Börsipäev 24. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Dr. Henry Kaufman (President, Henry Kaufman&Compani; Board of Directors, Lehman Brothers): Not YET in the extreme crysis. Taaskord üks huvitav ja avameelne video olukorrast krediidimaailmas, millele soovitan pilgu peale visata.
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Lahedad noorukid, hea, et mõlemad ikka intervjuu lõpuni vastu pidasid :) (Kaufman muidugi kõva veteran ja ta juttu tasub kindlasti kuulata).
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Jap, ise vaatasin ka alguses, et mõnusad "mõhk-ja-tölpa" näevad välja, aga eks selle vanusega ka palju tarkust kogutud tõesti : )
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kaameramees häiris, jäi tunne et telefonile sarnase asjaga oleks filmitud. Kaufmani seljataga oli mingi laualamp kah mängu pandud, et noorukid paremini valgustatud saaksid. Aga jutt ise midagi uut esile ei toonud.
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Tõesti, mõnusad Mõhk ja Tölpa, lips püksivärvli vahel. :-))
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Juulikuu kestvuskaupade tellimused on tugevad, tõustes +5.9% vs oodatud +1.0% (eelmine kuu oli +1.3%) ning ka transpot välja jättes olid tellimused oodatust paremad +3.7% vs konsensus +0.6% (eelmine kuu -0.1%).
Futuurid on korralikku majanduskeskkonda indikeeriva raporti peale ülespoole liikumas, kuid arvestades, et näidud käivad juulikuu kohta, mil meeleolud olid finants-, krediidi ja muudel turgudel veel teistsugused, tasuks antud numbritesse ehk siiski ettevaatusega suhtuda. -
Bloombergist on kuulda 11 aastaga on kunstiteoste hinnad maailmas 4-kordistunud. Ainuüksi sellel aastal on tõus olnud 50% ning tõusu on aidanud kõrged naftahinnad ning uusrikkad Venemaalt, Hiinalt ja mujalt. Kuid hedge-fondide ja aktsiaturu probleemid võivad ka kuumal kunstiturul hindu allapoole tuua. Seega nagu näha, on hinnalanguse hirmud jõudnud juba maailma erinevatele turgudele - subprime ja prime laenud, kommertslaenud, krediidireitingud, arenenud ja arenevad aktsiaturud ja nüüd veel ehk ka kunst....
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WSJ-s artikkel kvantfondide (quantitative hedge funds) viimase aja kaotustest. Fondijuhid toovad ühe huvitava põhjusena välja, et nende statistilised mudelid andsid müügisignaale samal ajal ning kuna osalust omatakse tihti samades ettevõtetes, siis saigi tulemus nukker. Näiteks NVR aktsiaid omasid Numeric Investors, Renaissance ja AQR Capital Management, kõik kvantfondid ning kolme peale hoiti 3,6% aktsiatest.
Fondide mudelite kohaselt oli nutikas osta madalate kordajatega väikeettevõtteid, kuid turu volatiilsuse ajal kerkisid üles kartused nende äride kohandumisvõimest ning aktsiaid asuti müüma. On ju väiksemad ettevõtted vastuvõtlikumad majandusolukorrale. Samuti mängiti palju small-capide ülevõtmiste peale, kuid krediiditingimuste karmistumisel lootus vähenes ning positsioone hakati müüma.
Ettevõtete seas, mille turuväärtus jääb $2-10 miljardi vahele, leiti kokku 148 ettevõtet, kus kvantfondid omasid üle 5% osaluse. Nendest ettevõtetest kooosnev grupp oli võrdlusgrupile alla jäänud. Sama lugu oli ka small-capidega, nende hulgast leiti 473 ettevõtet ühel 5% hedge-fondide osalusega ning ka see grupp jäi võrdlusindeksile alla. -
Suuri liikumisi täna Euroopa ja Aasia turgudel pole olnud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.20%
Prantsusmaa CAC -0.39%
Inglismaa FTSE +0.26%
Hispaania IBEX -0.38%
Venemaa RTS +0.04%
Poola WIG +0.53%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.41%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.20%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.50%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.28%
Tai Set -0.09%
India Sensex +1.84%
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Don't Be Concerned About Missing Out
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/24/2007 7:19 AM EDT
Don't be afraid of missing opportunities. Behind every failure is an opportunity somebody wishes they had missed.
-- Lily Tomlin
Although dramatic credit issues are likely to continue to dominate the headlines, the market is poised for some choppy and random action. The waning days of summer and the great persistent uncertainty over macro matters lends itself to moving slowly and not making major bets. We will continue to see some volatility, but this is very likely to be a trading-range market for a while.
There are many market players now anxious to declare the recent correction over, but there is a very strong undercurrent of caution that should help keep the market contained. A lot of market players believe there is more bad news out there that is going to hit at some point, and they want to wait see if it hits. If things calm down for a while, they will then deploy their capital more aggressively.
The market action over the past week seems to indicate that optimism has been restored. However, much of it seems to be driven by the hope that the Fed is going to be cutting interest rates. The irony is that if the market continues to act like it has over the past week then there wouldn't be any need for the Fed to cut. The recent market action seems to indicate that any credit problems out there are well contained and not bleeding into the broader economy. So what do we need the Fed for?
The durable-goods and housing reports this morning are going to be particularly interesting in helping us understand the market mood. If the reports are strong, that would tend to put the Fed on hold as far as rate cuts go. If the market is being driven higher by hopes of a cut, then strong reports would be a negative. On the other hand, if we have weak reports, that will increase the likelihood of a Fed cut but it also indicates that we may be headed for a economic slowdown.
So is it better we have a weak economy and the prospect of a Fed that is cutting rates or a strong economy with the Fed on hold? The reaction to these reports will give us some indications of what the market is thinking.
I'm concerned that the action over the past week has already priced in a Fed cut to some degree and that economic news, strong or weak, is likely to garner a negative reaction. If the numbers are strong, no Fed cut, and if the numbers are weak, the cut is already priced in.
Overall, I'm not seeing the opportunity to make major moves right now. We need to be patient and not worry about missing out. We should have greatly clarity developing eventually, but for now, the potential for news surprises remains very high.
We have slightly negative action in the early going. Overseas markets were mostly down with talk about Japan taking action to prop up interest rates, which have been falling back close to zero.
None.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ASIA +5.4%, BKC +5.1%, ANN +2.9%... Other news: MENT +11.7% (after the close co clarified Q3 outlook information; stock was upgraded at Merrill this morning), ARNA +7.0% (profiled in Inside Wall Street - BusinessWeek Online), ACH +6.1% (multiple financial media outlets are highlighting a South China Morning Post story which said ACH expects price recovery as domestic output growth slows - see 8:40 comment), AYR +5.6% (positive Cramer comments), MT +4.0% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), WFMI +2.7% & OATS +2.3% (Court denies FTC's request for stay pending appeal; WFMI and OATS legally cleared to proceed with merger), CCBL +3.9% (FBR made positive comments following yesterday's 19% sell-off after reporting earnings), MPEL +3.3% (initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank), RTP +2.9% (mentioned in Bloomberg.com story regarding ACH and aluminum prices).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: CSUN -23.0%, SNIC -12.5%, MRVL -9.0%, QADI -10.4%... Other news: ACF -6.1% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - Reuters), CFC -1.5% (still checking for anything new). -
Uute majade müük juulikuus 0.87 mln vs oodatud 0.825 mln maja (eelmine kuu oli 0.846 mln).
