Börsipäev 2. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Baltic Morning News
Apranga (Acc.) January sales +55.1%. The Lithuanian clothing retailer posted January sales of LTL 33.6m, equal to a y-o-y growth of 55.1%. The company’s forecast for January growth was only 38.6% y-o-y, i.e. the actual increase was 40% higher than planned. At the end of January, the company operated a total of 65 stores, unchanged compared to December. However, rapid expansion is planned within the next two months when 14 new stores will be opened. To increase the operational efficiency, 4 stores will be closed and 2 rearranged. The January result is quite impressive as sales were 5% higher than in December which is considered one of the best months of the year.
Starman’s DTT cannot meet expectations. Following the successful launch of digital terrestrial television (DTT) a few months ago, first unsatisfied customers are beginning to show up. Both smaller than promised coverage area as well as narrower choice of channels (18 instead of 21) are upsetting the customers, daily Postimees wrote. Starman is referring to some troubles with contracts.
Consumers optimistic, retailers not. According to Statistics Lithuania, 32% of the respondents believed that the financial situation of their family would improve in one year (up 5% points from Dec/05) and 10% expected it to worsen (down 2% pts). At the same time, companies are less optimistic. Although almost all major retail chains indicated an improvement in their economic standing, the future outlook was a bit gloomier due to increasing wages and price pressure – nearly every large retail chain and 29% of all other companies plan to increase their workforce while 81% of businesses expect to see no change in prices in 2007.
Russia to increase Primorsk’s capacity. Bloomberg quoted Russia’s President Vladimir Putin saying that Russia planned to increase the capacity of the port of Primorsk by 50m tons a year - around 1m barrels a day – or about 68%. However, Putin did not add when the port on the Baltic Sea would be upgraded. Generally, increasing exports through Primorsk has meant fewer exports through other countries (Baltics, Belarus, etc). Thus, the capacity increase could further hurt ports in Estonia, Latvia (Ventspils Nafta) and Lithuania (Klaipedos Nafta).
Tallinn Airport construction gets financing. BBN writes that Tallinn Airport has signed a loan facility contract with Nordic Investment Bank and SEB to finance the modernization of the passenger terminal and the runaways. Under the contract, the airport authority will be able to borrow up to EUR 32m over two years. The construction works is co-financed by the Cohesion Fund. Good news for Estonian construction companies who are participating in the project (i.e. Eesti Ehitus and Aspi with EUR 10m contract).
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Uuendasime Pro all ka James River Coali väljavaateid. Lõpuks ometi on juhtkond mõistmas, et senise tootmismudeliga edasi minna ei saa ning viiakse sisse muudatusi, mis sai alguse kõrgete kuludega kaevanduste sulgemisest.
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Polo Ralph Lauren downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan
Deutsche Bank upgrades FedEx (FDX 111.89) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $130 from $117, based on valuation, re-emergent Q4 growth outlook and secular growth rates that are intact for the co and industry
Prudential upgrades Valero (VLO 56.03) to Overweight from Neutral and raises their tgt to $65 from $61, following Q406 results that beat consensus estimates, as they believe the co's strategic re-focus to operational excellence following a period of rapid expansion via acquisition is having demonstrable impact on the bottom line and see margin expansion relative to benchmarks as sustainable.
Piper Jaffray upgrades Amazon (AMZN 38.70) to Market Perform from Underperform and raises their tgt to $36 from $30, following Q406 earnings in which a strong top line was overshadowed by weak gross margins and believe shares remain fully valued
BofA upgrades Microsoft (MSFT 30.56) to Buy from Neutral
Citigroup upgrades Raytheon (RTN 52.56) to Buy from Hold
Bears Stearns downgrades Amazon.com (AMZN 38.70) to Underperform from Outperform
Goldman upgrades Murphy Oil (MUR 50.68) to Buy from neutral and adds it to their Investment
Buy ListBear Stearns reinitiates Carnival (CCL 52.15) with a Peer Perform
Bear Stearns reinitiates Royal Caribbean (RCL 45.39) with an Outperform
Arch Coal (ACI) tuli välja oma tulemustega ning arvestades BTU ja MEE kommentaare ei ole need üllatavad:
Arch Coal (ACI) beats by $0.16; guides below consensus (30.63 ) Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.55 per share, $0.16 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.39; revenues fell 0.2% year/year to $618.4 mln vs the $648.9 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $1.25-2.00 vs. $2.54 consensus. Arch is proactively reducing its discretionary capital spending in the current market environment, and is now targeting total capital spending, excluding reserve additions, of between $240 million and $280 million in 2007.
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Futuurid majandusstatistika peale kergelt plussi liikunud:
Average Workweek 33.8 vs 33.9 consensus
Unemployment Rate 4.6% vs 4.5% consensus
Hourly Earnings +0.2% vs +0.3% consensus
Nonfarm Payrolls 111K vs 150K consensus -
Sharki tänane mõte: pärivoolu võib ju sõita...aga kui vool väga kiireks läheb, on oht, et ees ootab kärestik. Tänase päeva quote, mis mulle endale meeldib, tuleb Standard & Poors'i analüütikult Sam Stovallilt:
"Investors are like people pulling petals from a daisy," says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's. "There is inflation, there's no inflation. Right now they're on the 'no inflation' petal."
Ride the Wave, but Be Ready to Bail
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/2/2007 9:09 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"It is better to err on the side of daring than the side of caution."
-- Alvin Toffler
One of the great difficulties market players face as the indices march steadily higher is striking the proper balance between action and caution. We always should maintain some level of caution because protecting our capital and our profits should always be our No. 1 goal.
However, we can't be so passive that we forego opportunities that require a certain amount of risk and daring. Just because the market is technically extended and in need of consolidation doesn't mean we should hide in a hole. There will always be some individual opportunities that offer good odds of success regardless of how distrustful you might be of the overall market.
Some market bulls believe that any talk of caution when the market is uptrending strongly is just plain stupid and misplaced. They feel that anything less than a full embrace of the positives is somehow wrong and will keep you from making any money. Invariably these folks continue their love affair with the market long after it tops out and end up giving back huge chunks of their gains at some point. They look quite smart when things are running hot but the lack of balance in their thinking eventually dooms them to mediocre performance.
The attitude that it is wrong to not totally trust the market and to take gains as we uptrend is what resulted in so many people giving back the huge profits from the parabolic move of 1999 and early 2000. Those who did so well at riding strong momentum when the market went crazy often had a very hard time changing their stance as market conditions changed.
I guarantee you that this market will have a fairly substantial pullback at some point in the not too distant future. I have no idea when and that isn't nearly as important as maintaining the proper mindset as we ride the wave. Don't get so caught up in the emotion of some of the bulls that you totally reject the idea that market conditions could change. They will and as long as you stay open-minded about that fact you will be in good shape to lock in the gains from this strong rally.
We have a mixed start as we await the Jobs report. Overseas markets were strong, oil up and gold down.
I have some appointments today so I'll be posting on a limited basis. Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: AVZA +24%, SCUR +21% (also Soleil upgrade), ISRG +16%, ERTS +6.6% (also upgrades from Needham and Deutsche), CERN +6.4%, NEXT +5.9%, MIL +4.6%, THQI +4%, YRCW +3.6%, PFWD +3.5%, SIMO +2.6%, SNCI +2.4%... Other News: BDSI +14% (announces FDA acceptance of Bioral IND), LMRA +9%, HRBN +8% (extends recent momentum since joining Nasdaq this week, see our profile at 10.20), HEPH +4.4% (positive clinical data), CHDX +4.4% (in sympathy with ISRG), REFR +4.2% (extends yesterday's 31% gain), TIVO +3.9% (Maxim upgrade), ICE +3.6% (announces Jan trading volume), COBZ +2.8% (Stifel upgrade), MSFT +1% (BofA upgrade).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: RACK -11%, INSP -8.1% (also downgrades from RBC and Needham), TMWD -9%, ERIC -6.3%, AVID -5.6% (also JP Morgan downgrade to Underweight), ILMN -5%, STP -4.4% (guidance only), AMZN -3.6% (also Bear Stearns downgrade), FLOW -2.9%, ACI -2.7%, NYX -2%... Other News: GMXR -4.3% (prices offering), LMC -2.8%, HMY -2.6%, CLI -2.6% (announces stock offering), AAPL -0.8% (discloses it has responded to informal document requests regarding stock option investigation)... Under $3: BKHM -10% (reports DecQ). -
Aeg languseks on küps....oman lühikesi posse....
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Kuuldavasti on "õhku lendamas" üks commodity-based hedge fund, mille tõttu metallihinnad (alumiinium, tsink, vask) langevad. Seetõttu ka hommikune nõrkus vastavates aktsiates..
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See kuuldus, et üks hedge fund istub LME alumiiniumis monster pika possu otsas, on juba mõnda aega ringi liikunud.
