Nike (NKE)
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Nike ei vaja arvatavasti kellelegi lähemalt tutvustamist, kuid silma jäi üks huvitav sõnavõtt Gary Dvorchaki poolt firma teemal enne eilsete esimese kvartali tulemuste teatavakstegemist. Palju on räägitud ettevõtte marginaalidest, moetrendidest ning FINL käitumisest. Mees võtab kenasti need asjad kokku. Eilne reaktsioon tulemustele:
The strong rally in Nike (NKE) recently (up 9% off the late August lows, see the chart below) is setting up a nice short trade as the stock bumps up against the upper band of a longer term downtrend. Nike stock appears vulnerable now due to a major shift in fashion trends within its business, at the same time that the stock is up due to rising expectations.
Fashion Trend Working Against Nike
Most analysts, and many managers within the footwear industry, believe the fashion cycle is moving away from athletic footwear toward more casual items. Young people especially are shifting to sandals and flip-flops. Look around you next time you are traipsing through the mall, and see how many toes you see staring back at you! Nike's strongest U.S. channels, retailers Foot Locker (FL) and Finish Line (FINL), are weakening noticeably as they build inventory. Finish Line's inventory per square foot has risen by one-third over the last five years, Foot Locker's by 66%! As product continues to back up, Nike is going to be subject to slower ordering patterns. Finish Line in fact admits to recently accelerating its order cancellations, and expects to shift up to 15% of its assortment into the more popular casual segment.
Nike is especially leveraged to basketball shoes, which are roughly one-third of sales and bought mostly by urban customers. Jordan is still strong -- it grew 40% last year -- but there are signs of weakening. Sportscan recently indicated basketball shoe units are down over 10% this year. Young consumers seem to be migrating to lower price points and "lifestyle" brands such as fusion/skate styles made by firms such as Vans. Nike's brand is not as strong in this lifestyle segment, and according to analysts, their entries in this segment are getting "mixed reviews."
Furthermore, the dirty little secret in the industry may be that sales are holding up only because of the massive market share loss by Reebok post its acquisition by Adidas. NPD data shows Reebok sales down nearly 30% year over year in stores it tracks. This tailwind for Nike is unlikely to persist, as Adidas works to recover the value it perceived in that acquisition.
No fashion cycle ever has a predetermined period to run its course, naturally, but analysts and company managements seem to think in three-year blocks. If they are correct, Nike may have at least two more years of waning interest in its highly technical, highly profitable athletic style shoes. Meanwhile, its ability to compete in the casual lifestyle segments may not be strong enough to make up the difference.
Nike stock has rallied on a shoe sell-through uptick in August, after weak showings in June and July. This uptick was most likely driven by back-to-school sales, and may not be sustainable. Nike's future orders accelerated throughout this year, but they are now coming up against a very tough comp (orders up 12% in the year ago period) and are vulnerable to a deceleration. Decelerating futures orders will spook investors, and solidify the sense that fashion is moving away from them.
I would play Nike for a decline into the mid-low $70s over the next couple months. I would wait for tonight's earnings -- an unexpected upside can drive the stock higher, but if they disappoint you'll have time to work the short even if the stock gaps lower tomorrow. The stock is at the top of its channel now, so a break out from here should be stopped out. Look to re-establish the short around $90 if it breaks out, as $90 is a point of long-term resistance; the stock has touched it many times in the last few years but was unable to breach the resistance.
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(NKE:Nike) peab läbirääkimisi Umbro ülevõtmiseks, uudiste tulemusena tõusis Umbro aktsia 27.5 % 153 pennini. Sports Direct sporditarvete kett omab 15 % Umbro aktsiatest ja suure tõenäosusega esitab omapoolse ülevõtupakkumise. Spekulatiivseteks kosilasteks võib veel pidada JJB Sport-i ja Puma, kuna aasta alguses levisid antud ülevõtu kohta kuulujutud. Nike pakkumine tuleb 2 nädalat peale ettevõtte kehvade tulemuste teatamist, kus oli viidatud kehvale suvele ja isegi Inglismaa koondise pääsemisel Euro 2008-le ei suudeta täita müügi prognoose.
