Börsipäev 19. detsember
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December 19, 2006
Eesti Telekom’s (Buy) possible expansion to Latvia. There have been talks that Eesti Telecom could be interested in expanding to Latvian market. However, this is highly speculative, since a lot of things have to take the right turn before this could happen. Most important, the major owner of Telecom, TeliaSonera, has to sell its stake in Latvian telecom operator Lattelekom (at the moment, they are discussing the price with Latvian government). Until this has not happened, TeliaSonera would not allow Eesti Telecom to compete with its other subsidiaries (this was the case in 1900s, when Eesti Telecom had plans on Russian side). But in case TeliaSonera actually decides to leave Latvian market, Eesti Telecom’s expansion to Latvia will be their own decision, Niklas Henriksson from TeliaSonera said. Eesti Telecom has not discussed this option, since the topic is too speculative, CEO Jaan Männi said to daily Postimees.
Tallinna Kaubamaja starts selling cars. Yesterday after market close the Estonian retailer Tallinna Kaubamaja announced it had acquired full ownership in Kia Auto, an importer and wholesaler of Kia Motors cars and spare parts in the Baltic States. The company has 19 resellers (8 in Estonia, 8 in Lithuania and 3 in Latvia). In 2005, Kia Auto generated sales of EEK 367m (13% of Kaubamaja´s sales in 2005) and Pre-Tax profit of EEK 4m (4% of Kaubamaja´s Pre-Tax profit in 2005). The price of the acquisition was not disclosed, but it did not exceed 10% of the Kaubamaja´s equity, i.e. EEK 99m. On one hand, we don’t see a major uplift in profits in short term as the company generates very low margin (ca 1%), but on the other hand the challenge is to turn it around, i.e. to bring margins up to around 4-5%, which is the average for other Estonian car sellers. Overall, car sales are currently growing more than 50% a year in the Baltics.
Half way to EU. According to Eurostat, Latvia’s GDP per capita in PPP was 48% of EU average in 2005. Lithuania was around half of the EU average (52%) and Estonia’s GDP was 60% of the EU average. Assuming a steady growth rate of 6% for Baltics and 2.5% for EU, it would take ca 15 years for Estonia to catch up and 20 and 22 years for Lithuania and Latvia, respectively.
Preparing for the worst. Sweden’s central bank Riksbank and central banks of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania signed an agreement entitled ”Memorandum of Understanding on Management of a financial crisis in banks with cross-border subsidiaries or branches” yesterday. At present, Swedish banks own a large share in the banking systems of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It seems like the cooling of the housing market is making everybody cautious.
Fitch downgrades PKN, ups Mazeikiu. Fitch Ratings previously set and now reaffirmed that Mazeikiu Nafta’s Issuer Default rating (IDR) is "B+” with a positive outlook and short-term rating is “-B”. The ratings agency positively viewed the fact that the refinery was bought by a stronger Polish oil company, BBN wrote. At the same time, Fitch downgraded PKN Orlen’s IDR to “BBB-“ from “BBB” and set its short-term rating at “F3”. The rating downgrade was based on Mazeikiu acquisition.
Olympic appoints new member of management. The Estonian casino operator Olympic Casino appointed a third member of management board. Mr Mart Relve’s responsibilities will be the day-to-day management and development of Olympic’s companies. Relve has been employed as Vice President of Estonian Air, where he was in charge of commercial affairs. He has also worked as CEO for R Kiosk Estonia. Speculations about a new management board member were already circling the market last week.
Lidl selling properties in Lithuania. According to BBN, the German discounter chain Lidl has already sold 3 properties in Lithuania and has another 25 for sale, whereof 3 have been reserved. The total size of the properties is 300,000 square meters; while by comparison, the total commercial space in Lithuanian shopping centres was 244,000 square meters in 2004. Interesting if Tallinna Kaubamaja might also be interested in acquiring some of the plots as it recently did in Latvia.
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Täna saab näha investorite usu tugevust, kas tõus on olnud ainult näiline ja paberil või suudetakse taset hoida. Nimelt on halbu uudisedi aasiast, mis sealseid börse negatiivselt mõjutanud ning peaksid märgi külge jätma ka Euroopa aktsiaturgudele.
Tai Keskpank otsustas kitsendada valuutapiiranguid ning 30% väljapoolt sissevoolanud rahast tuleb valuutaspekulatsioonide vältimiseks hoida riigis vähemalt aasta otsa. Thai valuuta bath, mis sellel aastal on dollari vastu 16% tugevnenud, langes päevaga 2%. Suurem probleem on aga kohalik börs, mis kukkus päevaga 12% - 444 aktsiat on miinuses ja 4 plussis. -
1997 algas pull ka kuskilt Taist, ... või oli see Taiwan?
oi aegu ammuseid -
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Morgan Stanley said it plans to spin off its Discover credit card unit in a move to "enhance shareholder value." The investment bank said Discover "achieved its best full-year results ever," with revenue of $4.3 billion and income before taxes of $1.6 billion, up 72% from a year earlier.
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Kui üldiselt Jim Cramer mu lemmikute hulka ei kuulu, siis Tai situatsiooni osas on tema kommentaar üks parimaid. Mida ta ei maini, on likviidsus, kuid see oli peamiseks probleemiks just pool aastat tagasi toimunud kukkumise ajal. Kommentaar järgmine:
Don't like this Thailand situation. Not one bit. When governments get involved -- as with Thailand's new currency control that locks up 30% of foreign capital deposits, ostensibly to stem speculation in the baht -- you have to pull back in emerging markets. I have tried to justify, at various times, why I should stay in "good" emerging markets and just avoid "bad" emerging markets, and I have always failed.
When I look at the gains in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and India, I just say shoot first, take it off the table -- I don't even care if I give up 5% on the get-out.
These markets are pathetically interrelated by mindset and leverage. Whatever would attract people to investing in Thailand attracts them to all other emerging markets. Worse, these people tend to all panic at once. Maybe they don't panic today; that just means they'll panic tomorrow.
Think back to what happened in Latin America in May: nothing! That's right, nothing at all. But those stocks went down huge, many being cut in half, simply because our central bank raised rates too high. The worst that happens? You miss a big move up that is, alas, highly unlikely, given what just happened. Now everyone will scrutinize each government -- the new Thai government was pro-investing -- and conclude there is more risk than they thought.
Not worth weathering it. Never has been.
Kommentaarid Oracle (ORCL) kvartalitulemustele:
BofA affirms their buy on weakness for ORCL. Firm says strong 2Q rev, but disappointing applications license rev. While they're disappointed in this, firm believes the long-term thesis around the co's business model remains intact as mgmt noted the sales pipeline rose 35% in the quarter and they believe the F3Q (Feb) guidance bakes in a high degree of conservatism based on the current pipeline levels. ORCL noted that most of the deals in F2Q were pushed out, not lost, and firm believes that the app customer base remains very active based on their checks, which should bode well for F2H07. Firm trims their 3Q est (Feb) to $0.22 from $0.23 (St $0.22), but offset with increase in 4Q est (May) to $0.34 from $0.33 (St $0.34). Firm also trims Y08 est (May) to $1.07 from $1.08 (St $1.10
Susquehanna says there was nothing too exciting about ORCL's 2Q07 results. The applications business may have shown its true colors in 2Q07, growing organically 1% Y/Y. As the Siebel acquisition anniversaries early next year, they would not be surprised to see another meaningful acquisition by ORCL. Firm believes many investors are attuned to this. The noise over 100 bps of growth here and there on the database license rev line in 2Q07 was a bit overdone. Essentially, the top line was in-line with their ests, and looking forward, guidance for 3QFY07 was more or less in-line. Firm believes the recent (and likely much needed) pullback in ORCL shares represents a nice entry point for investors who want exposure to a defensive name in an otherwise volatile software market. With their forward ests relatively unchanged and the shares still attractively valued, they remain Positive on ORCL.
Thomas Weisel notes ORCL reported 2Q revs of $4.22 bln beating consensus top-line rev of $4.15 bln on strength in maintenance and services despite some weakness in new license sales. License rev was $1.207 bln vs. their est of $1.241 bln due to weakness in the North America region and the applications business. For 3Q, firm says mgmt guided to total rev of $4.31-4.38 bln, (22-24% y/y growth) license rev of $1.272-1.337 bln (16-22% y/y growth), EPS of $0.22 (15-19% y/y growth) and a 4-5% positive FX impact. This compares with previous consensus of $4.18 bln and $0.22 EPS and firm's previous license est of $1.234 mln. Although the midpoint of rev guidance is $160 mln above consensus, EPS guidance was only in line due to operating margins tracking slightly below street models. Note: Firm says ORCL mgmt also stated that the pipeline has grown significantly in the past quarter, and that guidance assumes a conversion rate at the lower end of the three-year trend... Friedman Billings notes last night ORCL reported a generally in-line quarter, with total rev upside, soft application rev, and in-line EPS. Firm believes the co has a strong pipeline entering the back half of its fiscal year, thanks in part to its additional investments in sales coverage, vertical application build out, and a slew of new products. This healthy pipeline should support steady growth in the database technology business, while helping the application business rebound. They also believe there is more leverage in the model and expect meaningful margin improvement over the coming quarters. Firm maintains their Outperform rating and $20 tgt, which represents 18x their CY07 EPS est of $1.09, and is a slight discount multiple to our annual 20% forecasted EPS growth for FY07 and FY08... Citigroup: ➤ ORCL Q2 was okay, not great. Total rev of $4.2bn modestly beat by $91M onhigher services. EPS of $0.22 was inline.➤ Weak point - contrary to expectations, database saw a miss of just $4m (growthof 9.5% vs our 10%). A clear 11% miss on apps ($340M vs $377M) raisesyellow flag. Deals spilled over into Q3 and were not competitive losses.➤ Encouraging outlook as ORCL meaningfully lifted Q3 total and license revguidance based on a 35% sequential Q2/Q3 improvement in the pipeline,double that of the 17% sequential pipeline build of last year. And ORCL ismodeling lower conversion rates than in the past.➤ We are raising our total Q3 rev est to 22% y/y growth, up from 15%. FY07 andFY08 EPS remains unchanged at $0.99 and $1.15, respectively. ➤ Maintain Buy. At 16.5x CY07 EPS, ORCL's stock is inexpensive vs to itssoftware peer group at 22x and trades below 2-yr avg EPS growth of 20x.
MS Morgan Stanley beats by $0.04, beats on revs; announces Discover spinoff, $6 bln stock buyback (80.37 ) Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $1.81 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.77; revenues rose 7.8% year/year to $8.63 bln vs the $8.27 bln consensus. Co also announces that the Board of Directors has approved the spin-off of Discover. CEO comments "Given the record results and significant momentum both in our securities business and our cards and payments business, we have concluded, after our most recent strategic review, that they can best execute their growth strategies as two stand-alone, well-capitalized companies with independent boards of directors focused on creating shareholder value." Co also announced that its Board of Directors has also authorized the repurchase of up to $6 bln of co's outstanding stock.
Circuit City (CC) teeb "Best Buy'd" (BBY):
CC Reports Q3 (Nov) loss of $0.09 per share, $0.14 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 6.9% year/year to $3.1 bln vs the $3.12 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY07, sees FY07 rev growth of 8-9% or roughly $12.52-12.64 bln ($12.81 bln consensus) down from prior guidance 9-11% growth or roughly $12.64-12.87 bln. Sees FY07 domestic segment comparable store sales growth of 6-7%, down from 7-9%. The fiscal 2007 outlook, as updated, is based on the following assumptions: a continuation of current competitive and macroeconomic environments, continued gross margin pressure in key product areas, continued sales growth in key product areas including flat panel televisions, video game hardware, notebook computers, digital imaging and portable digital audio players as well as related accessories and services, continued growth in Web-originated sales, no realization of benefits in fiscal 2007 from initiatives to accelerate sales growth, gross margin improvement or expense reductions, nor any potential costs or expenses associated with those initiatives, improved customer-encountered inventory in-stock levels
BofA initiates Monster Worldwide (MNST 46.21) with a Buy and $57 tgt, saying 20% growth will be driven by the ongoing secular shift online in Help Wanted, investments to harvest untapped revenue opportunities (leveraging its traffic and users for additional advertising revenue and the U.S. small/medium business market) and international opportunity in Europe and Asia Pacific
Stifel Nicolaus initiates KBR (KBR 23.87) with a Buy and $32 tgt, as they believe KBR is well positioned to provide refining solutions that accommodate heavier, high-sulfur crude oil slates, as well as to monetize stranded natural gas via LNG and GTL technology
Deutsche Bank upgrades Deutsche Telekom (DT 18.03) to Buy from Hold
CIBC downgrades Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM 30.78) to Sector Performer from Outperformer, saying they believe gros margins have yet to stabilize and are likely to compress further as management continues its quest for top-line growth.
Citigroup downgrades Anadarko (APC 44.03), Noble Energy (NBL 49.91), and Devon Energy (DVN 68.22) to Hold from Buy.
UBS upgrades Coldwater Creek (CWTR 25.21) to Buy from Neutral
UBS upgrades Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 68.26) to Buy from Neutral
C Citigroup downgraded to Hold from Buy at A.G Edwards- based on valuation
Ford Motor upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley- saying Ford has ample liquidity for turnaround
BIDU Baidu.com target raised to $128 at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs raises their tgt on BIDU to $128 from $93 due to higher expectations for margins, despite slightly lower revenue
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Eilne Thai Fund (TTF) kukkumine oli päris naljakas, hetkel eelturul biditakse kõrgemalt. Tegemist on closed end fondiga, mis investeerib 80% kapitalist Tai aktsiatesse.
Majandusstatistika, mis on seekord natukene teise ilmega. Futuurid tegid korraks jõnksu alla:
Core PPI YoY +1.8% vs +0.9% Bloomberg consensusPPI +2.0% vs +0.5% consensus
Core PPI MoM +1.3% vs +0.2% consensus
Building Permits 1506K vs 1535K consensus
Housing Starts 1588K vs 1550K consensus
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Producer prices rose much more than expected in November, as the core producer price index rose by the most since July 1980, the Labor Department said. The November producer price index climbed by 2%, the biggest rise since November 1974, statistics show.
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8:42 Thai government reverses controls decision after market rout
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"When I look at the gains in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and India, I just say shoot first, take it off the table -- I don't even care if I give up 5% on the get-out."
Kui Cramer rääkis Tai börsi kukkumisest ja seda et Mehhiko, Brasiilia, Argentiina ja India arenevate turgudena võivad samuti pihta saada, siis omalt poolt lisaks siia nimekirja veel Malaisia. EWM - iShares MSCI Malaysia Index. EWM oli eelturul ca -4.5% ka miinuses. Kuigi valitsus Tais muutis otsust pärast turul olevaid probleeme, on ebaselgus ja närvikõdi igaljuhul tõusnud. -
Tai jamad on minu jaoks kogu maailma aktsiaturgude lakmuspaberiks, hetkel tundub et ka see segadus neelatakse siiski alla.
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Tänane punane eelturg tähendab USA turule negatiivset starti. Eilne väike positiivne pullitunne pöördub üsna ruttu karuseks. Täna toon välja Nasdaq nädalased küünlad. Kuig indeks on teinud viimaste nädalatega mitme aasta tipu, ollakse siiski vastupanu juures. Oleksin võinud joonistada ülemise vastupanu ka 2004. aasta alguse tipust, kuid joonistasin selle pigem RSI järgi. Näeme, et ka RSI on jõudnud oma mitme aasta kauplemisvahemiku vastupanutasemeni. Tegu on ülehinnatud tasemega. Ka MACD histogramm on näidanud juba mõned ajad tagasi vähenemise märke ning MACD crossover oleks sell signaaliks. Ka STO asub ülehinnatud tasemel.
Sarnaselt Nasdaq graafikule toon välja ka ühe tehnilise picki. Tegu on ValueClickiga, mille graafik paistab üsna karune. Eriti kena on MACD, mis on andnud varem häid sisenemise ja väljumispunkte.
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Shark räägib täna pisut maksude optimeerimisest ja kauplemisest. Kuigi maksude optimeerimine võib olla mõistlik otsus, tuleb siiski tunnistada, et kui mingil põhjusel liigub turg vastupidiselt oodatule tuleks ehk siiski silm kinni pigistada, tehing teha ja maksude peale mitte nii väga mõelda. Muidu võib juhtuda, et ootamisega võib vastasel korral kaotada rohkem kui maksude maksmisega...
Don't Let Tax Talk Influence Trading
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/19/2006 8:43 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Some of us think holding on makes us strong; but sometimes it is letting go."
-- Herman Hesse
The dilemma as we approach the end of the year is do we lock in our profits and bask in the glow of a good year or do we avoid the grasp of the taxman and wait until next year to recognize our gains? Although taxes are certainly an issue, don't put too much emphasis on them.
As far as the overall market, the managers of the vast majority of money in mutual funds, hedge funds, pension plans and in institutional accounts are not very sensitive to tax considerations. All they care about is their returns, which are calculated before any tax considerations. There is little motivation for these big players to delay selling for tax reasons.
The problem that funds do face is that many of them are required to stay heavily invested at all times, so if they do take profits they have to find some other place to put their cash. Apparently many of them are using stocks like GE and Citigroup as parking spots as they take profits in stocks like Google and Apple.
Individual investors may be more sensitive to taxes but delaying your sales until January really doesn't help all that much if you have to make estimated tax payments anyway. Technically a gain in the first quarter of 2007 would have to be paid at the same time as you pay your 2006 tax bill.
Many folks don't make their estimated tax payments or have reasons to delay the payment so it is possible they could avoid paying the tax but there is some cost associated with that.
In any event, taxes as a driving force to hold the market up is probably exaggerated to a degree. In my personal experience I have found time and time again that investment decisions that are driven by tax considerations tend to be quite poor. In my efforts to save a few dollars in taxes I end up losing far more in profits as I hang on to a trade that is acting poorly. My rule is to ignore taxes when I trade and focus solely on maximizing profits.
We are looking at a weak open this morning as the negative tone from yesterday carries over, and issues in emerging market Thailand send some ripples overseas. Thailand is passing rules that restrict the withdrawal of funds from that country although they now seem to be backing off and that is causing some problems. Thailand was the root cause of the Asian contagion that hit the market back in 1998 so that is probably stirring up some emotions.
PPI came in higher than expected and is putting additional pressure on the open. Given the lower CPI and the high PPI there must be some margin pressures developing somewhere (that is, if you trust the accuracy of these numbers). The action yesterday was much poorer than it looked and the Nasdaq is very close to rolling over. Small-caps have been particularly weak and have already started to break support, as you can see from the chart of the Russell 2000 at revsharkblog.com -
Ülespoole avanevad:
EDA +36% (to be acquired by American Apparel), ESCL +33% (Audit Committee investigation is complete; co to restate results), TOMO +13% (co to enter joint venture with EBAY - Reuters), KERX +8.4%, CSLR +6.6%, SCHL +5.1% (reports NovQ), GMKT +5% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money; says co could be the next EBAY), GERN +5% (positive clinical data), ACTU +4.3% (renews deal with Oracle), MEDX +3.7% (recovers after recent sell-off), CUP +3.7% (extends yesterday's +14% move), TTF +3.4% (bounces after 9% drop yesterday), ARMHY +2.4% (launches new product), MS +1.9% (reports NovQ), F +1.7% (Morgan Stanley upgrade)... Under $3: GNVC +50% (positive clinical data), DOC +11% (wins contract extension; also ADSX +3.6%), ZILA +6.2% (executives enroll in stock purchase plan).
Allapoole avanevad:
APSG -17% (reports OctQ; misses by $0.16; also downgrades from CIBC and BB&T), CC -14% (reports NovQ, misses by $0.14, guides revs lower), TUES -12% (guides below consensus), EMKR -9%, NSTC -8% (announces acquisition, Susquehanna downgrade), PGLA -7.6% (profit taking following recent move), FCEL -6.3% (reports OctQ), NVEC -5.1% (extends yesterday's 10% drop), ENCY -4.7% (extends yesterday's weakness), ORCL -3.2% (reports NovQ), HOV -3% (reports OctQ), BIIB -2.9% (FDA issues alert as two people die after taking Rituxan), RBAK -2.9% (RBC downgrade), TSM -1.9% (fab shuts down due to power problem - DigiTimes), AAPL -1% (extends yesterday's 2.6% drop), TWX -1%. -
Aimar, kas võiksid selgitada pisut oma päevagraafikutele TA tegemist?
Tänase ja eilse börsipäeva kommentaarid on justkui vastuolulised. Alles eile väitsid $COMPQ graafikul, et "RSI kinnitus toetuselt" ning MACD puhul ootad crossoverit (ehk siis kohe-kohe võiks pikaks minna). Tänasel graafikul väidad juba, et RSI on üle hinnatud. Kas eilse päevaga toimus nii oluline liikumine, et "RSI kinnitus toetustasemelt" muutus ülehinnatuks? Sama käib MACD kohta. Kui eile oli veel crossoveri ootus ning MACD signaal madalal, siis tänasel graafikul MACD on tipus ning just vähenema hakanud.
Selle põhjal jääb mulje, et valid graafikute timeframe'i ja TA nii, et see läheks kokku sellega, kas eelturul on futuurid plussis või miinuses. Sellisest TA-st pole ju vähimatki abi raha teenimisel? Aitäh, kui leiad aega paari lausega selgitada. -
Kahel börsipäeval erinev nägemus on tingitud sellest, et ühe graafiku küünlad on nädalased (weekly chart) ning teise omad päevased (daily chart). Põhimõttelisel võivadki nad olla vastuolulised, sest pikem nägemus on alla, kui lühiajaline nägemus on veel üles. 18. detsembril viidatud Nasdaq päevalõpu graafikul crossoverit ei toimunud ning eilse päeva RSI näib olevat alla toetuse. Tase, millelt mäned päevad enne 18. detsembrit põrgati. Lühiajaline nägemus seega negatiivne ning ühtib pikaajalise negatiivse nägemusega. DJIA crossover ning 14. detsembri vastupanu murdmine tähendas lühiajalist positiivset signaali. DJIA pikemat nägemust ma välja toonud ei ole.
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miks kasutada kõiki erinevaid indikaatoreid nagu macd, rsi, sto jne.Nad ju kõik kopeerivad üksteist ja näitavad lõppkokkuvõttes suhtelist äraliikumist keskmisest aktsiahinnast on see siis 50ma või mingi muu.Kui rsi on tipus on ka macd ja sto.Neil kõigil korraga mingit pointi pole ja nad ei aita eraldi, kuna kuju on neil kõigil 80-90%sama.
Minu kuni200 graafikul on ruum hoitud ainult ühele indikaatorile, mis on ka kõige täpsem.
Pigem tuleks vaadata ühte indikaatorit ja mitut erinevat intervalli.
Mitte, et ma õpetaja oleks ja kõige targem aga 300 000 tehingu kogemus teab, mis on optimaalne. -
2000-2003 ei kasutanud ma muide ühtegi indikaatorit, ainult volüüm oli lisaks ja pool kogu kasumist on pärit sellest pimedast ajastust.Ma ei uskunud ühtegi indikaatorit peale kõhutunde.
Naljakas,et noil aegadel oleks ilma indikaaatoritea võinud osta 100 lasnamäe 2toalist.
oh aegu pimedaid ammuseid. -
Eks igaühe enda välja kujundatud metoodika. Päevasisesel kauplemisel ei kasuta ka mina peale graafiku ja paari libiseva keskmise suurt midagi. Kui indikaatorid liiguvad samas suunas ning näitaksid ühel ajal ekstreemseid piirkond ning annaksid üheseid signaale, siis oleks üsna lihtne ülehinnatud ja ülemüüdud tasemeid registreerida. Näiteks VCLKi puhul on MACD andnud väheseid whipsaws'id, RSI toetab seda, kuid tõsi, STO on samal ajal täiesti kasutu vidin. Aga iseenesest oleks võinud siia veel mitmeid kirjeldavaid indikaatoreid juurde lisada, näiteks SAR. Tegu on statistikaga, mille võib edukalt kauplemisest eraldada.
Aga pole välistatud, et kümne-paarikümne aasta pärast peetakse käsitsi graafikuid maalivate tehnikuid naeruväärseteks, sest enamiku töö teevad ära automatiseeritud kauplemissüsteemid.
