Börsipäev 19. september
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Rev Shark:
Guessing Games Ahead of the Fed
9/19/2005 8:56 AM EDT
"Always be nice to bankers. Always be nice to pension fund managers. Always be nice to the media. In that order."-- John Gotti
The question we confront this week is whether the central bankers will be friendly to the stock market. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is schedule to release its interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EDT Tuesday. That decision and the accompanying policy statement are likely to determine the short-term direction of the market.
The FOMC is faced with an interesting conundrum. On one hand Hurricane Katrina will have a negative effect on jobs, retail sales and consumer sentiment, but on the other hand it helps create inflationary pressure as far as oil, lumber and the federal deficit -- the bigger the deficit the more money the government has to borrow, driving up rate pressures.
The FOMC is subject to certain political pressures and probably does not want to be seen as indifferent to the problems of the Gulf Coast, but it has always made quite clear that fighting inflation is its top priority.
At the moment that market is anticipating that the FOMC will hike rates once again but there is a vocal minority that is convinced a pause is the more likely action. Even if another hike is forthcoming it is the accompanying policy statement that will determine the market reaction. If the FOMC finally signals that the end of the interest rate hike campaign is near, the market is likely to react favorable. However, if it raises rates and continues with the murky, inconclusive language about what the future will hold, the market is likely to be disappointed.
Although the market would probably react favorably to a pause by the FOMC, the problem is that it is a tacit admission that the economy is in enough trouble that inflation is only a secondary concern. The stock market is generally more sensitive to interest rates than the broad economy but there are still plenty of negative consequences when the economy is slow.
Until we find out what that decision is on Tuesday afternoon the market will be driven by guessing games. Market participants are often an optimistic group and I would not be at all surprised to see some strength in front of the decision. But if the bulls get too over-anxious it could be a set up for a reversal if the Fed isn't as market-friendly as they hope.
We have a strong move up in oil and gold to start the week. Asian markets were closed for holidays, and European markets are unsettled as the German election remains unresolved.
Gary B. Smith:
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Gapping Up
SKE +33% (to be acquired by NHY), TBCC +32% (to be acquired by Sumitomo), NKE +6% (reports AugQ), VEXP +31% (transforms workforce to be more entrepreneurial), CSE +23% (converts to REIT status, guides), SPOR +16% (extends Friday's 56% move), HOKU +15% (extends Friday's 30% move), WFR +11% (mentioned in Barron's; tgt raised to $24 at Deutsche), TMR +9%, FLT +28%, SPM +6% (seeks sale of its sale of its Network Products division), CPN +5.6% (should trade 40% higher -- Barron's), ESLR +5.5% (Barron's mention), WVCM +5% (recent momentum), FDO +4.5%, RUTH +4.4% (multiple initiations), ABS +3.9% (Tesco considers $7.6 bln bid for Albertsons - Reuters), STEM +4% (files IND amendment with FDA), ABLE +3.7% (momentum), CTX +2.7% (sells its UK home building biz), CHK +2.6% (to acquire 19.9% of Gastar Exploration), SYK +1% (Merrill upgrade)... Gold stocks continue recent momentum: HMY +9%, CDE +5%, GFI +5%, NEM +2.2%... Under $3: DAL +12% (receives interim court approval for post-petition financing), GNTA +12% (leukemia drug shows lower risk of relapse), NXG +12%.
Gapping Down
CTIB -26% (co says there is no news to justify recent trading activity), VIAC -22% (suspends enrollment in clinical trial), OSTK -5.5% (Legg Mason downgrade), CAV -4.2% (Avondale downgrade), ILSE -4.2% (Wachovia downgrade), ZRAN -3.7%, BBI -3.4% (negative WSJ article), MSTR -2.4% (Pac Growth downgrade), AMHC -2.4%, EBAY -1.6% (Bear Stearns downgrade)... German stocks lower on election result: DCX -3%, SAP -1.6%. -
Pro idee FLWS täna üle +11% ...
KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald upgraded 1-800-FLOWERS FLWS Buy » Aggressive Buy target $10.50
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Usun SNRR üllatab veel sellel nädalal.
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APOL liugleb nagu lepase reega mäest alla, varsti hea positsioon võtta.
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SNRR-il veel selles kuus 3 kohtumist investoritega. Eks sealt see lootuski üllatuseks. Ise ei jätnud asja juhuse hooleks. Nüüd kontol järgi vaid $.75. Kui LHV septembrikuu PRO tasu ära korjab, siis tuleb vist intressi maksma hakata.
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mina seda järgmise poole tunni jooksul küll ei teeks.
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üks foorumites neetud portaal on http://www.buyhigh.net/ .pole sisse loginud kuid esilehe aktsiad neil tõesti liiguvad soovituste suunas.
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Tradingloom märkus käib siis APOL positsiooni võtmise kohta ...
APOL Earnings Conference Call: (877)292-6888 on Sep 19 2005 11:00AM -
Correct, APOL järsult allapoole.
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Ja juba enne kella 11 läks APOL lolliks :) 2 minuti jooksul vahemikus 74.30 -> 71.85...
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Nafta +5%, rõhub turgu.
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APOL short tootis hästi, tänud henryhenryle ...
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Võta heaks, mul kogemata!
