Börsipäev 23. november- pikk nädalalõpp saabumas
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Rav Shark:
In a Divine Market, Selling Isn't a Sin
11/23/2005 8:48 AM EST"Managing is like holding a dove in your hand. Squeeze too hard and you kill it, not hard enough and it flies away."
-- Tommy Lasorda
Having an opinion about where the market is headed doesn't relieve us of the obligation of managing our portfolio. An easy mistake to make is to think that because you are bullish, you simply put your money in the market and sit back while things run higher.
Although that may work well in some cases, superior returns require more active management. Even in the strongest markets you will want to do some selling and take profits. It isn't easy to decide what and when to sell when a market looks as good as this one. If you hold on to your positions too tightly you risk giving back some big returns when the market corrects, but if you let go too soon you risk being left out of further upside.
You don't have to be bearish about the market to do some selling, and there is nothing that precludes you from buying new positions and staying long. It simply is good money management to have a system to lock in gains when some of your holdings become extended.
In a strong market it is easy to worry more about being left out than it is to worry about protecting what you already have. We want to enjoy every last penny of a strong run, so you hang on to stocks that are becoming more and more risky, and they elevate.
Selling and being bullish are not mutually exclusive actions. In fact, I often find myself selling when I am highly bullish simply because I believe that there will be better ways to take advantage of the market upside.
Yesterday afternoon was one of those times I felt that the prudent thing to do was to sell into the strength. Not because I think this rally is ready to top out, but because I believe the market is going to give us an opportunity to redeploy capital in stocks that have better upside potential than some of the extended issues I was holding.
Despite many gurus' claims, stock market success requires much more than simply having the correct bullish or bearish bias. Above average results require effective management regardless of your opinion about the market. Being long in a bull market doesn't mean you sit and do nothing.
We have a mixed start as traders begin to wind down in front of the holiday. We are closed tomorrow and then have trading until 1 p.m. EST on Friday. Oil and gold are trading down and overseas markets are up just slightly.
Gary B. Smith:
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Banc of America raises their Microsoft (MSFT 27.91) tgt to $31 from $28 using a slightly higher target multiple given their confidence in its new product launch outlook; they note their higher confidence around the launch of its Server products
Legg Mason downgrades Forward Air (FWRD 40.77), Burlington Northern (BNI 66.33), Heartland Express (HTLD 22.15) to Hold from Buy, all on valuation
Lehman in Europe upgrades Alcatel (ALA 12.18) to Equal-Weight from Underweight; in the next 6 months firm sees a risk of further network migration announcements by operators, and they expect these contracts to favour Alcatel
Banc of America upgrades Aeropostale (ARO 22.80) to Buy from Neutral and raises their tgt to $27 from $23, saying current valuation largely accounts for near-term risks
Lehman in Europe downgrades Deutsche TeleKom (DT 16.95) to Equal-Weight from Overweight on valuation
Bear Stearns notes that data indicates that Google (GOOG 416.47) gained mkt share from every major search provider except Ask Jeeves as it continues to dominate online search
Lehman downgrades Anheuser-Busch (BUD) to Equal-Weight from Overweight. Although Street sentiment is extraordinarily bearish, firm says the very stretched valuation, challenging intermediate term profit outlook, and uncertain strategic direction gives them pause -- especially given the surprising strength in the stock since reporting very disappointing Q3 results
Piper Jaffray cuts their tgt on Research In Motion (RIMM) to $59 from $61 after the co lowered subscriber guidance. While the co maintained its rev guidance for Q3-Q4, firm remains cautious as the rev mix continues shifting towards device sales, and they expect increasing pricing and margin pressure on its device sales during CY06. Also, wth the ongoing NTP-related litigation continuing to raise concerns of interrupted BlackBerry sales in the U.S., firm continues to believe the two parties could settle their dispute in the very near future, and they believe the two parties will likely settle at some one-time amount greater than $450 mln
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Intel on hulluks läinud;)
Graafik näitab juba, et on oi-oi üleostetud...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=intc,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G -
Inteli Nov Call läks vett vedama, aga uut ei saanud võtta. Kolm korda arvata on vist liiast, et miks...
Paneb vanduma. -
Igaks juhuks väike eelteave - USA turud on neljapäeval suletud - Tänupühad ning reedel on aktsiaturgudel kauplemine lühendatud ehk see toimub kella 20.00-ni.
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Kui mäletate siis mai kuus liikus Intel umbes kuu aega praktiliselt ilma ühegi langus päevata üles.
