Börsipäev 29. mai
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Bloombergis täna huvitav artikkel lühikeseks müüdud aktsiate osakaalust NYSE-l. Lühikeseks müüdud aktsiate osakaal on NYSE-l jõudnud 3.1%-ni kõigist väljasolevatest aktsiatest. See on kõrgeim lühikeste osakaal vähemalt alates 1931. aastast. Laenatud aktsiad tuleb ühel hetkel tagasi osta, tuues niimoodi kaasa mitmetesse miljarditesse ulatuva ostusurve. Short Interest on tõusnud pea 12 miljardi aktsiani. Kõrge lühikeste osakaal muudab aga pullid veel optimistlikumaks.
Jaapani töötuse määr langes 9-aasta madalaimale tasemele aprillis ning majapidamised suurendasid oma kulutusi 4. kuud järjest. Sellised näidud toetavad Jaapani Keskpanga senist poliitikat ning Morgan Stanley Jaapani analüütik Takehiro Sato on öelnud, et poleks üllatunud, kui Juuli kohtumisel mõni liige ka intressimäärade tõstmise poolt oleks.
Jaapani jeeni liikumist saab jälgida ka ca 6 kuud tagasi USA börsil loodud Currency shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) läbi.
Aasia turud hetkel enamuses rohelised. -
ma olen alati uskunud, et mida rohkem inimesi usub "sell in May..." toimimisse, seda suurem tõenäosus on turu tõusuks. nüüd siis ongi vist käes:)
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"sell in May..." ei tähenda ,et langus peaks tulema mais,välk võib ka alles augustis sisse lüüa aga tõenäoliselt need kes mais müüsid saavad septembris,oktoobris odavamalt tagasi osta.
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seda küll, aga kui inimesed massiliselt maikuus lühikeseks müüvad, siis "sell in May" enam ei toida. nagu tead, kaotavad 90% kauplejatest raha. seega kui näiteks 90% turuosalisi (kõik turuosalised pole muidugi kauplejad, aga usun et maikuus müüjate arv suureneb iga aastaga, juhul, kui see töötab loomulikult) hakkaks maikuus lühikeseks müüma, või lihtsalt müüma, siis oleks ka ilmselge, et lutti nad saavad.
sell in may ei tähenda loomulikult, et langus peaks tulema mais. ta võib tulla ka märtsis või aprillis:) aga nagu ma ütlesin, mida rohkem turuosalisi sellesse usub, seda rohkem ka turgu alla müüakse. Mõni kavalpea võib hakata ka varem müüma.
välk võib ka suvalisel ajal ja suvalises kohas sisse lüüa. Võib ka mitu korda samasse kohta. -
Kui kõik maikuus lühikeseks müüma asuvad, siis turg ju langebki 8-) Ehk massikäitumine tekitab turul trendi ja targad on need, kes trendiga kaasa lähevad.
Probleem on pigem see, kui kõik lüritavad võimalikult varakult oma positisioone tagasi soetada - sest viimasele teadupärast tooli ei jätku. Siis jääb trend langustrend lühikeseks ning asendub hoopis ostupaanikaga.
Aga AFAIK, sell-in-may ei pruugi tähendada seda, et maist septembrini turg tingimata langeks. Lihtsalt selle perioodi ajalooline keskmine tootlus on jäänud alla nii september-aprill perioodi, kui ka võlakirjade keskmisele tootlusele. -
turg on tõusnud 21.07.06 alates, ehk üle 10 kuu järjest, pikem tõus on olnud ainult 2003 aastal, mis oli 11 kuud järjest! see pauk peab varsti toimuma, sest aktsiate hinnad on tipus ja siiski on suvi tulemas, kus vaevalt investorid selliste hindade puhul puhkuse ajaks positsioonid kätte jätavad
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Nafta hinnad Londonis $70 juures:
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday to $70 a barrel in London on nagging concerns over Nigerian crude production at the start of peak gasoline demand in top consumer, the United States. London Brent crude was up 29 cents at $70.00 a barrel by 0646 GMT, after hitting $70.05 earlier. It had tumbled 98 cents on Monday after Nigerian unions suspended a two-day strike that had threatened to halt oil flows. -
Taaskord on päevakorda tõusnud söe subsideerimine ja USA sõltumatus energiast:
NY Times reports even as Congressional leaders draft legislation to reduce greenhouse gases linked to global warming, a powerful roster of Democrats and Republicans is pushing to subsidize coal as the king of alternative fuels. Prodded by intense lobbying from the coal industry, lawmakers from coal states are proposing that taxpayers guarantee billions of dollars in construction loans for coal-to-liquid production plants, guarantee minimum prices for the new fuel, and guarantee big govt purchases for the next 25 years. With both House and Senate Democrats hoping to pass "energy independence" bills by mid-July, coal supporters argue that coal-based fuels are more American than gasoline and potentially greener than ethanol. Coal cos have spent millions of dollars lobbying on the issue, and have marshaled allies in organized labor, the Air Force and fuel-burning industries like the airlines. Peabody Energy (BTU) urged in a recent advertising campaign that people "imagine a world where our country runs on energy from Middle America instead of the Middle East."
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Yahoo! (YHOO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill
eBay (EBAY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill
Bear Stearns initiates MasterCard (MA 139.07) with an Outperform and a $184 tgt
BofA believes RSH and BJ are becoming increasingly vulnerable as valuations are at levels that firm finds unsustainable. From a valuation standpoint, names that look particularly compelling relative to firm's peak/trough analysis include Target (TGT), Lowes (LOW), and Staples (SPLS). Firm believes these three cos exhibit similar characteristics: 1) they are strong operators, 2) they lack near term catalysts, 3) their P/E multiples are suffering from general fears of an economic slowdown. -
Eelmisel kuul jäi Bofa real estate agent survey ootustele alla jäämist ning prognoositi järgnevatel kuudel taastumist. Kuuldavasti on tänane raport siiski hullem ning kasvavad varud hinnalanguste valguses on vastavat indeksit langetanud veelgi:
Aprill 27 (Bofa real estate agent survey ): Our call today in a nutshell. Traffic falls further below expectations in April.Agents noted weaker traffic in April, citing mortgage troubles and increased hesitation, as buyers see the excess inventory and expect further price declines. Ourtraffic index measured 31.1, 9.1 points below 40.1 in March. We think the lower volume in April will likely lead to further price competition. Agents noted fallingprices again in April, with our price index measuring 33.7, from 35.3 in March(readings below 50 indicate falling prices). Our time to sell index, which has beena good leading indicator of pricing also worsened to 22.0 from 26.8 in March (any readings below 50 indicate a lengthening time to sell). Greatest declines in traffic seen in Southern California and Texas. While the weak demand is worrisome, wethink that much was driven by negative sentiment over the mortgage challenges,rather than tighter lending itself. As such, we think sentiment may rebound slightlyin coming months.
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Shark usub, et kui sellenädalane põrge peaks alla müüdama, võib rääkida meeleolu muutusest.
Action in the Week Ahead Is Pivotal
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/29/2007 7:43 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
The right word may be effective, but no word was ever as effective as a rightly timed pause.
-- Mark Twain
As the summer season starts its traditional kickoff, the big issue for us to ponder is where the market is finally due for a pause. Except for one notable exception at the end of February, we have been going straight up since last August. The rate of the climb has become even steeper since that dip in late February, and few can argue that the DJIA is not technically extended.
Last Thursday we suffered a pretty good bout of profit-taking on lousy breadth and increased volume. On Friday we managed pretty typical holiday trading and bounced back on light volume. It would be a mistake to read anything significant into that sort of action on the day before a three-day weekend, which makes this week a particularly important one in determining whether momentum will continue or whether we might finally see a bit of pause.
We have quite a bit of economic data for the market to contemplate this week, and buyout frenzy is also going to continue to be a major focus. The bears' biggest fear is that the buyouts will continue to roll in steadily enough to prevent any real pullback in the market. On the other hand, there are signs that the rally is becoming increasingly narrow and that market players are a bit quicker to hit the sell button at the first sign of any weakness.
Time and again, the dip buyers have jumped in following any weakness like we had last Thursday, driving us straight back up again. What we haven't seen happen in quite a while is a failed bounce after a dip. That is what makes the action this week particularly important. If the bulls once again ramp the market straight back up, it is going to be very tough to argue with this market. However, if the bounce that started on Friday fails this week, that is going to cause plenty of talk about how the character of the market may finally be undergoing a change.
We have a pretty typical upbeat start to the week. As expected, there are a few buyout deals on the wires helping the mood, and overseas markets are mostly positive following lower-than-expected unemployment in Japan and buying in the telecom sector in Europe. Oil is taking a hit this morning, and gold is bouncing.
It is going to be very interesting to see if we can build on Friday's bounce, and I am not particularly interested in jumping in here at the open. -
Tänast päeva alustab USA turg ca 0.2%lise plussiga.
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: VOD +3.3%... Announced M&A and newspaper reports of potential M&A: WNG +14.6% (to be acquired by URS), BDY +22.5% (CEO offers to buy co for $21.50/share), AV +16.3% (WSJ reports AV may be next telecom takeover call), INSP +8.7% (Bloomberg reports that LaNetro may buy co for $800 mln Euros), CDWC +8.5% (WSJ reports buyout firms are in talks to purchase co), ASN +6.8% (WSJ reports that co is near a sale)... Other news: BLG +11.2% (Chap Cap Activist Partners recommends co explore sale, stock upgraded to Outperform at CIBC), RTK +5.6% (Peabody and Rentech enter into development and coal supply agreements), CHINA +5.0% (expands strategic partnerships with Google and China Mobile), LWSN +3.9% (WSJ highlights co), CCL +3.1%.
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping Down: CUP -17.5% (co announces expiration of exclusivity period granted to a third party to facilitate discussions), EYE -12.7% (announced the voluntary recall of Complete MoisturePlus multipurpose solution), JSDA -8.1% (mentioned negatively in Barron's), BOL -4.2% (gapping down in sympathy with EYE; also on Friday EYE confirmed an interest in Bausch & Lomb), BRLC -3.7% (Barron's raises questions about the accounting practices at BRLC), VRSN -2.0% (co announces new CEO following resignation of prior CEO). -
ValueClicki ümber taas spekulatsioonid. Briefing: ValueClick ticks higher in recent trade as renewed takeover chatter makes the round; today we are hearing a YHOO for VCLK rumor.
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300 evakuerade vid fabriksbrand
En företag med cirka 300 anställda i Dalstorp utanför Borås fick utrymmas på tisdagen sedan det börjat brinna i anläggningen vid 14-tiden. Räddningspersonal från fyra brandkårer deltog i släckningsarbetet. -
Mida tähendab : müü mais? Minuarust ei ole sel mingit tähtsust. Loeb kaks asja-hind ja käive. Praeguse käibe juures on näha, et pullid on ettevaatlikud ja karud lakuvad haavu. Selline ei ühele- ega teiselepoole turg.
Mis pulle müümast hoiab, on ülevõtmiste laine. Keegi ei taha ju täna müües homsest pirukast ilma jääda. Spekulatsioonid on pea igas harus, kus on neid toimunud. Kui lõpuks selgub, et tegijatel raha otsas ja spekulatsioonidel ei ole alust, näeme pullide lavalt lahkumist ja sõrgade kõminal.
Käibe juurde tagasi. Kui turg tõuseb ilma suurema käibeta, mida see küll tähendada võiks?
Visake oma kõhutunne metsa ja jälgige, mitte spekuleerige. Kas langus on homme või aastapärast ei oma täna tähtsust, kuna sa seda ei tea. Kui sa täna tunde ajel lühikeseks lähed võid ÕIGE languse ajal rahata olla. -
Seda ma tahtsingi öelda kogu oma mölaga, et kui teed nii, nagu enamus teeb, siis ei saa sa ka midagi erinevat sellestsamast enamusest. Sest enamus kaotab turgudel raha. On väga palju väga häid või lausa suurepäraseid ideid ja strateegiaid, kuid paraku toimivad need siiski ainult juhul, kui sa oled ainuke, või siis üks vähestest kes seda rakendab. Hea idee lakkab olemast, kui sul on meeletult palju järgijaid.
Aga vabandan läbustamise pärast ja proovin edaspidi oma nokka vähem lahti teha;-)
