genentech licenses technology), LEXR +3.5% (settlement and/or buyout coming? - CIBC).... Under $3: AVN +9.4% (announces collaboration), CIEN +6.9% (named the preferred supplier for British Telecom's 21st Century Network project).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: MATK -44%, MRVC -31%, SERO -16%, INPC -14%, PRX -12%, ESST -11%, ORCH -7%, JDSU -6.7% (down in sympathy: SONS -7%), USPI -6.6%, SANM -5.6%, BOBJ -5.2%, CHIR -4.4%, STM -3%, DRIV -2.6%, Other News: BRCD -11% (cut to sell by Merrill), ASML -4.9%, TOPT -4.7% (announces private offering), BHP -2.8%. -
See MATK on veidi kripeldamas.
Nimelt on lähipäevil tulemas kohtuotsus ettevõtte suhtes, konkurendid on kaevanud ühe nende müügiloa peale. Üsna närviline aktsia, mis võinuks selle uudise peale liikuda küll. Kaalusin eile päris pikalt, kas võtta paariks päevaks straddle, kuid kuna straddle maksis $6.15, siis kartsin, et nii palju aktsia ikkagi ei liigu.
Täna oleks selle straddle eest saanud peaaegu $30.00.
Oleksitega muidugi turul ei tasu arvestada, iga päev on sadu kasutamata teenimisvõimalusi, kuid kui ikka väga vähe jäi tehingu teostamisest puudu, siis vaatad seda kukkumist veidi teise pilguga. -
Well, aga see ei liikunud ju kohtuotsuse peale. Hoiatada võib suvaline firma suvalisel ajal. mu meelest tasuks kripeldada ainult juhul kui liikumine otsuse peale olnuks oodatust suurem.
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Seda küll, kuid kui näpp on juba ostunupu peal, siis veidi kripeldab ikka. 500% tootlus ikkagi.
Aga pikalt pole mõtet teenimata kasumit mõõta, pigem uusi võimalusi otsida. -
aiaiai kui kole päev. Nüüd siis napilt AloV postituses äratoodud toetuse peal. Mida peale sellest allapoole langemist reaalselt "market killerist" oodata?
B. -
Microsoft väljas:
revenue of $9.62 billion vs oodatud 9.816
Net income $2.56 billion and $0.23 per share, which included $0.05 of legal charges vs oodatud 0.32 -
MSFT kummaliste tulemustega - esimene pilk tundus väga hull, kuid EPS polnud päris üks-ühele võrreldav. Praegu hakkab miinusest nulli tagasi jõudma.
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APCC üksjagu keskpäraste tulemustega. Eelmistele tulemustele sarnast liikumist vist pole oodata?
Kas keegi conference-calli kuulas? Mis mulje jäi? Ise jäin uniseks enne seda. -
MATK Martek Biosci European ARA patent Upheld; Scope of Claims Narrowed (32.49 )
Martek Biosciences Corporation announced today that the Opposition Division of the European Patent Office has upheld the Company's European arachidonic acid (ARA) oil patent in a form containing modified claims which are narrower than the claims originally granted. Martek indicated that the patent remains an important part of the Company's intellectual property portfolio. The modified claims of the patent relate to fungal ARA oil from Martek's strain in infant formulas free of EPA, providing Martek with valuable precedent for expanding its ARA patent coverage in Europe. Martek believes it is likely that the opponents of the patent will appeal the decision.
