Börsipäev 27. märts
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Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) tehniline pilt:
Merriman initiates Callaway Golf (ELY 15.80) with a Buy, as they believe the co is poised to regain its leading position in the golf equipment market with a new management team and its strongest new product lineup in years
Friedman Billings adds Urban Outfitters (URBN 25.67) to their Top Picks list saying they have seen consistent progress at both divisions throughout March; they believe that comps quarter-to-date remain in the slightly negative range (but have been positive in recent weeks) at the Urban Outfitters division and in the positive low to mid single digit range at the Anthropologie division. The firm believes that margins are up dramatically over last year as tight inventory control limits downside margin risk.
UBS downgrades Ingersoll-Rand (IR 45.33) to Neutral from Buy
BofA initiates SunPower (SPWR 42.82) with a Buy and sets a $57 tgt, as they expect SunPower to stack up well against PV manufacturers due to their effort to vertically integrate, product differentiation, and low installed costs and low capital costs and forecast the co will enjoy strong pricing power vs. competitors, drive non-GAAP gross margins of 31% in FY08 from 24% in FY06 and increase ROIC to 15% in FY08 from 11% in FY06
BofA initiates First Solar (FSLR 58.25) with a Buy and a $72 tgt saying they believe First Solar's low production cost advantage provides a competitive edge as PV prices decline. The firm has confidence that First Solar will deliver on announced capacity due to a lack of reliance on polysilicon
Täna teatas Lennar (LEN) oma esimese kvartali tulemused, jäädes kasumiprognoosidele alla ning vaatamata käibeprognooside löömisele, kukkus see pea 14%. 2007. aasta 1q kasum oli $0.43 aktsiale võrreldes 2006. aasta sama perioodi 1.58 dollarilise kasumiga aktsiale. Uute tellimuste arv kukkus 27% ning lepingute katkestamise määr ulatus 29% tasemele. Asjaolu, mille tõin välja ka eilses börsipäeva foorumis - new home sales ei sisalda lepingute katkestamiseid. Gross Margin kukkus 2006. aasta esimese kvartali 25% tasemelt 15.6% tasemele. Uut kasumiprognoosi juhtkond enam anda ei tahtnud.
Stuart Miller, President and Chief Executive Officer of Lennar Corporation, said, "The housing market continues to demonstrate overall weakness. While some markets are performing better than others, the typically stronger spring selling season has not yet materialized. These soft market conditions have been exacerbated by the well-publicized problems in the subprime lending market."
Mr. Miller concluded, "Given the state of the market, we do not expect to achieve our previously stated 2007 earnings goal, and we are not comfortable providing a new earnings goal at this time. Our company remains focused on managing through this downturn with a balance sheet first strategy, maintaining ample liquidity to position us well for future opportunities."
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Tänane Sharki kommentaar on eilse päeva teisest poolest. Põhjus lihtne - mees oli hommikul arvuti tagant lihtsalt eemal.
Market's on Shaky Ground
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/26/2007 2:31 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
The weak housing report this morning, and the fact that we have been slowly inching back, highlights the main issue the market is grappling with. On one hand, if economic data are weak, that increases the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates even if inflation may not be as low as the central bank likes.
The market always likes to see interest rates fall, which was made very obvious by the euphoric reaction to the hint of more dovishness in the FOMC policy statement last Wednesday.
On the other hand, a weak economy carries some pretty heavy baggage. We aren't going to see lower interest rates unless we also see some negatives such as slower growth, pressure on the consumer, trouble in the housing market and repercussions for a host of businesses.
Although the prospect of lower interest rates is helping the market right now, the events that might actually lead to actual rate cuts are not so market-friendly. A further problem is that a rate cut -- while an economic stimulus -- may cause some other problems on the inflation front and with the dollar. That is the tug of war we are undergoing right now.
At the moment, the bulls continue to have the advantage, but the reasoning for their continued buying support is suspect and it won't take much to shift sentiment. The bears are still awfully skittish, and that is giving the market some support. But it would not be at all surprising to see another sudden spike down similar to the three we have had starting back on Feb. 27.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ELTK +10.3%, GME +4.8%... Alternative energy stocks up on solar initiations, FCEL & MVIS news: FCEL +6.9% (Connecticut clean energy fund selects 68 megawatts of projects using co's power plants), MVIS +6.2% (announces product development agreement with a second global Tier 1 automotive partner), DSTI +5.4%, FSLR +3.8%, ASTI +3.9%, SPWR +2.6%, TSL +1.7%, STP +1.5% ... Other news: NUVO +37.9% (receives FDA fast track status for rNAPc2 in first- and second-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer), REGN +18.0% (announces positive interim Phase 2 data for VEGF Trap-Eye in age-related macular degeneration), ARTX +10.7% (continued momentum from yesterday afternoon's Boeing order), CPHD +6.7% (positive comments by Cramer), CVTX +5.2% (A.C.C. press release shows Ranexa reduces recurrent Ischemia in Merlin - Cantor), AUDC +4.2% (last night Soros Fund Mgmt discloses 6.4% stake), CHU +3.4% & CHL -0.8% (China's govt and phone co's plan to spend $3.5 bln on nation's first high-speed wireless network - Bloomberg), DCX +3.2% (to postpone release of Q1 results; article notes rumors swirl about possible buyers for Chrysler unit - WSJ), PDLI +2.4% (positive comments by Cramer), PTNR +1.5% and WFR +0.8% (positive mentions in newsletter). -
Consumer Confidence 107.2 vs 109.0 consensus, prior 112.5 was a five year high
Fed Staffer: Subprime borrowers "may face more difficulty" in next one to two years - Reuters
Fed Staffer: Subprime mortgage market self-correcting, but Fed remains concerned - Reuters -
QID liigub kummaliselt, kui QQQQ on juba -0,5% siis QID istub ikka + 0,02% peal. Peaks olema nii + 1 % kandis!
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Tundub, et mingi kala on eilsete QID close hindadega. Osadel näitab 52.50 ja teistel 52.15
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Date Close/Last Volume
12:13 52.670 4,484,320*
03/26/2007 52.500 12,530,730
03/23/2007 52.770 7,716,675
03/22/2007 52.520 12,407,020
03/21/2007 52.110 19,160,330 -
ikkagi on kala. võrdlesin eilset suva kellaaega ja seda kus täna QQQQ on ja kus QID on, ei klapi. QIDi taotlus on saavutada "võimalikult lähedane" 2 kordne vice versa liikumine protsentuaalselt QQQQ-le. Tänane QIDi ja QQQQ erinevus
a) QQQQ optsioonide volatiilsusest, lepingute vahetamisest, futuuride volatiilsusest või lepingute vahetamisest (mingite derivatiivide najal peab QID seisma)
b) mingi ebaefektiivsus?!
c).......... -
Sama segane on asi ka QLD ga.
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Nagu olen ka varem välja pakkunud, ongi tasapisi tähelepanu hakanud liikuma juba suvelõpu orkaanide võimalikule hävitustööle.
Accuweather sees U.S. Gulf at higher risk for destructive weather in 2007 hurricane season than 2006 - Reuters -
Meie Pro all olev idee GMKT on viimastel päevadel väga ilusasti käitunud ning täna päeva keskel toimus kiire lühiajaline hüpe ülespoole. Põhjuseks upgrade suure maja Citigroupi poolt. Soovitus tõsteti varasema 'Müü' pealt 'Hoia' peale ja hinnasiht liigutati $16.50 pealt $19.50ni. Usutavasti teeme varsti sellest lühikese kokkuvõtte ka meie ideed järgivatele Pro klientidele.
GMarket spikes to session highs; strength attributed to intraday upgrade at tier-1 firm. -
<22:02> [zelinski] Tere. Kas keegi oskab seletada, eile oli QQQQ=44.- ja QID =53,15, täna
QQQQ=44.- ja QID 52,80?
<22:03> [abesiki] keegi ei oska seda seletada seni
<22:04> [speedy conzales] ma oskan
<22:04> [speedy conzales] dividendid
<22:04> [abesiki] kindel?
<22:05> [speedy conzales] see vist iga kvartali lõpus
<22:05> [speedy conzales] detsembri lõpus sama lugu
<22:05> [speedy conzales] kõik ETF-d dippisid
<22:05> [speedy conzales] kes hoiavad, saavad cashi kontole
<22:05> [abesiki] moment
<22:06> [abesiki] hmm pane see variant foorumisse ka -
[speedy conzales] panin
[speedy conzales] ;-))
[zelinski] Leidsin 20.dets. 2006 dividendid 0,567 ja sama võrra alanes avanemishind.
[abesiki] QIDil?
[zelinski] jah, teg. sulgemishin.
[abesiki] aga kuram, ma ei saa aru miks peaks dividendid kottima QIDi?
[abesiki] peaks põhinema derivatiividel
[abesiki] ju
[abesiki] aga dividendid vbla liigutavad SSF, optsioone ja mida veel
[zelinski] QID on kui aktsia?
[abesiki] ei ole aktsia
[abesiki] etf
[zelinski] jääb pärast kodutööks
[abesiki] ei ole hea olla nii lollid nagu meie oleme:D ei viitsi netist kaevata ka -
Huvitav mõte, mida kõrva taha panna:
According to Gross, Fed will cut rates "significantly" in the next few years if home prices stay below peak -
QID-le arvestati eile dividendid 0,342. Allikas:Yahoo
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Nii kummaline kui see ka ei ole, aga jah ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES maksab kvartaalset dividendi.
Eelmine laekumine oli 28.12.2006, siis maksti välja 0.566590 USD/osaku eest (tulumaks 30%).
Täiesti mõttetu tegevus minu arvates arvestades selle instrumendi sisu (hedge), ajab ainult arvestuse segamini.
