Börsipäev 24. november
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DAX indeks (Saksamaa) täna hommikul...
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Punane Reede.
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Bloomberg.com:
European stocks fell after the dollar dropped to an 18-month low against the euro. DaimlerChrysler AG and ING Groep NV led a decline by companies that rely most on the U.S. for sales.
``When you invest in euro-zone equities, you know there is a risk in that it is a region that's highly dependent on exports,'' said Jacques Porta, who helps oversee $180 million at Ofivalmo Patrimoine in Paris. The dollar's decline ``is very bad news for most large companies in Europe. We are looking at it closely.'' -
Maavärinad taas kõneaineks - sedakorda pääses Hawaii kergelt
Earthquake rattles Hawaii's Big Island- CNN.com
CNN.com is reporting an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 4.5 struck off the northwest coast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Thursday in the same area where two stronger quakes struck last month. The quake, centered about 11 miles northwest of Puuanahulu, shook homes on the Big Island, Maui and Oahu, but it did not produce a tsunami threat, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated its magnitude at 5.0; the Tsunami Warning Center estimated it at 4.5. There were isolated power outages in Kona on the Big Island, but no other damage was immediately reported. -
NY Times kirjutab täna ravimifirmade lobitööst ja väljavaadetest:
NY Times reports alarmed at the prospect of Democratic control of Congress, top execs from two dozen drug cos met here last week to assess what appears to them to be a harsh new political climate, and to draft a battle plan. Hoping to prevent Congress from letting the govt negotiate lower drug prices for millions of older Americans on Medicare, the pharmaceutical cos have been recruiting Democratic lobbyists, lining up allies in the Bush administration and Congress, and renewing ties with organizations of patients who depend on brand-name drugs. Many drug co lobbyists concede that the House is likely to pass a bill intended to drive down drug prices, but they are determined to block such legislation in the Senate. If that strategy fails, they are counting on President Bush to veto any bill that passes. With 49 Republicans in the Senate next year, the industry is confident that it can round up the 34 votes normally needed to uphold a veto.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/24/washington/24drug.html?hp&ex=1164430800&en=e3a2a389f5280dcc&ei=5094&partner=homepage -
Tänane Sharki 'jutuke' siin pärineb tema eilsest sulest. Minu arust väga nutikalt kokku pandud punktide nimistu, mis tavainvestorite peast erinevates turufaasides läbi jooksevad.
Chronicle of a Market Cycle
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/22/2006 3:29 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
Volume is slowing as folks head out for the holiday and trading is getting a bit random. We are obviously holding up very well and buyers continue to dominate. But putting on new buys with a time frame of longer than a few minutes is a tough task in front of the abbreviated trading season we'll have on Friday.
Will the market ever go down again? Sure it will. The market has very predictable cycles that always play out in the same way. What makes it so hard is the timing, but this is how it always happens:
The Market Cycle
1. It's a break out -- load up the longs!
2. Yes we are extended, but buyers are still scrambling to get long.
3. Overbought markets can get even more overbought.
4. This market isn't going to give you a chance to buy, so you better chase it.
5. This is the best market ever.
6. This time it's different.
7. A pullback is healthy. We needed a rest after this big run.
8. This weakness is a buying opportunity.
9. Here's the bounce!
10. This pullback is a buying opportunity.
11. We should bounce anytime now.
12. A bounce is coming very soon;
13. This weakness is a buying opportunity.
14. We should find support anytime now.
15. I thought this was the best market ever?
16. We are never going to go up again.
17. This is the worst market ever. -
Teeme väikese tehnilise ülevaate valitsevast meeleolust turgudel. Nagu graafik näitab, oleme jätkuvalt tugevas ülestrendis ning sentiment paistab päris positiivne. Kuid igasugune tõus toob juurde uusi müüjaid ning tundub, et aeg on küps väikeseks korrektsiooniks. Aga eks on kindlasti ka neid, kes teistmoodi arvavad. Aga laseme indikaatoritel rääkida omas keeles. Hakkame ülaltpoolt pihta.Näeme, et Nasdaq ülestrend on olnud tervisest lausa pakatav. Liigutakse kenasti ülalpool 50 ja 200 päeva libisevat keskmist ning tehtud on 3 puudet Bollingeri eraldava 20 päeva libiseval keskmisel. Peale oktoobrilõpu korrektsiooni on lühiajaline trend olnud taas üles, kuid näib, et hakatakse väsima. Bollingeri ülaserva enam ei puudutata ning ka kauplemispäevade käive on tõusule vastupidiselt käitunud ning langenud. Vastassuunalist liikumist näeme ka Chaikini money flow indikaatoril, mis tähendab, et tõusupäevade käive on madalam kui languspäevade oma, ilmselt ei taheta sellel tasemel enam niivõrd aktiivselt kaubelda. Suhtelise tugevuse indikaator RSI on jõudnud tsooni, mida tõlgendatakse üleostetud piirkonnana. Kuna ekstreemsused kestavad lühikest aega, siis taas ootaks ka selle indikaatori neturaalsemaks muutumist - kõige kiirem viis on väike korrektsioon.
Kõige paremat indikaatorite vastassuunalise liikumist näeme aga Dow Jonesi graafikult. Kuigi indeks on teinud üha kõrgemaid tippe, on nii käive langenud kui RSI üleostetud tsoonis. Veel enam, nii RSI, CMF, MACD kui STO (joonisel puudub) on liikunud graafikuga vastassuunas, mis on kindel ohusignaal lühikeses prespektiivis.
Lisaks kõigele on ka STO teinud ülalpool 80 taset negatiivse ristumise. (STO juuresolevatele graafikutele ei mahtunud)
Turgudel on tavaks ülereageerida, seega korrektsiooni puhul ootaksin maandumist taas kõigepealt 20 päeva libiseval keskmisel kui mitte koguni madalamal. Aga nii palju kui on silmapaare, on ka vaatajaid. Seega jääb alati igaühel võimalus alati ka teistsuguseks tõlgenduseks. Üleeile oli ka volatiilsusindeksil $VIX üle pika aja positiivne päev, tehes siiski päeva sees allpool 10 punkti seni madalaima taseme.
Täna on toornafta plussis ja indeksite futuurid on tugevasti punases, mis tähendab ,et turud avanevad ilmselt miinuses. -
Ülespoole avanevad:
SYX +17% (reports Q2 results), ASX +10% (co says it may get an offer from the Carlyle Group), TKP +9% (media reports that ENI or Saipem could launch a bid - Reuters; however, Forbes.com reports co says it has not been approached), DDSS +6.3%, OXGN +5.4% (extends Wednesday's strength on insider buy), CCJ +5.3% (co pursues uranium partnership with Russian company), ORCH +4.5%, KRY +4.4% (extends recent momentum, +17% in a week), ULTR +4.2% (Jefferies initiates with $16 target), AUY +3.8%, MLS +3.7% (co says it has completed a deal that releases it from future obligations to the Meadowlands Xanadu complex to be built in New Jersey), AU +3.5%, HAL +1.1%... Recent momentum stocks finding a bid on low volume day: CLWT +7%, EFUT +2.9%... Under $3: CTIC +10% (extends recent momentum, +21% in a about a week).
Allapoole avanevad:
AKH -7.5% (co announces tentative talks on a tie-up with Alitalia - AP), WRLS -7.7% (proft taking after big move this week), CTTY -4.5% (profit taking after Wednesday's 31% move), UAUA -3.2% (profit taking after revent big move, +25% in 10 days), CAAS -3.2% (profit taking after revent big move, +36% in 2 weeks), LOGI -2.3% (profit taking after revent big move, +31% in 1 month), NMX -2.1%, ASML -2.1%, MT -1.7% (Soleil analyst on CNBC says all steel stocks are in play except MT as it's too big).
Spekulatsioonid möllavad taas turul:
Weakness in dollar in part due to "secret" Chinese document -- Bloomberg TV
On Bloomberg TV, a trader is saying that hurting the dollar is a secret Chinese document from the Chinese Central bank saying that their dollar inventory is too high and may need to sell in order to diversify. He says this is the talk among a lot of traders in the pre-market. -
Meeldetuletuseks: täna siis kauplemispäev eilsete pühade tõttu lühendatud - kauplemine kestab USA turul kuni kella 20.00ni Eesti aja järgi.
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Ja jätk hommikusele pildile. Kui muidu kiputi selliseid languseid üles ostma, siis täna on situatsioon teine:
Ja mõne aja tagune arvamus ka BCA Researchilt:
The odds of a global equity market consolidation or correction are rising.
Global equities have gained 16% since mid-June, and are now well above their May high. Stocks have benefited from a stream of positive economic surprises, including the sharp fall in oil prices and bond yields, among other things. It will be increasingly difficult to sustain this positive news flow in the short term. Moreover, this latest surge in stock prices is already comparable to the past three rally phases during the bull run that began in 2003, indicating that stocks are more vulnerable to any “bad” news. Bottom line: although market fundamentals on a 6-12 month horizon are still favorable, stocks look stretched from a short-term perspective.
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Ei tea, kas minu silmad on väsinud aga see viimane tõus (15.7%) on kõige järsem (äkilisem) !!!
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Tuletan meelde, et täna, reedel on USA turgudel lühendatud kauplemispäev. Turud suletakse kell 20:00 Eesti aja järgi. Ehk minu kella järgi vähem kui poole tunni pärast.
