Börsipäev 22. november
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Kommentaarid DELLi tulemustele. Kindlat usku ümberpööramise osas ei ole veel investoritele ja analüütikutele sisestada suudetud. Marginaalide kasv tuli siiski käibekasvu/mixi (DELL walked away from lower margin business in both desktops and notebooks) ja madalamate komponentide hindade arvelt. Samas tuleb tõdeda, et firma only-revenue-driven strateegia minetamine ning ka kasumlikkusele keskendumine võib olla märk uuest ajastust ettevõtte jaoks. HPQ võib oma suure positiivsuse taustal haavatav olla.
DELL Dell: Color on quarter (24.82 )
Thomas Weisel notes preliminary results were in-line on rev expectations but beat on EPS. Firm says storage rev growth was the highlight of the quarter, which grew 27% y/y. On the negative side, desktop rev declined 9% y/y while notebook rev was up only 8%y/y. Server rev grew a solid 8%y/y. They believe higher gross margin was the main driver for EPS upside. Gross margin of 17.1% was 141bp higher than their est of 15.7%. THey say it appears that DELL walked away from lower margin business in both desktops and notebooks, and they note that enterprise was strong, which carries higher margins. Firm believes that DELL is benefiting from the AMD adoption in its PCs... ThinkEquity notes DELL reported better-than-expected revs and a much better than expected EPS number. Strong gross margins were responsible for the better bottom line, but firm does not believe this is sustainable going forward. Competition in the PC sector continues and an increasing percentage of revs are being derived from lower-margin emerging market business... Robert Baird says that although attention on DELL's profitability should fuel recent optimism driving shares, at 14x cash adjusted C07E EPS, firm feels valuation is not overly compelling given questions on growth, longer-term margins, better executing competition, and accounting issues. Firm also raises their tgt to $26 from 24 based on 11x EV/C07E EBITDA... Friedman Billings says gross margins rebounded strongly, leading them to now suspect that the July quarter was a cleanup and that extended warranty margins are in better shape than they thought. This, in turn, means that the trajectory of margin recovery should be steeper than firm had estimated. Firm believes the major questions around bottoming margins have been answered and that Street ests and valuation will rise accordingly. -
WSJ kirjutab nagu ikka peale suurt ülevõttudesadu järgmistest potentsiaasetest kositavatest.
Takeover names mentioned in Heard on the Street - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports Some say consumer-oriented stocks, health-care providers, gaming and tech companies could become acquisition targets in the months ahead. Some point to Sprint Nextel (S), Hilton Hotels (HLT), and home builders such as Lennar (LEN), Ryland Group (RYL) and D.R. Horton (DHI) as possible targets. Private-equity firms are circling ServiceMaster (SVM), say people familiar with the matter. Some companies once considered too big to become private-equity prey now are seen as possibilities, as private-equity coffers grow. Among them: Sprint, whose shares have dropped almost 12% in the past year but still has a market value of $58 bln, as well as Hilton and Avis Budget Group (CAR). A report this month from analysts at Morgan Stanley ranked Lennar, Ryland and D.R. Horton atop its list of leveraged-buyout candidates, based on various metrics such as volatility of free-cash flow. -
Tänases RedHerringus väike artikkel LCD dest:
Demand for flat-panel displays will extend beyond the holidays and into the first half of 2007.
Demand for liquid crystal display (LCD) panels 10 inches or larger is expected to increase in the first two quarters of 2007, long after the holiday season that brings good tidings along with hefty sales of flat-screen TVs, flat desktop computer monitors, and laptops.
Igatahes on flatscreenide hinnad USAs jõulueelselt langemas :
Wal-Mart
20" flat-screen TV -- $69
42" Widescreen Plasma HDTV -- $988
32" LCD HDTV -- $598
Target
37" LCD HDTV -- $1097
19" LCD HD-Ready TV -- $179
Best Buy
15" LCD TV -- $130
42" LCD HDTV -- $999
Circuit City
52" Rear-projection HDTV -- $999
40" LCD HDTV -- $999
... kingikotti? -
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Screenide hinnad on langenud juba väga pikka aega ning samuti ka vastavad aktsiad - GNSS, TRID, GLW jms.
WSJ kirjutab täna asjast natuke teise külje pealt:
WSJ reports some of Asia's makers of liquid crystal displays are expected to cut production again in the first quarter to combat panel-price declines and profit-margin erosion. Such a cutback would bring about more-stable market conditions in the first quarter, a traditionally weak selling season for consumer electronics such as computers and televisions that use LCDs, analysts and co execs say. "Our view is that the panel suppliers will have learned to reduce utilization so they won't build up as much inventory, creating more pricing pressure," said Ross Young, president of mkt research firm DisplaySearch. During the first six months of this year, many LCD makers ramped up production quickly, anticipating strong demand for panels ahead of the World Cup tournament in June. When demand failed to meet their expectations, many LCD makers were left with large inventories and as a result posted steep losses. Analysts say a severe downturn such as the one experienced during the first half of 2006 is unlikely in 2007 because cos have already trimmed further investment in increased capacity at advanced plants and are likely to adjust their factory utilization rates if they see inventory levels rising.
Peale LCD-de on WMT langetanud kõvasti ka toiduainete hindasid!
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Indeksite futuurid eelturul kenasti plusspoolel. Light Crude jaanuari lepingud võrreldes eilsega pisut järele andmas $58.89. Praeguse seisuga tõotab tulla positiivne turualgus.
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Tulles Delli marginaalide juurde tagasi...
2006 2006 2005
3 .november 4. august 28. oktoober
Gross margin 17% 15,5% 16,2%
Operating margin 4,7% 4,3% 4,4%
Net income margin 5,7% 3,6% 5,4%
Siit on näha siis, et marginaalid paranesid nii eelmise kvartali kui ka eelmise aasta sama kvartali osas(5.mail lõppenud kvartali marginaalidele jäädakse siiski alla).
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Keep an Open Mind and Pass the Gravy
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/22/2006 8:58 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Frequently in the fall of the years, there is a decline or correction in the stock market, and November tends to be the recovery month, ... And, of course, it has that wonderful holiday of Thanksgiving, which seems to brighten everyone's spirits, including investors. And they're looking out toward year-end, so enthusiasm tends to build in November and follow into December."
-- Bernadette Murphy
For many market professionals, this long rally has been the source of great angst. The problem isn't that they have been negative and thought the market would go down, but that they never had an opportunity to fully embrace the long side because the market never offered good entry points.
Professional investors and big funds tend to be adverse to buying strength. They prefer to buy dips and pullbacks in their favorite stocks and then sell into the surges. The problem with this strategy is that there simply have not been any notable pullbacks since August. When I say there have been "no pullbacks" I'm not exaggerating in the least. Even multiple days of weakness in a row produced only a minor point loss.
And that brings us to Thanksgiving. Typically spirits are running high and there is much optimism in the air as we enjoy the festivities. We feel good and most everyone is anticipating the market's well-known inclination to close out the year in a strong fashion. We are counting on the prospect of further gains - and that has tended to be the smart thing to do.
Will this year turn out different or will we pile up more gains? What we need to ponder is whether the strong three-month rally we have already enjoyed -- and the lack of any correction -- will undermine the ability of the market to continue to go straight up from here.
I'm sure many investors out there think it's ridiculous to even consider the possibility that we will have anything other than a straight up run into the end of the year but this exercise isn't about prediction; it is about making sure we keep an open mind and are ready to take the action we need to and make sure we don't give back our gains.
I find myself cringing when I hear talk about "the best market ever" and comparisons to the action of 1999-2000. It isn't that those might not be apt descriptions but it creates an environment of emotion that almost guarantees some sort of pullback. The more bullish market players become the less able they will be to push the market higher because they will have depleted their buying reserves.
We need not worry too much about December right now as we deal with the days surrounding Thanksgiving. Historically these trading days have about an 80% chance of being positive. Traders know it and they push hard to make it self-fulfilling prophecy. This year there has been an even greater anticipation of good trading because of the strong momentum we already enjoy.
I had a good time yesterday running and gunning and knocking out some good trades and I expect the same today and on Friday but beyond that I'm concerned about taking positive seasonality for granted. The market mood is extreme and with fear of any sort of pullback almost non-existent the chances of one are growing fast. That doesn't mean we turn negative and start anticipating. It means we keep an open mind as we enjoy our Thanksgiving feast.
We have a positive start due in large part to a positive report from Dell. Overseas markets were strong, oil is down and gold up.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: DELL +10% (also upgrades from Bear Stearns and Needham), BRCD +7.8% (also Needham upgrade), JCG +6.1%, PSS +3.9% (also Susquehanna upgrade)... Other news: CLWT +44% (Forbes article; being picked up as a momentum name), NWACQ.PK +26% (possibly up on Delta bondholders pushing the US Air deal perhaps making a Northwest deal more likely), CRAY +28% (wins Pentagon contract to develop next supercomputers), MGM +10.4% (Tracinda announces tender offer for 15 mln shares), LAB +5.6% (extends recent run), IACI +5.4% (to be added to S&P 500), EFUT +5.4% (continued momentum), CYBX +5.1% (extends yesterday's late move higher), MCDTA +5.1% (in sympathy with BRCD), DTV +4.9% (to be added to S&P 500), MRVC +4.6% (Cowen initiates with Outperform), HNSN +4.6% (Greenberg mentions on CNBC), VCLK +4% (to be added to S&P 400), SHLD +3.9% (positive broker comments), BEAS +3.6% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money, calls it an unequivocal buy), NOK +2.8% (completes demonstration in China), FCX +1.8% (FBR upgrade), INTC +1% (in sympathy with Dell).
Allapoole avanevad:
EHTH -9% (TWP initiates at Underweight), CWTR -6.7% (disappointing OctQ report), NVAX -6.5% (files shelf registration), PDLI -3.8% (Roche ends collaboration; also First Albany downgrade), PACT -3.1% (extends recent weakness), OPWV -3% (gets another delisting notice), OPSW -2%, EYE -2% (Merrill and Citigroup downgrades), SAI -1.6% (six firms initiate coverage on recent IPO, all are Hold/Neutral). -
Ctrip.com International (CTRP) on põrganud $56 toetuselt. Sama tase on juulis vastupanu näidanud. Hetkel potentsiaalne võimalus põrget püüda.
Päevasiseselt graafikult on näha, et kiirem liikumine on kohe päeva algul tehtud, kuid kui jäädakse $56.4 peale püsima, siis veel võimalus pikaks minna.
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The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 5.161 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 2.6 mln barrels); gasoline inventories had a build of 1.406 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 750K); distillate inventories had a draw of 1.198 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 1.1 mln barrels).
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Tehnilise poole pealt on Nasdaq jõudnud / kohe jõudmas kauplemisvahemiku ülemisse serva. Kuna õigupoolest pole suve keskpaigast hinge tõmmatudki, võiks vähemalt graafiku põhjal lähiajal korrektsiooni oodata.
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Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. investment firm on Wednesday said it had sold $462 million of stock in General Motors Corp this week, cutting its stake in the automaker to 7.4 percent from 9.9
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061122/bs_nm/autos_gm_kerkorian_dc -
Ja blogidest väike kommentaar:
GM’s stock has rallied this year, and the emerging consensus on Wall Street appears to be that GM’s short-term move higher is stalled, for now. What could revive it? 1) A demonstrated ability by GM to introduce must-have car models that will win back U.S. consumers, who are increasingly favoring imports, particularly from Japan; and 2) a demonstrated ability to get legacy costs [labor, benefits, overall plant] under control.
