Börsipäev 31. oktoober
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Positiivsus turgude osas on ikka jätkuvalt väga suur. CNBC-l rääkinud 27-st strateegist/portfelli haldurist/analüütikust oli 26 positiivse väljavaatega ja 1 karuse väljavaatega.
Täna avaldab taas suur arv ettevõtteid oma tulemusi – 267 tükki kogunisti. Peale turu sulgemist oodatakse Baidu.com(BIDU) numbreid(reuters: konsensus $0.28), Dreamworks Animation(DWA; Reuters konsensus –$0.01). Enne turgu tuli näiteks Valero Energy(VLO) oma tulemustega(kasumit oodati $2.30 aktsia kohta, era- ja ühekordsed kulud välja jättes teeniti aga $2.42)
Huvitavaid uudiseid tuleb Aasiast. Hiina tegi üllatava teata, öeldes, et Põhja-Korea on nõustunud uuesti osalema kuue riigi vahelistes läbirääkimistes, mille eesmärgiks oleks tuumaprogrammi lõpetamine. Osa võtavad sellest USA, Hiina, Põhja-Korea, Lõuna-Korea, Venemaa ja Jaapani ametnikud. Hetkel ÜRO resolutsioone Põhja-Korea pealt ei eemaldata.
Majandusstatistika:
Employment Cost Index +1.0% vs +0.9% konsensus
Eelturu suuremad liikujad:
Gapping Up: RNAI +98%, AVNR +49%, ALNY +31%, IVAC +26%, NAVR +15%, AXTI +11%, NVAX +10%, FARO +9.3%, EFII +8%, ACTS +7.5%, CELG +6.5%, COGO +5.7%, RACK +4.9%, SNTO +4.9%, ALO +4.3%, IACI +4.3%, BIIB +3.8%, RTI +3.2%, UAUA +2.9%, ADM +2.8%, NNDS +1.7%, ARMHY +1.4%, PWAV +1.1%, CSCO +1%, Under $3: CYTR +34%, ENMD +8.5%... Gapping Down: HIHO -13%, ASGN -12%, STTX -10%, DIVX -7.8%, NGPS -8.2%, MCHX -7%, AMMD -5.6%, WAVX -6.9%, ITWO -6.2%, NWRE -5.4%, TIE -4.7%, NILE -4.5%, UARM -4.5%, SONO -3.7%, ESLR -1.9%, PG -2%, ITMN -1.1%, Under $3: CHTR -6.5%. -
Ka Shark on oluliselt optimistlikemaid kommentaare jagama hakanud. Ta küll manitseb ettevaatusele ja annab mõista, et turg on pisut väsinud, kuid samas ütleb, et ei ole põhjust optimistlikust vaatest loobuda seni, kuni ei näe mingit suurt muutust praegustes trendides. Samuti toob välja, et ajalooliselt on oktoobri lõpp ja novembri algus turgude jaoks väga tugevad olnud.
Like It or Not, the Trend's Still Up
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/31/2006 8:12 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Never let your persistence and passion turn into stubbornness and ignorance."
-- Anthony J. D'Angelo,
The indices did a nice job of recouping some of the loss they suffered Friday but they lacked a little of the persistence and passion that has been the norm lately. Throughout the rally the dips have not only been bought but they have bee bought aggressively and with little second-guessing. The dip buyers showed up again yesterday but volume wasn't that great and the driving force seemed to be a decline in oil rather than a belief the market was going to run away without us.
Although seasonality has not worked in the past couple of months, we need to keep in mind that the last couple days of October and first couple days of November have consistently been a strong period. This probably has something to do with end of the October fiscal year and the kick off of the November through January period, which has traditionally been the best time of the year for the market.
There are probably forces at play to keep holding this market up but the big question is whether we have the juice to go higher. This market has had a tremendous run and is still in need of a rest. A lot of buying power has been used up in recent months and bullish sentiment is high, which means there are not likely to be high levels of untapped cash on the sidelines. We may see some inflows but funds and major market players are likely to have limited buying power at this point.
There is a strong temptation to look for this market to top out at any time. There is nothing wrong with staying vigilant and looking for clues about problems but we have to be careful not to jump too quickly at the first sign of a problem. Many bulls and bears are struggling with the parabolic move of the market and badly want a pullback of some type. Thus they tend to see major problems in even the most minor things and lose track of the simple fact that the market is still trending up.
Stay wary and watch for warning signs but keep in mind that this market still has done nothing wrong and even though it may look a bit tired we need to respect the fact that the bulls are still in charge. The bullish passion and persistence are still there but it can easily turn into stubbornness and ignorance after the big run we have had.
We have a slightly positive start as a slew of earnings reports are digested. Overseas markets were mostly up, oil is down again and gold is pulling back a tad after a run. -
10:00 Chicago PMI 53.5 vs 58.0 consensus
10:00 Consumer Confidence 105.4 vs 107.8 consensus -
Teraseettevõtetel turbulentsed ajad. U.S. Steel räägib kõrgetest varudest klientidel ning hommikul teatas Steel Tech(STTX) oma tulemused, mis jäid väga tugevalt oodatule alla. Samuti kohutas ettevõte terase investoreid juttudega marginaalide kokkusurumisest seoses tihedama konkurentsiga terase töötlemises ning autoturu üleküllastusega. Päeva põhjast on STTX küll dollari jagu kosunud, kuid ikkagi veel üle 8% miinuses. Ka U.S. Steel üle 2% miinuses
X U.S. Steel Conference Call Summary (67.50 -1.51) -Update-
On its conference call, co says that inventories at its service center customers are high, reflecting the high level of imports. However, imports have been trending down in Aug and Sept after peaking in July. Co hopes that trend continues. Since inventories are high, the co says it is reducing production of steel. Co expects spot prices for steel to moderate somewhat in Q4... Co says coal market is in a stable position.... Co was asked if it had plans to sell the tubular business. Co says "we like it where it is." But also says it looks at different possibilities.... Co also says Q4 tubular prices should decline in Q4 and shipments may decline sharply in Q4.
STTX Steel Tech misses by $0.22, revs light (20.69 )
Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.22 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.46; revenues rose 4.8% year/year to $202.3 mln vs the $219.7 mln consensus. Co notes, "Our sales and earnings in 2006 were below the record levels achieved in 2005 as a more competitive environment in the steel processing sector and reduced automotive schedules put pressure on our operating margins." -
Tulemuste avaldajad täna õhtul ja homme enne turgu
Pärast turgu: BIDU, BUCA, CMG, CVTX, DWA, SOLD, ISSI, XPRT, PZZA, REDE, RIMG, TWPG ja URI.
Homme enne turgu: ASF, ANPI, BRNC, CRDN, CLX, DVN, GRMN, ICON, IFS, MA, MYL, BABY, MEN, GAS, ZEUS, PTEN, PXD, SHOO, SUNH, TWX, UPL, WYN ja ZBRA.
