Börsipäev 22. september
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Rev Shark:
Traders Price In the Worst on Rita
9/22/2005 9:02 AM EDT"The world isn't interested in the storms you encountered, but whether or not you brought in the ship."
-- Raul Armesto
Many investors make the mistake of thinking that their primary job is to produce a good return on their capital. They are wrong. Your first and foremost goal is to protect your capital, because it is your capital that allows you to do your job in the first place. An investor with badly impaired capital is no better than a sea captain with a sinking ship.
If you take action to keep your capital safe when the market is struggling like it is now, it is amazing how fast you can have your portfolio at new highs once things improve. Big drawdowns in your capital are a huge handicap. Not only do they require much effort to overcome, they are psychologically debilitating. It is downright depressing to watch months of hard work disappear in a few days because of the vagaries of the weather, the Fed or some other uncontrollable force.
Make sure you respect the fact that the market is now in a nasty downtrend. The technical action yesterday was textbook ugly. A big pullback on increased volume and poor breadth is the sort of thing that usually leads to more selling fairly quickly.
The one big positive we have now is that very few investors are anxious to buy stocks as one of the most powerful hurricanes in history is heading for one of the largest cities in America and the key oil-producing area of the Gulf of Mexico. There is nothing good about that story and the only hope the bottom fishers have right now is that the market is overcompensating for the expected bad news that will hit this weekend.
The big problem right now is that we really have no idea how much damage this storm may due to energy prices and the overall economy. Certainly we are better prepared to deal with it after the Katrina disaster but in the bigger scheme of things the overall market reaction is still very mild.
Weekly unemployment claims were better than expected but have spiked up 105,000 in the past two weeks. Last week's numbers were revised sharply higher. The jump in these numbers are obviously hurricane-related and we have to wonder what Rita will do once it hits.
The biggest positive this market has going for it is that there is absolutely no reason to be a big buyer. That is going to set up the chance of a good bounce next week if things aren't as bad as many think. We are pricing in some major negatives right now and sooner or later the sellers aren't going to have much more they want to sell.
Oil is up strongly this morning as is gold. Overseas markets are weak and we are off to a negative start.
Gary B. Smith:
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Pärast mõningast pausi on täna tehnoloogiasektorist taas majandustulemusi oodata.
Pärast turgude sulgemist tulevad Oracle (ORCL), 3Com (COMS) ja Palm (PALM).
Järgmisel nädalal lisanduvad suurematest nimedest veel Jabil Circuit (JBL), Red Hat (RHAT) ja Micron (MU). -
mis nüüd juhtus ?
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parasjagu negatiivsust, selle peale põrge. eks paistab, kuidas jõudu.
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Kriatjan RHAT oleks olnud eht hea Straddle kandidaat? Enne tulemusi on volatiilsus alati tõusnud. Nii ka seekord. Enamasti on RHAT peale tulemuste avaldamist ka kenasti liikunud. Kuna aktsia on alates viimati avaldatud majandustulemustest tublisti tõusnud, siis on ootused kõrged, mis omakorda loob küllaltki head eeldused liikumiseks alla.
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2 USD peaks RHAT liikuma, mida on selle aktsia kohta päris palju. Ma ei panustaks.
Küll aga täna tulemustega PALM, mis reeglina üsna närviliselt liikunud. Volatiilsus ka päris korralik, kuid see tundub ideena parem. -
Nõus, praegu on positsiooni soetamiseks tõepoolest pisut hilja, aga volatiilsust oleks võinud ju osta? Vaatame detsembris.
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Realmoney.com James Altucheri artikkel QQQQ tradingvõimalusest oli väga hea, long 38.39 out 38.66 ( too early ilmselt)
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Seekord ta veel rääkis kenasti, kuidas tuleb aga juurde võtta kui Qd peaks veel langema. 38.25-ni saigi võtta ja siis laksas ära :)
Reeglite järgi peaks küll nüüd alles close'i ootama, aga kes suurelt teeb, siis sellel oli täna hea võimalus. -
Altucher:
I've been writing about the QQQQ Crash system since early 2003.
The basic idea is that if the QQQQs, the volatile ETF representing the Nasdaq 100 index, make a sharp move down, then mean reversion will eventually kick in and bring the index back up. In other words, whenever people are panicking, that's the time to get in. The move is not always a huge move but it's been reliable.
When I first wrote about the system in May 2003, it had triggered 40 times in the history of the QQQQs and had resulted in 40 successful trades for an average return of 2.55% per trade. The crash trade has triggered 16 times since then, and it is now up to 56 out of 56 successful trades with an average return of 1.81% return per trade. The success has kept up but because of the lower volatility of the markets, the average return has gone down.
The specific rules are:
Buy when the price of Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQQ:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) closes 1.5 standard deviations below the 10-day moving average of the low price of each day. To calculate this, you can use the lower Bollinger Band using a 10-day moving average, 1.5 standard deviations and the price series of the lows of each day.
Sell at either a loss after 20 days or on any day that the QQQQ closes higher than the entry.
At the close Wednesday, the lower Bollinger band (1.5 standard deviations below the 10-day moving average) hit $38.62, and the QQQQs closed below that, at 38.50, triggering the system for a buy at the open today. In the chart below, the green line represents the lower Bollinger band.
The way I would play this now is to leg into it. Take a partial position at the entry price and then average down if the trade lasts for more than one day.
If the QQQQs close higher than the entry on day one then so be it. Take the profit and go on to the next trade. If the QQQQs close lower, then start to take a more full position and get a better average price than the system price. -
Nasdaq läks alla 2100 toetust.
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Delli target pandi isegi 51 USD peale, õige aeg ostma hakata
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Robert W. Baird, mitte kõige suurem maja :)
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seda küll, aga medium target 45 USD, minu jaoks igal juhul ostukoht
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Baird alustas täna DELLi neutraliga hoopiski ju, target $39. Baird on tier 2 maja.
$51 targetiga oli täna väljas hoopis pisike research majake Moors & Cabbot. -
PALM prelim $0.41 vs $0.37 Reuters consensus; revs $342.2 mln vs $339.71 mln Reuters consensus
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Ülalmainitud PALMi straddle toimis väga ilusasti - ca. +25% tootlust saab täna võtta. Tulemused nii koledad polnudki, kuid PALM suure kukkumisega näitab oma "liikujaloomust".
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PALM pakkus tanasel jarelturul neile, kes veel nadalavahetust polnud pidama lainud, paris head teenimisvoimalust:
CNBC reports that MSFT Chairman Bill Gates will join executives of PALM and Verizon Wireless on Monday morning, in classic case of "my enemy's enemy is my friend," MSFT appears to burying the hatchet with its formal rival, teaming up with PALM to take on RIMM.. The two will unveil a new version of the Treo Smartphone. The new device will be offered first by Verizon Wireless. CNBC reporter adds that this promises to be a nervous weekend for the folks at RIMM and their investors.
Esmaspaev tuleb ponev, kell 12 ET hakkab pressikas.
