Börsipäev 10. jaanuar
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Täna ei olegi LHVs ühtegi huvitavat lugu? Kas lood on Pro alla kolinud, kahjuks ei ole ise veel Pro kasutaja ja ei näe sealseid analüüse.
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Piper Jaffray upgrades Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 33.25) to Outperform from Market Perform and $45 tgt, as they believe Dell Computer will start AMD-based system shipments as early as 2H06
Deutsche Bank downgrades LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT 36.41) to Hold from Buy and cuts their tgt to $36 from $49 following Q4 preannouncement and 2006 guidance, as they are concerned about LPNT's outlook and do not expect a meaningful positive catalyst to move LPNT shares over the next 2-3 quarters
Bear Stearns upgrades Verizon Communications (VZ $31.48) to Outperform from Peer Perform and sets a $38 tgt, based on attractive valuation, increased exposure to an improving enterprise mkt from the MCI acquisition, and the belief that a worst case scenario view of the co's aggressive fiber build is priced in
Susquehanna downgrades KLA-Tencor (KLAC 53.01) and Novellus (NVLS 25.80) to Neutral from Positive due to three concerns that make 2006 outperformance less likely: 1) potentially disappointing equipment spending cycle in 2006; 2) validation of their thesis of semiconductor IC ASP degradation despite robust unit growth, potentially dampening cash flow generation in the semiconductor industry; and 3) conflicting reports on equipment order rates that point to a non-uniform order trajectory
CIBC downgrades Alcoa (AA 30.57) to Sector Perform from Outperform following Q4 results that were lower than their own and consensus expectations
Prudential downgrades Ericsson (ERICY $36.89) to Neutral Weight from Overweight saying they expect growth in 2006 to be equal to or slightly less than 2005, with a likely drag on margins. The firm is also calling for a large potential award from the Indian carrier BSNL in the near-term, likely favoring ERICY, NT and NOK
Wachovia upgrades their Financial Services sector to Overweight which reflects a more optimistic view on fixed income in the upcoming Q1 '06, improved visibility for the new issue equity mkt given early 2006 stock mkt performance, and some potential hedge fund regulation changes
ThinkEquity upgrades RSA Security (RSAS 13.69) to Accumulate from Source of Funds and raises their tgt to $17 from $10, after the co preannounced a solid quarter and guidance
Merriman initiates eDiets (DIET $7.11) with a Buy saying they like the co's virtual business model that allows for 85% gross margins and high operating leverage
Research In Motion (RIMM) downgraded to Underperform at CSFB
Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia
Morgan Stanley upgrades Semi Equipment sector to Attractive from In-Line
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Rev Shark:
Being Bullish Doesn't Mean Don't Sell
1/10/2006 9:16 AM ESTThis time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it.
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
By any measure, the market is off to an excellent start. If you have racked up some profits, you should congratulate yourself, do a celebratory dance and then sit down and be ready to go to work to hold on to your gains. You don't have to be negative about the market in order to do some selling. All you need to do is recognize that after five days of big gains, there is a likelihood that we have a pullback coming.
Many investors make the mistake of thinking that if they believe the market is going to go higher in the near-term they should be fully invested and just let things ride. That may work well for some if they are in the right stocks, but for most investors, paring back positions that have big gains and raising cash as the market soars is the best way to make sure you don't give up too much of your profits.
I'm going to repeat this because I believe it is an extremely important concept that many folks fail to grasp: Being bullish doesn't mean that you don't sell positions. I am very bullish about this market, but I have been aggressively selling into this strength. I have a good gain in the early going which I don't want to give back, and have moved my client accounts to around 65% cash as of the open this morning.
If the market and all my favorite stocks continued straight up without any rest or pullbacks I would likely underperform, but I feel quite confident that the market will give me some good entry points if I'm a little patient. If my bullish posture is incorrect and the market does fall apart, I'm in good shape because I have already locked in gains. If the market does continue to rally I have plenty of cash on hand to deploy into the best action and will have the opportunity to rack up further gains. Keep in mind that the best moving stocks during a rally will vary day to day.
The market is indeed looking very good, but it is extended and due for some consolidation. If you play it right, you can preserve your profits and be in position to build on them as profit-taking plays out. Be a bull, but don't forget to manage your positions.
There is quite a bit of news this morning about bird flu. This is a story that is likely to continue to become more important in the months ahead. If you haven't looked at the stocks in that sector you might want to study them. I'm holding BioCryst (BCRX:Nasdaq), Novavax (NVAX:Nasdaq) and American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB:Amex) in that group.
We have a weak start on tap which is exactly what you'd expect after the ridiculous DJIA 11,000 celebration and media frenzy we had yesterday. Overseas markets were weak, gold and metals are down. Oil is up on news that Iran has restarted its nuclear research.
The dip buyers will have an opportunity at the open. Their level of aggressiveness will tell us something about this market.
Position: Long BCRX NVAX AOB
