Börsipäev 29. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Gary B. Smith:
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UBS downgrades Qwest (Q 5.19) to Neutral from Buy on valuation
UBS downgrades Pier 1 Imports (PIR 13.36) to Reduce form Neutral on valuation
JMP Securities downgrades NVIDIA (NVDA 37.88) to Mkt Perform from Outperform on valuation
UBS downgrades Bellsouth (BLS 27.84) to Neutral from Buy and cuts their tgt to $30 from $31, as they believe the co's wireline business will face continued margin declines in 2006, driven by increasing competition in local service from alternative providers
Goldman Sachs upgrades Seagate (STX 17.61) to In-Line from Underperform, citing more seasonally normal enterprise demand, slightly better desktop pricing, continuing notebook strength, and some help from DVR/PVRs and Xbox
Morgan Stanley upgrades Fannie Mae (FNM) to Overweight from Equal-weight as co should be able to regain market share
JP Morgan adds US Steel (X 42.49) to its Focus List and sets a $77 tgt based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis
Citigroup initiates Salesforce.com (CRM 31.23) with an Hold and $33 tgt, saying the stock seems fully valued
Majandusandmed:
Durable Orders +3.4% vs +1.5% consensus
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Rev Shark:
Arming Yourself for the Market Wars
11/29/2005 9:00 AM EST"All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved."
-- Sun Tzu
With the market finally showing some signs of a pause after a big run, it is a particularly good time to contemplate your market strategy. The first step is making sure you understand the difference between strategy and tactics. Strategy is the overall approach you wish to employ in order to take advantage of your view of the bigger picture. Tactics are the specific actions you take to implement your strategy.
For example, your strategy may be to stay bullish until the end of the year, using pullbacks and basing as opportunities to increase your long exposure without letting major gains slip away. A tactic you might use to implement this strategy would be selling extended stocks into strength but being fairly aggressive in buying less extended ones when the market is pulling back.
Before you can develop effective tactics you need to have a sound strategy. That means contemplating some basic things, such as your overall market bias. Do you feel this market has more upside in the near future or do you think we are ready to top out and start trending down? Are you optimistic about seasonality into the end of the year or do you think it is too heavily anticipated? Is this market likely to make another run higher after a rest or have the bulls used up their buying power?
Once you have a market thesis in mind you can then work on a strategy, the most fundamental consideration of which is whether you are bullish and bearish. The second most important consideration is your market bias' time frame. These two elements provide the strategic framework to develop your tactics.
Tactics require more detailed planning. What sectors do you like? How will a strong durable goods number affect the market and what will be your response? Do you buy dips or chase strength? There are thousands of tactical considerations but it is only after you know your strategy that they can be most effectively employed.
Strategy is always important but we are now at a point where you may want to update your thinking. Staying bullish and riding the momentum has been a great strategy but with the market extended and some cracks in the strength yesterday, it may be time to question your approach and come up with something that takes into account how the market has changed.
I continue to be bullish on the market overall but I believe the action is likely to be much more choppy and that we are due for some sort of correction. So my tactics are to shorten time frames, tighten stops and sell extended stocks.
What is your strategy, and what tactics will you use to implement it? Answer those questions and you will be in position to win the market wars.
The headline number on the durable goods report is an impressive 3.4% growth vs. consensus of 1.5%. However, if transportation is excluded the numbers are below consensus. A big part of the growth in the headline number was an increase in military aircraft spending, so we need to be wary when considering consumer spending strength.
Overseas markets are mixed, oil flat and gold continues its run.
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UBS on viimasel ajal üsna karune PIR-i vastu. Küllalt tähtis Maja ka, et hinda alla lüija.
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Ei midagi isikliku aga kas "lüija" on verbist "lüüa" nõrgem versioon või tugevam versioon?
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Consumer Confidence 98.9 vs 90.0 consensus
New Home Sales 1424K vs 1200K consensus -
majadeehitajad rallivad
TOL +2.1%, PHM +1.7%, BMHC +1.7%, KBH +1.7% -
Ei midagi isiklikku, aga kas "isikliku" ilma sellele järgneva komata on vähem isiklik? :-)
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To: henryhenry
Velikij jättis ilmselt teadlikult lisamata, et "isikliku" kirjutatakse ikka 2 k-ga
Kaks laksu ühes lauses ja võtad õigekirjas sõna! -
Ise vaatan ka, et kuidagi imelik sõna juhtus. :)
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Ei noh, eesti keele foorum läks lahti! Selleks on meil tegelikult oma instituut.
Foorumis muidugi peab kirjutama nii hästi, kui kirjutaja on suuteline. Samas ei peaks nüüd iga kirja ja täheviga nii närijalikult "üles" korjama ;))
Mõnus jah see, et olemasolevate majade müük alla konsensuse ja uute majade müük üle konsensuse!!
